Reply to LCPS return to in-person instruction postponed indefinitely

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Yesterday

16%
608/100,000

Today

15.9%
640/100,000

Not looking good [/quote]

PCR only dropped by .01 since yesterday but more often it’s been closer to .02 (and sometimes none). For the interest of trying to nail down even a ballpark, I did the math on how many days it would take to get below 10% for 5 straight days. If it drops .02% every day, consistently, with no spikes or stagnation, it’s 35 days. That falls on Friday February 2/26. So they earliest I could see is getting in on PCR going below threshold for 5 days is Tuesday 3/2.

Now, some days it might drop .04 then sit, some days it might drop none or it might go up .01 or .02 here and there. So this isn’t foolproof. Bur it’s a “very best case” calculation. Maybe add a week for stagnation or blips that go up, but it realistically at the rate it’s been dropping won’t go much faster than this. So I’m guessing early/mid March best case to return in person. 5-6 more weeks. [/quote]

Mid March is a very good estimate. The rate will probably only drop a small amount per day at first, but then more consistently 0.2 and higher as the weeks go on. It's not a straight line trend.

Additionally, the board members seemed amenable to reopening (hybrid) once teachers have been vaccinated. The vaccine plan for teachers will take about 8 weeks for most teachers to receive both doses. Again, puts us around mid March.

After Spring break, there will be another spike, but by that point hopefully more people will be vaccinated. [/quote]

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