Anonymous
11/04/2024 16:52
Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Dobbs was overturned in June 2022. In November 2022, Iowa voted even more to the right than 2020. The R governor won by almost 20 points after winning by less than 3 in 2018, and the state house flipped several seats from D to R! There's no other evidence Dobbs is a driving force there. The more simple explanation is the poll is an outlier.
If you think it’s such an outlier, why are you expending so much energy trying to convince others it’s not valid? Seems like you’re worried that it’s accurate.
I'm not worried at all! The poll was laughable. It's just there's so many people here delusional she is going to win the whole thing based on this one poll... Maybe you're right; I should let you all figure it out tomorrow night that you were duped.
You are delusional. This isn’t 2016 or 2020 or 2022. The non-MAGA Republicans are leaving the circus. It isn’t just Trump. The Republican House has been a dysfunctional joke. It isn’t just Iowa. Look at the recent polls in Kansas and Nebraska. Trump has lost ground in red states that are not full of racists and fascists.
Anonymous
11/04/2024 16:52
Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:SoCal Strategies poll (non partisan), just published, has Trump up in Iowa 52-44.
I jjust hope everyone had a good time dreaming about Kamala winning Iowa. I mean, what’s the point of following politics if you never can enjoy a glimmer of hope?
Conducted over one day
Used “random digit engagement”
Used more registered voters than likely voters.
Yeah— super legit.
Anonymous
11/04/2024 16:42
Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Dobbs was overturned in June 2022. In November 2022, Iowa voted even more to the right than 2020. The R governor won by almost 20 points after winning by less than 3 in 2018, and the state house flipped several seats from D to R! There's no other evidence Dobbs is a driving force there. The more simple explanation is the poll is an outlier.
If you think it’s such an outlier, why are you expending so much energy trying to convince others it’s not valid? Seems like you’re worried that it’s accurate.
I'm not worried at all! The poll was laughable. It's just there's so many people here delusional she is going to win the whole thing based on this one poll... Maybe you're right; I should let you all figure it out tomorrow night that you were duped.
Confirmation bias is more palatable for most.
Anonymous
11/04/2024 16:38
Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Dobbs was overturned in June 2022. In November 2022, Iowa voted even more to the right than 2020. The R governor won by almost 20 points after winning by less than 3 in 2018, and the state house flipped several seats from D to R! There's no other evidence Dobbs is a driving force there. The more simple explanation is the poll is an outlier.
If you think it’s such an outlier, why are you expending so much energy trying to convince others it’s not valid? Seems like you’re worried that it’s accurate.
I'm not worried at all! The poll was laughable. It's just there's so many people here delusional she is going to win the whole thing based on this one poll... Maybe you're right; I should let you all figure it out tomorrow night that you were duped.
Anonymous
11/04/2024 16:32
Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:
This made me laugh!
Bahahahahaha. Wow.
Anonymous
11/04/2024 16:30
Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Dobbs was overturned in June 2022. In November 2022, Iowa voted even more to the right than 2020. The R governor won by almost 20 points after winning by less than 3 in 2018, and the state house flipped several seats from D to R! There's no other evidence Dobbs is a driving force there. The more simple explanation is the poll is an outlier.
If you think it’s such an outlier, why are you expending so much energy trying to convince others it’s not valid? Seems like you’re worried that it’s accurate.
They’re expending energy because if Harris wins, this poll is extremely inconvenient to the narrative that the polls are proof of cheating.
I don’t know what will happen in Iowa tomorrow, but people are being obtuse not to recognize that a six-week abortion ban, enacted just months ago, would be extremely galvanizing to women voters.
Anonymous
11/04/2024 16:21
Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:Dobbs was overturned in June 2022. In November 2022, Iowa voted even more to the right than 2020. The R governor won by almost 20 points after winning by less than 3 in 2018, and the state house flipped several seats from D to R! There's no other evidence Dobbs is a driving force there. The more simple explanation is the poll is an outlier.
If you think it’s such an outlier, why are you expending so much energy trying to convince others it’s not valid? Seems like you’re worried that it’s accurate.
Anonymous
11/04/2024 16:12
Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:Dobbs was overturned in June 2022. In November 2022, Iowa voted even more to the right than 2020. The R governor won by almost 20 points after winning by less than 3 in 2018, and the state house flipped several seats from D to R! There's no other evidence Dobbs is a driving force there. The more simple explanation is the poll is an outlier.
LOL. Republicans have done a thousand stupid things since 2022. Iowa women voters are not insane. The Iowa Presidential vote will be close. Democrats will take at least one Iowa House seat and maybe two.
Anonymous
11/04/2024 16:04
Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Dobbs was overturned in June 2022. In November 2022, Iowa voted even more to the right than 2020. The R governor won by almost 20 points after winning by less than 3 in 2018, and the state house flipped several seats from D to R! There's no other evidence Dobbs is a driving force there. The more simple explanation is the poll is an outlier.
Anonymous
11/04/2024 15:48
Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
She oversampled Democrats in her poll. She admitted she doesn’t even weight for partisanship in her poll. What kind of reputable pollster creates a Democrat electorate in a state that has been leaning more and more Republican? Republicans gained in voter registration since 2020.
It isn't that she is oversampling democrats, it is that all of the other polls are oversampling Trump voters to compensate for the "hidden Trump voter" but that neglects the impact of Dobbs on the electorate.
So you believe everyone else is oversampling Trump voters, based on what?
There is absolutely no chance there was a 20 point swing in Iowa between June and today. That is not possible. She has an approach, which is going to create some serious outlier results from time to time. This is one of them.
A catastrophic new landscape for the women of Iowa could absolutely produce a significant swing. Rolling back a fundamental right for all women after they have held it for 50 years has never happened, Ever.
IF Iowa decided that every man was going to donate a kidney on their 21st birthday if the state needed it, you would see a similar swing. Iowa needs to mind their own damn business when it comes to folks decisions about their own bodies,
That law was passed in 2023.
Final Iowa supreme court ruling was a few months ago
And — again — the tie-breaking justice is on the ballot
Anonymous
11/04/2024 15:44
Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
She oversampled Democrats in her poll. She admitted she doesn’t even weight for partisanship in her poll. What kind of reputable pollster creates a Democrat electorate in a state that has been leaning more and more Republican? Republicans gained in voter registration since 2020.
It isn't that she is oversampling democrats, it is that all of the other polls are oversampling Trump voters to compensate for the "hidden Trump voter" but that neglects the impact of Dobbs on the electorate.
So you believe everyone else is oversampling Trump voters, based on what?
There is absolutely no chance there was a 20 point swing in Iowa between June and today. That is not possible. She has an approach, which is going to create some serious outlier results from time to time. This is one of them.
A catastrophic new landscape for the women of Iowa could absolutely produce a significant swing. Rolling back a fundamental right for all women after they have held it for 50 years has never happened, Ever.
IF Iowa decided that every man was going to donate a kidney on their 21st birthday if the state needed it, you would see a similar swing. Iowa needs to mind their own damn business when it comes to folks decisions about their own bodies,
That law was passed in 2023.
Final Iowa supreme court ruling was a few months ago
Anonymous
11/04/2024 15:43
Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
She oversampled Democrats in her poll. She admitted she doesn’t even weight for partisanship in her poll. What kind of reputable pollster creates a Democrat electorate in a state that has been leaning more and more Republican? Republicans gained in voter registration since 2020.
It isn't that she is oversampling democrats, it is that all of the other polls are oversampling Trump voters to compensate for the "hidden Trump voter" but that neglects the impact of Dobbs on the electorate.
So you believe everyone else is oversampling Trump voters, based on what?
There is absolutely no chance there was a 20 point swing in Iowa between June and today. That is not possible. She has an approach, which is going to create some serious outlier results from time to time. This is one of them.
A catastrophic new landscape for the women of Iowa could absolutely produce a significant swing. Rolling back a fundamental right for all women after they have held it for 50 years has never happened, Ever.
IF Iowa decided that every man was going to donate a kidney on their 21st birthday if the state needed it, you would see a similar swing. Iowa needs to mind their own damn business when it comes to folks decisions about their own bodies,
That law was passed in 2023.
https://apnews.com/article/iowa-abortion-ban-bd8a959fd64fef5914459e9ea4a64294
This report says it went into effect late July of 2024.
Anonymous
11/04/2024 15:41
Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
She oversampled Democrats in her poll. She admitted she doesn’t even weight for partisanship in her poll. What kind of reputable pollster creates a Democrat electorate in a state that has been leaning more and more Republican? Republicans gained in voter registration since 2020.
It isn't that she is oversampling democrats, it is that all of the other polls are oversampling Trump voters to compensate for the "hidden Trump voter" but that neglects the impact of Dobbs on the electorate.
So you believe everyone else is oversampling Trump voters, based on what?
There is absolutely no chance there was a 20 point swing in Iowa between June and today. That is not possible. She has an approach, which is going to create some serious outlier results from time to time. This is one of them.
DP - it’s not oversampling so much as it is weighting the groups differently. There have been multiple articles about this recently, given how bizarrely close almost all of the polls are.
Anonymous
11/04/2024 15:40
Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
She oversampled Democrats in her poll. She admitted she doesn’t even weight for partisanship in her poll. What kind of reputable pollster creates a Democrat electorate in a state that has been leaning more and more Republican? Republicans gained in voter registration since 2020.
It isn't that she is oversampling democrats, it is that all of the other polls are oversampling Trump voters to compensate for the "hidden Trump voter" but that neglects the impact of Dobbs on the electorate.
So you believe everyone else is oversampling Trump voters, based on what?
There is absolutely no chance there was a 20 point swing in Iowa between June and today. That is not possible. She has an approach, which is going to create some serious outlier results from time to time. This is one of them.
A catastrophic new landscape for the women of Iowa could absolutely produce a significant swing. Rolling back a fundamental right for all women after they have held it for 50 years has never happened, Ever.
IF Iowa decided that every man was going to donate a kidney on their 21st birthday if the state needed it, you would see a similar swing. Iowa needs to mind their own damn business when it comes to folks decisions about their own bodies,
That law was passed in 2023.
Anonymous
11/04/2024 15:38
Subject: Harris beating Trump in Iowa
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
She oversampled Democrats in her poll. She admitted she doesn’t even weight for partisanship in her poll. What kind of reputable pollster creates a Democrat electorate in a state that has been leaning more and more Republican? Republicans gained in voter registration since 2020.
It isn't that she is oversampling democrats, it is that all of the other polls are oversampling Trump voters to compensate for the "hidden Trump voter" but that neglects the impact of Dobbs on the electorate.
So you believe everyone else is oversampling Trump voters, based on what?
There is absolutely no chance there was a 20 point swing in Iowa between June and today. That is not possible. She has an approach, which is going to create some serious outlier results from time to time. This is one of them.
A catastrophic new landscape for the women of Iowa could absolutely produce a significant swing. Rolling back a fundamental right for all women after they have held it for 50 years has never happened, Ever.
IF Iowa decided that every man was going to donate a kidney on their 21st birthday if the state needed it you would see a similar swing. Iowa needs to mind their own damn business when it comes to folks decisions about their own bodies,
A very good analogy