Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yesterday

16%
608/100,000


Today

15.9%
640/100,000

Not looking good

Today 1/24/2021

740/100,000
15.5%


Shit is still fuked up

The thing is if they do away with metrics because they think teachers are now safe, kids still have to go when spread is that high. At least at secondary level they can stay home til it’s safer and still get live instruction by logging on because it’s concurrent. But in elementary it’s a pure split. No online component if you’re hybrid. So parents have to forgo live instruction for completely asynchronous time or switch classes because the BOARD took away the metrics that they’ve had all this time saying it was the minimum of safety

If we don’t need them now why did we ever need them? This is as bad as it’s been yet and they just want to throw a bunch of kids back in when their parents picked hybrid based on them holding to metrics for safety.

Anonymous wrote:Yesterday

16%
608/100,000


Today

15.9%
640/100,000

Not looking good

Today 1/24/2021

740/100,000
15.5%


Shit is still fuked up

Anonymous wrote:I didn’t argue, I said ok. Not sure why the long rebuttal .

LOL, gotcha. An "OK" on dcum forums is often meant as sarcastic. Wasn't so much a rebuttal but a brain dump for anyone interested in the politics of the SB.

I didn’t argue, I said ok. Not sure why the long rebuttal .

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:3/3 for secondary is right in line with when I calculated PCR dropping below 10% for 5 days at a steady rate . However, they’re also going to have to vote to waive metrics for make it happen for k-5 on 2/16. Because we will not be below either threshold for 5 days by then.

My guess is they’ll bring it to motion Tuesday but say they’ll revisit in 2 weeks. I’m guessing 3/3 return for elementary and secondary within 1-2 weeks of that is more likely given metrics and vaccination rates.

Nah, if they already have Beth’s vote it will pass. The motion already says that it supersedes all previous motions on metrics, etc.

I’m pretty sure this is happening.

Ok

Different poster, but I think the previous poster to whom you're responding has a valid point. Beth Barts has been the hard liner throughout all of this.

In the last meeting, a motion was brought to return K-2 hybrid back at the start of third quarter. In the discussion, several board members seemed at least interested in the idea and a few were fully in favor until they realized that the plan would interfere with the vaccination pod, because school nurses would be unavailable to help give shots. Now that vaccines are rolling out, and Barts is supporting the new motion, the politics completely change. Here's how things break down on this issue:

There are 9 board members. It takes a simple majority to pass a motion.

Morse: has always been in favor of reopening
Serotkin: brought a motion to reopen k-2 hybrid two weeks ago
Mahedavi: seemed torn but leaning toward opening k-5 hybrid in the last meeting (expanding motion from K-2 to K-5), until he heard it would interfere with vaccines. Mentioned he has an ES child and wants the kids back in school.
Reaser: seemed interested in the motion to bring back k-2 hybrid two weeks ago, until the vaccine issue came up
Barts: has opposed reopening, but sounds like now she's in favor
Beatty: didn't talk much during the last meeting, but has previously supported motions from Morse and Serotkin to reopen
King: pointed out last week the high community spread numbers; places high value on what the staff recommends and needs
Corbo: never seems to have enough information to vote. Will likely either abstain from voting or vote no; very focused on teachers' needs, as a former teachrr
Sheridan: very practical, pushes administration for answers/facts. If school administrators are comfortable with reopening, that could sway her

Seems like they have a solid three "yes" votes (Morse, Serotkin, Barts) and another three possible yes votes (Mahedavi, Reaser, Beatty), two unknown (King, Sheridan) and one you can assume will abstain or vote no (Corbo).

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:3/3 for secondary is right in line with when I calculated PCR dropping below 10% for 5 days at a steady rate . However, they’re also going to have to vote to waive metrics for make it happen for k-5 on 2/16. Because we will not be below either threshold for 5 days by then.

My guess is they’ll bring it to motion Tuesday but say they’ll revisit in 2 weeks. I’m guessing 3/3 return for elementary and secondary within 1-2 weeks of that is more likely given metrics and vaccination rates.

Nah, if they already have Beth’s vote it will pass. The motion already says that it supersedes all previous motions on metrics, etc.

I’m pretty sure this is happening.

Ok

Anonymous wrote:3/3 for secondary is right in line with when I calculated PCR dropping below 10% for 5 days at a steady rate . However, they’re also going to have to vote to waive metrics for make it happen for k-5 on 2/16. Because we will not be below either threshold for 5 days by then.

My guess is they’ll bring it to motion Tuesday but say they’ll revisit in 2 weeks. I’m guessing 3/3 return for elementary and secondary within 1-2 weeks of that is more likely given metrics and vaccination rates.

Nah, if they already have Beth’s vote it will pass. The motion already says that it supersedes all previous motions on metrics, etc.

I’m pretty sure this is happening.

3/3 for secondary is right in line with when I calculated PCR dropping below 10% for 5 days at a steady rate . However, they’re also going to have to vote to waive metrics for make it happen for k-5 on 2/16. Because we will not be below either threshold for 5 days by then.

My guess is they’ll bring it to motion Tuesday but say they’ll revisit in 2 weeks. I’m guessing 3/3 return for elementary and secondary within 1-2 weeks of that is more likely given metrics and vaccination rates.

Beth Barts just posted she will vote in favor of the motion to return to hybrid 2/16 for k-5, and 3/3 for secondary. Sounds like there is a good chance of the this passing. This is also good news for vaccinations as it sounds like they expect to be done needing Brambleton Middle School and secondary school nurses by 3/3.

The school board has already voted on the metrics. School will be back when PPR goes below 10% for 5 days. The status of vaccine administration is not a part of the decision, and the make it one the board would have to vote on it, and I don’t see 5 school board members (majority) voting to delay school any further.

The 3700 was given this week. The only dates so far were last Friday and this week Tue-Friday. That’s the 3700. No more have been given or scheduled.

That said we supposedly get a weekly allotment and I expect appointments for next week will be loaded over the weekend.

I got my shot and was told I will have access to the second dose without needing to vie for an apt slot.

Anonymous wrote:I want to believe we can all have vaccines by mid March but I’m not optimistic. They haven’t opened any new days since last week and I believe only 4 dates total have been released. They immediately filled and the irnerim superintendent send an email to be patient because they don’t know when they’ll get more or how many and this is not in the scope of a school system. People who hot first shots this week can now not set up their appointment for the second because it’s unclear if or when we will have them.

This presents the issue then of so they send us all back when metrics drop even if many might not have their vaccine yet? Or do they hold off til we have? I don’t blame them for the vaccine rollout , it’s not their fault, but it presents an issue when some but not all teachers may have gotten theirs by the time they want to send us back. Mid March is hopeful for both. But we’ll see.

According to LCPS School Board documents, 3,700 staff members (incl. teachers) were given their first doses in the first week the vaccines were available. LCPS has just shy of 12,000 staff/teachers. The slides don't say how many vaccines were given this week, but there were appointments available. I'm sure the number is well north of 4,000 by the end of this second week. We'll hear updated numbers at Tuesday's Board meeting.

At this rate, all staff will have their first dose within a few weeks, and all staff will be vaccinated by mid-March.

Anonymous wrote:I want to believe we can all have vaccines by mid March but I’m not optimistic. They haven’t opened any new days since last week and I believe only 4 dates total have been released. They immediately filled and the irnerim superintendent send an email to be patient because they don’t know when they’ll get more or how many and this is not in the scope of a school system. People who hot first shots this week can now not set up their appointment for the second because it’s unclear if or when we will have them.

This presents the issue then of so they send us all back when metrics drop even if many might not have their vaccine yet? Or do they hold off til we have? I don’t blame them for the vaccine rollout , it’s not their fault, but it presents an issue when some but not all teachers may have gotten theirs by the time they want to send us back. Mid March is hopeful for both. But we’ll see.

Although we're all just guessing, I do think the vaccines will pick up again soon and the pace will keep increasing.

Yes, the county will begin phasing hybrid in again as soon as the metrics drop below the threshold. Having some teachers with and some without the vaccine does NOT present an issue or hurdle for returning to hybrid learning. Vaccines were not factored in to those decisions, and the fact that some teachers will have been vaccinated is a bonus on top of all of the safety and health measures already in place. Let's not forget that and suddenly move the line based on vaccinating every teacher.

I want to believe we can all have vaccines by mid March but I’m not optimistic. They haven’t opened any new days since last week and I believe only 4 dates total have been released. They immediately filled and the irnerim superintendent send an email to be patient because they don’t know when they’ll get more or how many and this is not in the scope of a school system. People who hot first shots this week can now not set up their appointment for the second because it’s unclear if or when we will have them.

This presents the issue then of so they send us all back when metrics drop even if many might not have their vaccine yet? Or do they hold off til we have? I don’t blame them for the vaccine rollout , it’s not their fault, but it presents an issue when some but not all teachers may have gotten theirs by the time they want to send us back. Mid March is hopeful for both. But we’ll see.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yesterday

16%
608/100,000


Today

15.9%
640/100,000

Not looking good

PCR only dropped by .01 since yesterday but more often it’s been closer to .02 (and sometimes none). For the interest of trying to nail down even a ballpark, I did the math on how many days it would take to get below 10% for 5 straight days. If it drops .02% every day, consistently, with no spikes or stagnation, it’s 35 days. That falls on Friday February 2/26. So they earliest I could see is getting in on PCR going below threshold for 5 days is Tuesday 3/2.

Now, some days it might drop .04 then sit, some days it might drop none or it might go up .01 or .02 here and there. So this isn’t foolproof. Bur it’s a “very best case” calculation. Maybe add a week for stagnation or blips that go up, but it realistically at the rate it’s been dropping won’t go much faster than this. So I’m guessing early/mid March best case to return in person. 5-6 more weeks.

Mid March is a very good estimate. The rate will probably only drop a small amount per day at first, but then more consistently 0.2 and higher as the weeks go on. It's not a straight line trend.

Additionally, the board members seemed amenable to reopening (hybrid) once teachers have been vaccinated. The vaccine plan for teachers will take about 8 weeks for most teachers to receive both doses. Again, puts us around mid March.

After Spring break, there will be another spike, but by that point hopefully more people will be vaccinated.