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Metropolitan DC Local Politics
Reply to "Consolidated VA Elections Thread"
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[quote=Anonymous]Chaz Nuttycombe (liberal pollster, from Virginia Tech) has changed his prediction to say odds Youngkin win have gone up over the last week. He gives multiple updates per day. Sam Shirazi gives multiple updates per day. He’s optimistic for McAuliffe. Obviously, these are all predictions. Virginians do not register by party. Many of these pollsters think “Fairfax” or “Arlington” high turnout means all of the early votes are for McAuliffe. I live here and I know that’s not true at all. They are making broad assumptions based on historical trends for individual counties; they are not considering social issues (ie Loudoun school board scandal, etc.) in their predictions. I asked one of the pollster specifically if his prediction was “math-based” only. He said ‘yes’; no provisions for current events (Charlottesville stunt yesterday).[/quote]
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