Anonymous
02/15/2024 19:39
Subject: Re:2024 Election Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
+1 We already had the 2022 Midterms and usually the party of the president loses big in the federal elections held immediately following the presidential election. That didn’t happen in 2022. Democrats lost control of the House but just barely and R’s underperformed across the board. I would 100% rather be us than them right now! Yes I know things are different when it comes to Trump vs. any other Republican, but he already lost to Biden once.
Democrats will certainly take back the House in 24. But it's a bad map for Democrats in the Senate this election cycle. I don't see how they retain it. It's a really bad map. They'll get it back in 26, but in the meantime....
Polling is not looking good for Biden. He's an elderly geriatric who really shouldn't be in the Oval Office making life and death decisions.
Trump is Trump. Roughly a third of the country subscribes to that insanity. And a third will be enough when Democrats put up a weak candidate and third parties perform strongly.
So, likely result is Trump prez, Republicans take the Senate, and Democrats take back the House.
I don’t think you understand how central the right to bodily autonomy is to people.
+1. The special election yesterday was illustrative. On this issue...the GOP candidate was a mess. She refused to take a clear position.
We can tolerate a candidate that is personally against abortion as long as they will actively support pro choice, roe level protection policies. If the candidate tries to mealy mouth that, they are out. We are interested in getting out rights back and we expect out representatives to fight for that.
And trump will never be credible if he tries to take a pro choice position. That ship sailed with Dobbs.
And also, Trump will never be credible. Full stop. I oppose him. But even someone who is mostly aligned with him has to acknowledge (privately if not publicly) that he lies on a scale the dwarfs any other public figure.
all politicians lie their butt off, including both Trump and Biden, but Biden's brain is such mush he can't remember simple things when he served as VP or when his son died. no matter what side you are on, you have to admit Biden is getting less fit to serve by the day.
Trump was hard pressed to remember his youngest son in an interview 5 years ago but sure Biden’s the one whose brain is turning to mush.
https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2019/09/trump-vaping-ban-forget-barron-son-colbert-kimmel-trevor-noah
Anonymous
02/15/2024 19:16
Subject: Re:2024 Election Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
+1 We already had the 2022 Midterms and usually the party of the president loses big in the federal elections held immediately following the presidential election. That didn’t happen in 2022. Democrats lost control of the House but just barely and R’s underperformed across the board. I would 100% rather be us than them right now! Yes I know things are different when it comes to Trump vs. any other Republican, but he already lost to Biden once.
Democrats will certainly take back the House in 24. But it's a bad map for Democrats in the Senate this election cycle. I don't see how they retain it. It's a really bad map. They'll get it back in 26, but in the meantime....
Polling is not looking good for Biden. He's an elderly geriatric who really shouldn't be in the Oval Office making life and death decisions.
Trump is Trump. Roughly a third of the country subscribes to that insanity. And a third will be enough when Democrats put up a weak candidate and third parties perform strongly.
So, likely result is Trump prez, Republicans take the Senate, and Democrats take back the House.
I don’t think you understand how central the right to bodily autonomy is to people.
+1. The special election yesterday was illustrative. On this issue...the GOP candidate was a mess. She refused to take a clear position.
We can tolerate a candidate that is personally against abortion as long as they will actively support pro choice, roe level protection policies. If the candidate tries to mealy mouth that, they are out. We are interested in getting out rights back and we expect out representatives to fight for that.
And trump will never be credible if he tries to take a pro choice position. That ship sailed with Dobbs.
And also, Trump will never be credible. Full stop. I oppose him. But even someone who is mostly aligned with him has to acknowledge (privately if not publicly) that he lies on a scale the dwarfs any other public figure.
all politicians lie their butt off, including both Trump and Biden, but Biden's brain is such mush he can't remember simple things when he served as VP or when his son died. no matter what side you are on, you have to admit Biden is getting less fit to serve by the day.
Well trump is going to lose. Badly.
Anonymous
02/15/2024 17:56
Subject: Re:2024 Election Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
+1 We already had the 2022 Midterms and usually the party of the president loses big in the federal elections held immediately following the presidential election. That didn’t happen in 2022. Democrats lost control of the House but just barely and R’s underperformed across the board. I would 100% rather be us than them right now! Yes I know things are different when it comes to Trump vs. any other Republican, but he already lost to Biden once.
Democrats will certainly take back the House in 24. But it's a bad map for Democrats in the Senate this election cycle. I don't see how they retain it. It's a really bad map. They'll get it back in 26, but in the meantime....
Polling is not looking good for Biden. He's an elderly geriatric who really shouldn't be in the Oval Office making life and death decisions.
Trump is Trump. Roughly a third of the country subscribes to that insanity. And a third will be enough when Democrats put up a weak candidate and third parties perform strongly.
So, likely result is Trump prez, Republicans take the Senate, and Democrats take back the House.
I don’t think you understand how central the right to bodily autonomy is to people.
+1. The special election yesterday was illustrative. On this issue...the GOP candidate was a mess. She refused to take a clear position.
We can tolerate a candidate that is personally against abortion as long as they will actively support pro choice, roe level protection policies. If the candidate tries to mealy mouth that, they are out. We are interested in getting out rights back and we expect out representatives to fight for that.
And trump will never be credible if he tries to take a pro choice position. That ship sailed with Dobbs.
And also, Trump will never be credible. Full stop. I oppose him. But even someone who is mostly aligned with him has to acknowledge (privately if not publicly) that he lies on a scale the dwarfs any other public figure.
all politicians lie their butt off, including both Trump and Biden, but Biden's brain is such mush he can't remember simple things when he served as VP or when his son died. no matter what side you are on, you have to admit Biden is getting less fit to serve by the day.
Anonymous
02/15/2024 15:50
Subject: 2024 Election Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:No matter how many votes Trump gets in November, he'll claim he won. And, because of this, some number of Trump supporters will take up arms against the United States again.
He's a threat to democracy, and the number of Republicans who simply don't care about the threat he poses is beyond disturbing.
You seem to be under the impression he’s going to lose… have you looked a national and swing state polls recently?
Or betting odds?
Trump is the favorite to win, currently.
Who needs polls? Look at all the recent special elections for better indications of what really happens on elections day.
Yeah, sure. Don’t be all *surprised pikachu face when November comes around, though.
Today's polling models are horribly inaccurate. The current polling models use landlines to call random numbers. But the owners of landlines are predominantly older voters who typically lean right. Younger voters who typically lean left have cell phones only, or on-line virtual phones which are not in the lists for pollsters to call. So they are leaving out huge swaths of voters, especially ones that lean left. If you look at the 2022 and 2023 off-year elections, in both years, in states where the abortion issue came up, young voters (under 30) came out in record numbers and voted in large majorities for the abortion and democratic candidates. I would guess that less than 10%, likely less than 5% of those voters have land-lines and so they are a completely invisible demographic to the current polling models.
Until the polling models can find a way to adapt to the changing communications demographics, they will continue to be horribly inaccurate and lean far more right than actual voter turnout. Try comparing these polls to exit polls of actual physical voters and you'll see the discrepencies largely reflected.
I agree. I get a lot of texts asking to poll me but I just report as junk. I can't imagine anyone but old people is willing to pick up the phone or answer rando texts.
Anonymous
02/15/2024 15:41
Subject: 2024 Election Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:And if they are using landlines and that is so obviously flawed, why does the media carry on about these clearly inaccurate polls?
It's a cheap story to write or produce.
Cheap and easy. One of my most memorable meetings early in my career was with a family member of a prominent US publishing company. I was shepherding some opposition leaders around from a country under a press blackout. They were sharing their stories in a fairly understated way, including how one had recently survived an attempt to poison him. At some point the family member, who was sporting expensive, extensive gold bangles - maybe Cartier, started waving her arm about how she had not heard of these stories, so they must not be true. A lot of clinging sound with the bangles hitting each other. Another American in the room, formerly high up in diplomatic circles, turned to her and said, "that's because your reporter doesn't want to lose his visa, is also lazy, and reports from the bar."
Anonymous
02/15/2024 14:51
Subject: 2024 Election Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:And if they are using landlines and that is so obviously flawed, why does the media carry on about these clearly inaccurate polls?
It's a cheap story to write or produce.
And a waste of everyone's time.
Anonymous
02/15/2024 14:21
Subject: 2024 Election Thread
.Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I don't know who these polls are polling but it does not seem to be actual voters.
I like the idea of polling; I enjoy seeing when my candidate looks good in the polls, too. But the polls in 2020 were crazy off too. It’s like polling has run its course and they can’t figure out the way forward.
They have a few problems, not the least of which is people generally do not pick up calls from unknown numbers or respond to "opinion" spam texts.
Everyone hated spam calls, and then we did nothing about it, so no one answers the telephone anymore.
The fact is older people are more likely to answer them. It’s one reason they are such targets for scams.
Anonymous
02/15/2024 13:18
Subject: 2024 Election Thread
Anonymous wrote:And if they are using landlines and that is so obviously flawed, why does the media carry on about these clearly inaccurate polls?
It's a cheap story to write or produce.
Anonymous
02/15/2024 12:56
Subject: 2024 Election Thread
And if they are using landlines and that is so obviously flawed, why does the media carry on about these clearly inaccurate polls?
Anonymous
02/15/2024 12:55
Subject: 2024 Election Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:No matter how many votes Trump gets in November, he'll claim he won. And, because of this, some number of Trump supporters will take up arms against the United States again.
He's a threat to democracy, and the number of Republicans who simply don't care about the threat he poses is beyond disturbing.
You seem to be under the impression he’s going to lose… have you looked a national and swing state polls recently?
Or betting odds?
Trump is the favorite to win, currently.
Who needs polls? Look at all the recent special elections for better indications of what really happens on elections day.
Yeah, sure. Don’t be all *surprised pikachu face when November comes around, though.
Today's polling models are horribly inaccurate. The current polling models use landlines to call random numbers. But the owners of landlines are predominantly older voters who typically lean right. Younger voters who typically lean left have cell phones only, or on-line virtual phones which are not in the lists for pollsters to call. So they are leaving out huge swaths of voters, especially ones that lean left. If you look at the 2022 and 2023 off-year elections, in both years, in states where the abortion issue came up, young voters (under 30) came out in record numbers and voted in large majorities for the abortion and democratic candidates. I would guess that less than 10%, likely less than 5% of those voters have land-lines and so they are a completely invisible demographic to the current polling models.
Until the polling models can find a way to adapt to the changing communications demographics, they will continue to be horribly inaccurate and lean far more right than actual voter turnout. Try comparing these polls to exit polls of actual physical voters and you'll see the discrepencies largely reflected.
Are they seriously using landlines for polling? That is ridiculous. So many voters do not have a landline.
Depends on the poll. Most use some cell and online polling (though I don’t know if that’s email or what or how they find people that way either), but they continue to biff the polls in the direction of the GOP.
Anonymous
02/15/2024 12:46
Subject: 2024 Election Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:No matter how many votes Trump gets in November, he'll claim he won. And, because of this, some number of Trump supporters will take up arms against the United States again.
He's a threat to democracy, and the number of Republicans who simply don't care about the threat he poses is beyond disturbing.
You seem to be under the impression he’s going to lose… have you looked a national and swing state polls recently?
Or betting odds?
Trump is the favorite to win, currently.
Who needs polls? Look at all the recent special elections for better indications of what really happens on elections day.
Yeah, sure. Don’t be all *surprised pikachu face when November comes around, though.
Today's polling models are horribly inaccurate. The current polling models use landlines to call random numbers. But the owners of landlines are predominantly older voters who typically lean right. Younger voters who typically lean left have cell phones only, or on-line virtual phones which are not in the lists for pollsters to call. So they are leaving out huge swaths of voters, especially ones that lean left. If you look at the 2022 and 2023 off-year elections, in both years, in states where the abortion issue came up, young voters (under 30) came out in record numbers and voted in large majorities for the abortion and democratic candidates. I would guess that less than 10%, likely less than 5% of those voters have land-lines and so they are a completely invisible demographic to the current polling models.
Until the polling models can find a way to adapt to the changing communications demographics, they will continue to be horribly inaccurate and lean far more right than actual voter turnout. Try comparing these polls to exit polls of actual physical voters and you'll see the discrepencies largely reflected.
Are they seriously using landlines for polling? That is ridiculous. So many voters do not have a landline.
Anonymous
02/15/2024 12:37
Subject: 2024 Election Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:No matter how many votes Trump gets in November, he'll claim he won. And, because of this, some number of Trump supporters will take up arms against the United States again.
He's a threat to democracy, and the number of Republicans who simply don't care about the threat he poses is beyond disturbing.
You seem to be under the impression he’s going to lose… have you looked a national and swing state polls recently?
Or betting odds?
Trump is the favorite to win, currently.
Who needs polls? Look at all the recent special elections for better indications of what really happens on elections day.
Yeah, sure. Don’t be all *surprised pikachu face when November comes around, though.
Today's polling models are horribly inaccurate. The current polling models use landlines to call random numbers. But the owners of landlines are predominantly older voters who typically lean right. Younger voters who typically lean left have cell phones only, or on-line virtual phones which are not in the lists for pollsters to call. So they are leaving out huge swaths of voters, especially ones that lean left. If you look at the 2022 and 2023 off-year elections, in both years, in states where the abortion issue came up, young voters (under 30) came out in record numbers and voted in large majorities for the abortion and democratic candidates. I would guess that less than 10%, likely less than 5% of those voters have land-lines and so they are a completely invisible demographic to the current polling models.
Until the polling models can find a way to adapt to the changing communications demographics, they will continue to be horribly inaccurate and lean far more right than actual voter turnout. Try comparing these polls to exit polls of actual physical voters and you'll see the discrepencies largely reflected.
Anonymous
02/15/2024 09:46
Subject: 2024 Election Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I don't know who these polls are polling but it does not seem to be actual voters.
I like the idea of polling; I enjoy seeing when my candidate looks good in the polls, too. But the polls in 2020 were crazy off too. It’s like polling has run its course and they can’t figure out the way forward.
They have a few problems, not the least of which is people generally do not pick up calls from unknown numbers or respond to "opinion" spam texts.
Everyone hated spam calls, and then we did nothing about it, so no one answers the telephone anymore.
Anonymous
02/15/2024 09:45
Subject: 2024 Election Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I don't know who these polls are polling but it does not seem to be actual voters.
I like the idea of polling; I enjoy seeing when my candidate looks good in the polls, too. But the polls in 2020 were crazy off too. It’s like polling has run its course and they can’t figure out the way forward.
What use is looking good in a poll if it is bull crap on election day. Just a waste of time and money.
Reporting on polls fills "news" space between the advertisements, providing a veneer of objectivity.
Anonymous
02/15/2024 09:44
Subject: Re:2024 Election Thread
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
+1 We already had the 2022 Midterms and usually the party of the president loses big in the federal elections held immediately following the presidential election. That didn’t happen in 2022. Democrats lost control of the House but just barely and R’s underperformed across the board. I would 100% rather be us than them right now! Yes I know things are different when it comes to Trump vs. any other Republican, but he already lost to Biden once.
Democrats will certainly take back the House in 24. But it's a bad map for Democrats in the Senate this election cycle. I don't see how they retain it. It's a really bad map. They'll get it back in 26, but in the meantime....
Polling is not looking good for Biden. He's an elderly geriatric who really shouldn't be in the Oval Office making life and death decisions.
Trump is Trump. Roughly a third of the country subscribes to that insanity. And a third will be enough when Democrats put up a weak candidate and third parties perform strongly.
So, likely result is Trump prez, Republicans take the Senate, and Democrats take back the House.
I don’t think you understand how central the right to bodily autonomy is to people.
+1. The special election yesterday was illustrative. On this issue...the GOP candidate was a mess. She refused to take a clear position.
We can tolerate a candidate that is personally against abortion as long as they will actively support pro choice, roe level protection policies. If the candidate tries to mealy mouth that, they are out. We are interested in getting out rights back and we expect out representatives to fight for that.
And trump will never be credible if he tries to take a pro choice position. That ship sailed with Dobbs.
And also, Trump will never be credible. Full stop. I oppose him. But even someone who is mostly aligned with him has to acknowledge (privately if not publicly) that he lies on a scale the dwarfs any other public figure.