Anonymous wrote:I’m fine with Russia taking all of Ukraine if it gives us license to conquer and remake Mexico

Mexico is a failed state and cannot be trusted any longer

Polk messed up by not conquering it

We can't fix Mexico, just like we can't fix all the countries in Central and South America. They're children of a very different culture. They need to do what they do and we need to not import it here.

I’m fine with Russia taking all of Ukraine if it gives us license to conquer and remake Mexico

Mexico is a failed state and cannot be trusted any longer

Polk messed up by not conquering it

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is another indication that Russia has lost.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/st-petersburg-bomb-cafe-military-blogger-vladlen-tatarsky/

An explosion tore through a cafe in Russia's second-largest city Sunday, killing a well-known military blogger and strident supporter of President Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine. Officials announced the arrest of a Russian woman Monday in connection with the blast, claiming she carried a bust of the blogger into the cafe that was rigged as a bomb.

Russian officials said Vladlen Tatarsky was killed as he led a discussion at the cafe on the bank of the Neva River in the historic heart of St. Petersburg. Some 30 people were wounded in the blast, Russia's Health Ministry reported.

Ukraine can go asymmetric. It will be terrorism back by the resources of a state. Bet they all ready have an operations planned.

I guess we're ok with state sponsored terrorism as long as its our state sponsored terrorism?

DP. Hmm. Given that Russia has devolved into a terrorist state itself (ex. soldiers encouraged to rape, pillage, murder, kidnap children, etc.) I'm not sure the morally relativistic argument you're making holds water? Would you be angry at a country that raped, pillaged, murdered, kidnapped your own relatives? If you wouldn't be, you're one cold-blooded killer yourself.

Anonymous wrote:Why do people forget that Russia and Ukraine were in an effective stalemate for eight years prior to this escalation? I see no reason why this can't last the next decade or two.

Because Russia changed that eight-year status quo with its invasion of the rest of Ukraine. Russia had most of Donbas and Crimea. And the West had let it slide without significant consequences - all of them; Obama, Trump, Merkel, Macron, Boris Johnson, Trudeau. If Russia hadn't invaded and sought to take Kyiv, the capital, they'd be doing just fine. Some skirmishing in Donbas. Some minor sanctions. But otherwise Russia would still get its oil revenue, most of Donbas would more or less be incorporated into Russia, and they'd hold on to a nice warm weather port on the Black Sea for its navy and Russian vacationers. 2014 was a total win for Russia. If Russians were smart, they would have enjoyed their victory and that would be that.

Instead, Russians made a colossal mistake by invading the rest of Ukraine. And Ukrainians fought back, destroying its Spetsnaz, paratroopers, and much of the initial armor in the first weeks. Absolutely legendary. But one year later the war has settled into a kind of stalemate. And it's not remotely sustainable. So far, in one year, somewhere between 250,000 and 400,000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have died. The civilian casualties are unknowable until there's an accounting of what happened in Mariupol, but it's well into the thousands. For comparison, the US lost 58,000 soldiers in Vietnam over twenty years. The war Russia launched against Ukraine cannot settle into a stalemate. The costs in human lives have been too large. There will be a winner and a loser. Because there is no alternative.

So far, the Biden administration and its NATO allies have navigated this pretty well. Freedom and self-determination on one side. Imperialism and genocide on the other. But no one wanst American or NATO soldiers fighting in Ukraine. So it's a thread the needle situation. This is a problem without an easy solution.

Think the real fear is that the Russian invasion of Ukraine becomes an assassination of Archduke Ferdinand situation. The Law of Unintended Consequences looms large here..

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why do people forget that Russia and Ukraine were in an effective stalemate for eight years prior to this escalation? I see no reason why this can't last the next decade or two.

Because the West and other sympathetic powers (Japan, S. Korea, etc.) hadn't really engaged on behalf of Ukraine. You can't compare pre-invasion to post-invasion balance of power.

Oh, plus sanctions/loss of fossil fuel market for Russia post-invasion.

Anonymous wrote:Why do people forget that Russia and Ukraine were in an effective stalemate for eight years prior to this escalation? I see no reason why this can't last the next decade or two.

Because the West and other sympathetic powers (Japan, S. Korea, etc.) hadn't really engaged on behalf of Ukraine. You can't compare pre-invasion to post-invasion balance of power.

Anonymous wrote:This is another indication that Russia has lost.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/st-petersburg-bomb-cafe-military-blogger-vladlen-tatarsky/

An explosion tore through a cafe in Russia's second-largest city Sunday, killing a well-known military blogger and strident supporter of President Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine. Officials announced the arrest of a Russian woman Monday in connection with the blast, claiming she carried a bust of the blogger into the cafe that was rigged as a bomb.

Russian officials said Vladlen Tatarsky was killed as he led a discussion at the cafe on the bank of the Neva River in the historic heart of St. Petersburg. Some 30 people were wounded in the blast, Russia's Health Ministry reported.

Ukraine can go asymmetric. It will be terrorism back by the resources of a state. Bet they all ready have an operations planned.

From what I can tell, Tatarsky was hyping Wagner while trashing the Russian military. It could have been an escalation between Putin loyalists and Prigozhin loyalists.

Anonymous wrote:This is another indication that Russia has lost.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/st-petersburg-bomb-cafe-military-blogger-vladlen-tatarsky/

An explosion tore through a cafe in Russia's second-largest city Sunday, killing a well-known military blogger and strident supporter of President Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine. Officials announced the arrest of a Russian woman Monday in connection with the blast, claiming she carried a bust of the blogger into the cafe that was rigged as a bomb.

Russian officials said Vladlen Tatarsky was killed as he led a discussion at the cafe on the bank of the Neva River in the historic heart of St. Petersburg. Some 30 people were wounded in the blast, Russia's Health Ministry reported.

Ukraine can go asymmetric. It will be terrorism back by the resources of a state. Bet they all ready have an operations planned.

I guess we're ok with state sponsored terrorism as long as its our state sponsored terrorism?

This is another indication that Russia has lost.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/st-petersburg-bomb-cafe-military-blogger-vladlen-tatarsky/

An explosion tore through a cafe in Russia's second-largest city Sunday, killing a well-known military blogger and strident supporter of President Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine. Officials announced the arrest of a Russian woman Monday in connection with the blast, claiming she carried a bust of the blogger into the cafe that was rigged as a bomb.

Russian officials said Vladlen Tatarsky was killed as he led a discussion at the cafe on the bank of the Neva River in the historic heart of St. Petersburg. Some 30 people were wounded in the blast, Russia's Health Ministry reported.

Ukraine can go asymmetric. It will be terrorism back by the resources of a state. Bet they all ready have an operations planned.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:History is long, cities are captured and change hands. Civilizations rise and fall.

And we risk nuclear war that could end humanity.

If the Russian Government does this, one thing will be absolutely certain.

I have a very different take on this point.

Let's suppose that Russians first-strike and nuke the US, and they're so successful that the US is wiped off the face of the planet with nuclear weapons, and there is zero damage to Russia. Far-fetched, I know, but this is just a make-believe hypothetical to prove a point.

The net result? I believe there will not be a place on Earth that Russians can vacation or travel to and not be scorned or hated (except maybe North Korea? but certainly no where with a beach..). I believe that Russians, as an ethnicity, will end. No one will want to be associated with Russia or being called a Russian and no amount of Russian propaganda will be able to change that.

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3181617/backlash-against-russians-living-abroad-all-too-familiar-anxious

The US is not an ethnicity - it is fundamentally a collection of people from around the globe who immigrated. The US is so interconnected to the world's financial systems, shipping of goods and services, relatives living abroad, etc. that there is no country on the planet that is not interconnected (except North Korea.. but our ally South Korea covers that part and the US has A LOT of ties to South Korea). Whether you love the US or hate it, the point is that it is what it is and no way to avoid it.

Plus, once the world sees the US, as a powerful country, wiped off the face of the Earth; they will probably turn to China for protection. And what will China do?

Russia will be the only impediment to China's rule of the planet. Xi may not want that. Other chinese officials may not want that. Now. But later? Who knows.

There is only one outcome for Russia and all Russians if they pull the nuclear trigger.

Feel better now?

No

I think the environmental impact from that kind of strike ends it for everyone.

Russia going nuclear is suicide for Russia. It would be pure idiocy.

No it’s not. Russia can still play this card and call our bluff. If Russia launches a strike against Ukraine, are we really going to respond? Are we willing to sacrifice Chicago for Kiev? Los Angeles for Odesa? No. We can certainly put a tighter economic squeeze on Russia but Putin has enough friends to avert an economic collapse.

Comrade Trollski:

We have a new saying in America:

“Fu** around and find out.”

If a nuclear weapon is detonated in Ukraine, I can absolutely promise you this:

NATO will very quickly use the massive military means at its disposal to obliterate what little remains of the Russian military.

Empty bravado.

NP

Go join your countrymen at the front... they need your help.

NP: yes, comrade. Please go directly to Bakhmut.


- it’s only one tiny town, right?

- Russia’s army is the strongest by far, right?

- Russians obviously possess superior intelligence compared to all other races, right? - so their military tactics must also be superior, right?

- Russians have nukes, so obviously they are strongest, right?

- Russians say their soldiers can rip apart decadent NATO tanks with their bare hands, right?

So Comrade Trollski: I must ask you an extremely serious and direct question:

- why are you not going to Bahkmut to solve that little problem??

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:History is long, cities are captured and change hands. Civilizations rise and fall.

And we risk nuclear war that could end humanity.

If the Russian Government does this, one thing will be absolutely certain.

I have a very different take on this point.

Let's suppose that Russians first-strike and nuke the US, and they're so successful that the US is wiped off the face of the planet with nuclear weapons, and there is zero damage to Russia. Far-fetched, I know, but this is just a make-believe hypothetical to prove a point.

The net result? I believe there will not be a place on Earth that Russians can vacation or travel to and not be scorned or hated (except maybe North Korea? but certainly no where with a beach..). I believe that Russians, as an ethnicity, will end. No one will want to be associated with Russia or being called a Russian and no amount of Russian propaganda will be able to change that.

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3181617/backlash-against-russians-living-abroad-all-too-familiar-anxious

The US is not an ethnicity - it is fundamentally a collection of people from around the globe who immigrated. The US is so interconnected to the world's financial systems, shipping of goods and services, relatives living abroad, etc. that there is no country on the planet that is not interconnected (except North Korea.. but our ally South Korea covers that part and the US has A LOT of ties to South Korea). Whether you love the US or hate it, the point is that it is what it is and no way to avoid it.

Plus, once the world sees the US, as a powerful country, wiped off the face of the Earth; they will probably turn to China for protection. And what will China do?

Russia will be the only impediment to China's rule of the planet. Xi may not want that. Other chinese officials may not want that. Now. But later? Who knows.

There is only one outcome for Russia and all Russians if they pull the nuclear trigger.

Feel better now?

No

I think the environmental impact from that kind of strike ends it for everyone.

Russia going nuclear is suicide for Russia. It would be pure idiocy.

No it’s not. Russia can still play this card and call our bluff. If Russia launches a strike against Ukraine, are we really going to respond? Are we willing to sacrifice Chicago for Kiev? Los Angeles for Odesa? No. We can certainly put a tighter economic squeeze on Russia but Putin has enough friends to avert an economic collapse.

Bluff? Interesting choice of word, but let me clarify something that I think you misunderstand. What good is having a nuclear deterrent if you let the other guy have the first hit. Do you seriously think it's a good idea to absorb nuclear strikes and sit around debating about it in Congress for weeks while cities and nukes are wiped out? Nah. That's silly.

Another point. If you follow what Putin says versus what he does closely, you'll note that he doesn't make idle threats. If he says he's going to invade XYZ, he may wait a while, but he'll invade XYZ. He said as much prior to both invasions of Ukraine (remember the "lie down" comment?), invasion of Georgia, etc. So far Putin has danced dangerously close to the nuclear war topic, but has not come out with a clear and direct threat - but is getting closer to the line. Medvedev and others, a different story, but thankfully they still answer to Putin.

If I were Tom Clancy, my guess is that the Russian military won't use chemical or biological weapons since it creates headaches for their own Army's ability to launch offensives. Besides, it's not a Soviet Union Military doctrinal 'escalation rule' that you must proceed from conventional to chemical to biological to nuclear weaponry. Soviet Military doctrine is more along the lines of first-strike / expediency, which presumably would include nuclear. Soviet doctrine regarding a conflict involving the US would typically be to (a) destroy, disable or distract as much of the US intel, strategic nuclear, submarine, early warning, and upper leadership preemptively as possible, then (b) launch an all out knock-out blow to ensure that no nuclear counterstrike would be possible. Again, it wouldn't be an escalation thing, it would be more of a repetitive series of fake-out / false starts to measure reaction times, determine the number of forces, where they are located etc. In theory, Russian sleeper cells would activate and begin operations prior to any attack. Once the Russian military is confident they understand the US playbook, then my guess is it would be an all-out jack-in-the-box thing; starting with sub nukes to knock out US missile early warning, missile defenses, nukes and C&C, followed by land rockets (to wipe out population and industry) and planes (to mop up). And yes, I believe the Russians would attack the US first, since we're a bigger threat than Europe.

If you don't believe that Russian spies are active in the US, remember Putin was a 'real' KGB agent from 1975 to 1990.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_espionage_in_the_United_States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegals_Program

If you believe China would stop anyone, I think it's a little far-fetched. China stands to be the clear winner in any Russian-Western conflict. As long as China can feed it's own population, I don't think the CCP will care if the stock market crashes since it would teach the bourgeoisie capitalists a lesson in communist economics.

There was an earlier thread where someone said the nuclear fallout would affect the entire planet, etc. Yup. I believe that's true. But you have to remember that the Communist Party didn't bat an eye when they held the May Day parade and marched the kids through the swirling radioactive fallout from Chernobyl. To this day the Russian Government is still trying to hide the birth defects in Belarus, so I don't think the Russian Government would really care about that.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:History is long, cities are captured and change hands. Civilizations rise and fall.

And we risk nuclear war that could end humanity.

If the Russian Government does this, one thing will be absolutely certain.

I have a very different take on this point.

Let's suppose that Russians first-strike and nuke the US, and they're so successful that the US is wiped off the face of the planet with nuclear weapons, and there is zero damage to Russia. Far-fetched, I know, but this is just a make-believe hypothetical to prove a point.

The net result? I believe there will not be a place on Earth that Russians can vacation or travel to and not be scorned or hated (except maybe North Korea? but certainly no where with a beach..). I believe that Russians, as an ethnicity, will end. No one will want to be associated with Russia or being called a Russian and no amount of Russian propaganda will be able to change that.

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3181617/backlash-against-russians-living-abroad-all-too-familiar-anxious

The US is not an ethnicity - it is fundamentally a collection of people from around the globe who immigrated. The US is so interconnected to the world's financial systems, shipping of goods and services, relatives living abroad, etc. that there is no country on the planet that is not interconnected (except North Korea.. but our ally South Korea covers that part and the US has A LOT of ties to South Korea). Whether you love the US or hate it, the point is that it is what it is and no way to avoid it.

Plus, once the world sees the US, as a powerful country, wiped off the face of the Earth; they will probably turn to China for protection. And what will China do?

Russia will be the only impediment to China's rule of the planet. Xi may not want that. Other chinese officials may not want that. Now. But later? Who knows.

There is only one outcome for Russia and all Russians if they pull the nuclear trigger.

Feel better now?

No

I think the environmental impact from that kind of strike ends it for everyone.

Russia going nuclear is suicide for Russia. It would be pure idiocy.

No it’s not. Russia can still play this card and call our bluff. If Russia launches a strike against Ukraine, are we really going to respond? Are we willing to sacrifice Chicago for Kiev? Los Angeles for Odesa? No. We can certainly put a tighter economic squeeze on Russia but Putin has enough friends to avert an economic collapse.

Comrade Trollski:

We have a new saying in America:

“Fu** around and find out.”

If a nuclear weapon is detonated in Ukraine, I can absolutely promise you this:

NATO will very quickly use the massive military means at its disposal to obliterate what little remains of the Russian military.

Empty bravado.

NP

Go join your countrymen at the front... they need your help.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Other than a few hockey players and lots of attractive women who seem to enjoy doing porn there is not much Russia offers the rest of the world for culture or any real value.

After Russia loses in Ukraine I hope the country spends a few decades evolving into something tolerable.

Most of "Russia's" culture and history actually came from Ukraine. They even stole the name Russia from the Kievan Rus.

Oh god what a hoax lol
I mean I wish Ukraine to win and all the best but let’s be real here and not entertain crazy theories

Not so "crazy" - do some reading on the Kievan Rus and Vladimir-Suzdal Rus. The founding families of Ukraine are who elevated Moscow from an obscure nothing place in a swamp into a place if meaning.

I am sorry but no one is interested except Ukrainians
Probably not even Russians
I mean this kindly as an outsider: people who talk about this get eye rolls behind their backs. I don’t recommend mentioning it to anyone except fellowUkrainians or maybe if you want to antagonize a Russian. It’s just irrelevant

I mean this kindly as a bystander: I give people who don't get this eye rolls to your face. I think you don't know what your talking about and you're an incompetent fool. Revisionist history is a the bread-and-butter of Russian Propaganda used to indoctrinate the population to support Russian Government military action. Russian propagandists talk about this stuff just about every other week. If you ever travelled to any part of the former Soviet Union or one of its satellites, history a very big deal. In fact, if you even say the wrong word, it's a big deal. Say "brot" versus "hlep" or "molim" versus "pashalasta" will pretty much set the tone of your conversation with that person.

Putin’s Inaccurate Historical Propaganda : The History of the Russian and Ukrainian Relations
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzxBKcTpRe4

"Falsification of history of Poland by the Kremlin"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sk09zyW5j2w

"Kadyrov, however, went further. Not content to be a mere Kremlin mouthpiece, his essay spins out a specious history of Chechnya that blames the West and not Russia for two brutal wars that subjugated his republic."
https://www.polygraph.info/a/6743317.html

"How Putin's propaganda is weaponising the Russian Orthodox Church"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1H7lGVGNVME

And under the watchful gaze of Roskomnadzor, the revisionism and propaganda flourishes, and any truth to counter it gets squashed.

Nobody cares.

Nobody cares? Russian media outlets care, they get arrested or get their licenses pulled if they dare tell the truth about the war. Even calling it a war would have gotten you jailed a year ago.

Nobody cares? We here in the west know that the only words to come out of Russia have already been heavily laundered in accordance with the latest propaganda.

The only people who don't care are either fools, morons, or people in denial.

Nobody cares about the historical minutia of who was where first. That stuff never does.

Why do people forget that Russia and Ukraine were in an effective stalemate for eight years prior to this escalation? I see no reason why this can't last the next decade or two.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:History is long, cities are captured and change hands. Civilizations rise and fall.

And we risk nuclear war that could end humanity.

If the Russian Government does this, one thing will be absolutely certain.

I have a very different take on this point.

Let's suppose that Russians first-strike and nuke the US, and they're so successful that the US is wiped off the face of the planet with nuclear weapons, and there is zero damage to Russia. Far-fetched, I know, but this is just a make-believe hypothetical to prove a point.

The net result? I believe there will not be a place on Earth that Russians can vacation or travel to and not be scorned or hated (except maybe North Korea? but certainly no where with a beach..). I believe that Russians, as an ethnicity, will end. No one will want to be associated with Russia or being called a Russian and no amount of Russian propaganda will be able to change that.

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3181617/backlash-against-russians-living-abroad-all-too-familiar-anxious

The US is not an ethnicity - it is fundamentally a collection of people from around the globe who immigrated. The US is so interconnected to the world's financial systems, shipping of goods and services, relatives living abroad, etc. that there is no country on the planet that is not interconnected (except North Korea.. but our ally South Korea covers that part and the US has A LOT of ties to South Korea). Whether you love the US or hate it, the point is that it is what it is and no way to avoid it.

Plus, once the world sees the US, as a powerful country, wiped off the face of the Earth; they will probably turn to China for protection. And what will China do?

Russia will be the only impediment to China's rule of the planet. Xi may not want that. Other chinese officials may not want that. Now. But later? Who knows.

There is only one outcome for Russia and all Russians if they pull the nuclear trigger.

Feel better now?

No

I think the environmental impact from that kind of strike ends it for everyone.

Russia going nuclear is suicide for Russia. It would be pure idiocy.

No it’s not. Russia can still play this card and call our bluff. If Russia launches a strike against Ukraine, are we really going to respond? Are we willing to sacrifice Chicago for Kiev? Los Angeles for Odesa? No. We can certainly put a tighter economic squeeze on Russia but Putin has enough friends to avert an economic collapse.

Comrade Trollski:

We have a new saying in America:

“Fu** around and find out.”

If a nuclear weapon is detonated in Ukraine, I can absolutely promise you this:

NATO will very quickly use the massive military means at its disposal to obliterate what little remains of the Russian military.

Empty bravado.