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Reply to "Military observations on Ukraine invasion"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I don't see any evidence to support this possible scenario, but I'm curious what others think: is there a chance that Putin actually wants to draw NATO into Ukraine in order to ignite a broader conflict? Perhaps, so far, he has been fighting with one arm behind his back, and he will only swing with both fists once NATO forces enter Ukraine. Additionally, with NATO deployed in Ukraine, is there a risk that China would then enter the conflict, fighting alongside of Russia? [/quote] Putin absolutely wants to draw NATO in so he can strengthen his domestic position within Russia. The "woe is us, NATO is so mean to Russia" narrative plays very well domestically but he really can't deploy that narrative effectively when Russia is just shelling civilians in the Ukraine. China absolutely will NOT put boots on the ground to fight alongside Russians. [b]Their best case scenario is to sit back and watch Russia and the Western democracies destroy each other.[/b] [/quote] No, their best case scenario is for Russia to either win or quit now and go home quickly. The first one isn't happening. And so far, neither is the second. Russia is a major partner for China. So is *everyone else*. If China picks Russia and publicly backs them, they'll be on the wrong side of *everyone else*. But if they abandon Russia entirely, it would hurt them and be destabilizing worldwide. Trying to stay neutral is the best they can do now. This war is not what they want. Unless Russia was able to quickly and effectively take Kyiv/Ukraine, they would have preferred for none of this to happen. [/quote]
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