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Reply to "Harris beating Trump in Iowa"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous] She oversampled Democrats in her poll. She admitted she doesn’t even weight for partisanship in her poll. What kind of reputable pollster creates a Democrat electorate in a state that has been leaning more and more Republican? Republicans gained in voter registration since 2020.[/quote] It isn't that she is oversampling democrats, it is that all of the other polls are oversampling Trump voters to compensate for the "hidden Trump voter" but that neglects the impact of Dobbs on the electorate.[/quote] So you believe everyone else is oversampling Trump voters, based on what? There is absolutely no chance there was a 20 point swing in Iowa between June and today. That is not possible. She has an approach, which is going to create some serious outlier results from time to time. This is one of them.[/quote] DP - it’s not oversampling so much as it is weighting the groups differently. There have been multiple articles about this recently, given how bizarrely close almost all of the polls are. [/quote]
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