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[quote=Anonymous]The more the Ukrainians focus on taking out anti-aircraft weaponry, the more that things like this will occur.  This shows a lack of faith there are sufficient means to deter Ukrainian drones.  This also helps as an indicator when the bombers will be used, since the tires must be removed off of the wings before takeoff.

"What you are looking at is a satellite image featuring a TU-95 strategic bomber covered with car tires. According to them, this should protect strategic bombers from drones"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-forces-using-car-tires-160125092.html

Putin's circle continues to shrink.

"Armenian PM: Russia isn’t defending us because we aren’t pro-Moscow enough"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/armenian-pm-russia-isn-t-185528966.html

Putin's circle has shrunk to the point where Russia is turning to North Korea for military supplies, which they do have ample stores of.

"Kim Jong Un plans to meet Vladimir Putin in Russia, U.S. official says"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/kim-jong-un-plans-meet-202910238.html

Think about this.  Russia is unable to produce enough artillery ammunition, so is turning to North Korea.  To save face, Putin is making Kim Jong Un take the "party train" to Moscow, where I'm guessing he'll be put into all sorts of compromising positions along the way?  (It's a Russian thing..)  However, if Kim Jong Un does make a deal with Moscow, he may be subject to internal criticism that he's softening North Korea's defense posture, unless he can return with Russian technology (which would not make the South Korean's very happy).  That means that South Korea has just as much a vested interest ensuring that this deal goes bad, since a modernized North Korea would be far more dangerous than it currently is.

Although North Korean artillery is antiquated, it is still effective in quantity.  Normally I'm critical of Rand reports, but this particular report does a good job of explaining why it's a potential concern and is well written.

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA600/RRA619-1/RAND_RRA619-1.pdf

Presumably the North Korean artillery would travel along the same route as Kim Jong Un is taking so could be vulnerable to rail disruption since it would be the only means to transport a large amount of equipment without using ships.[/quote]

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