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[quote=Anonymous]Russia had a population of 144 million, 2/3rds of which were in the 15-64 age range (conscript-able/workforce age), of approximately 96M.   Russia has about 26M children ages 0 to 15 and 24.5M (17%) are 65+.  There are 42M pensioners in Russia.  Assuming all elderly are pensioners, that means there are about 17.5M pensioners within the workforce/conscript-able range that need to be removed from the 96M, leaving 78.5M.  Approximately half are women (generally non-conscript-able), leaving about 39M conscript-able / workforce males.  In 2022, about 37M men (and 35M women) worked in Russia.  That means 11M men weren't in the workforce.  That somewhat jives with the Central Bank's assertion that Russia has record low unemployment of 3%, once you take out ~2% for those in jail, mental institutions,  those that fled the country, etc.

If Ukrainian casualty reports are accurate (e.g. ~380K), that is about 1% (1 out of every 100 working / conscriptable males in Russia).

Think about this a moment. 1% of income-earning males in Russia are gone.  That productivity, their offspring, the income for family and relatives - poof.  That 1% loss doesn't represent Russian military combat effectiveness loss, it represents the overall productivity loss of the country itself.  Now multiply this by x10 of the lives they affected (approximately 3.8 million friends, children, wives or other relatives, or 3% of Russia effected by trauma, shock, horror, etc.).  Russia has a land area of 6.6M sq miles.  That means Russia has a population density of about 22 people per square mile.  That's about the same population density as Idaho (and makes Nevada or Nebraska seem buff by comparison).

What if half of all US Idaho state residents had to pay for pensions for the other half of Idaho's population.  If you took away 1% of that 50% of working/conscript-able males to occupy, say New Hampshire, how would Idaho do?  What if they couldn't control New Hampshire and took 2% of Idaho's males?  For Russia to 'win' militarily in Ukraine, that's exactly what has to happen.  Additionally, they would have to do that for a long period of time (training troops, fighting in the war, etc.).

To show how truly stupid Kremlin planners are, New Hampshire is about 9,350 sq mi with the same population density of Ukraine.  Ukraine is about 233,062 sq mi, or about 25 "New Hampshire's big".  If the Kremlin doesn't have the troops to 'win' now, after Putin's re-election in March, it will be clear that full mobilization will be necessary to militarily 'win' in Ukraine.  It also means those troops would need to indefinitely occupy Ukraine, since the majority of Ukrainians would never accept Russian rule again.  The only way to quickly disengage a massive Russian occupation force would be to commit mass genocide of the local Ukrainian population or use nuclear weapons.  The Ukrainians know this, which is why they'll never surrender - even if they receive no exernal aid from the West.

Win or lose militarily, I think Russia is doomed.  Any Russian supporting the Russian Government right now is a total fool.[/quote]

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