Chaz Nuttycombe (liberal pollster, from Virginia Tech) has changed his prediction to say odds Youngkin win have gone up over the last week. He gives multiple updates per day.

Sam Shirazi gives multiple updates per day. He’s optimistic for McAuliffe.

Obviously, these are all predictions. Virginians do not register by party. Many of these pollsters think “Fairfax” or “Arlington” high turnout means all of the early votes are for McAuliffe.

I live here and I know that’s not true at all.

They are making broad assumptions based on historical trends for individual counties; they are not considering social issues (ie Loudoun school board scandal, etc.) in their predictions. I asked one of the pollster specifically if his prediction was “math-based” only. He said ‘yes’; no provisions for current events (Charlottesville stunt yesterday).

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why would I want a private equity guy in charge of public schools?

Why would you want someone like McAuliffe? He sent his kids to Potomac School--although one may have gone to Langley.

He never attended public schools at all. Catholic schools all the way through college and graduate school.

Not sure about Youngkin. He went to one of those private schools that push basketball. I'm guessing his kids went to private school, as well, but I couldn't easily find it.

Youngkin is listening to parents, though. McAuliffe is listening to Teachers' Unions.

Pick one.

I am going with teachers unions. Parents shouldn’t be telling schools what to teach. I am so done with this era where everyone thinks they know more than experts.

Which teachers unions would those be in Virginia? Just curious.

+1
Funny how liberals always call out anyone invoking "teachers' unions," but they freely use the term themselves. So curious.

Anonymous wrote:I’m a conservative, but I also read a lot of news from liberal pollsters. They seemed to be mainly concerned about extremely low turnout in Norfolk/Newport News area. The numbers coming out of early voting from that area are very bad (that’s why McAuliffe was there yesterday and today).

Another good source I check daily is vpap.org. Click on the “Early Voting” tab. You can see turnout by county, comparisons with 2020 and 2017 elections, etc.’

Dave Wasserman is another reputable political analyst. He has posted a spreadsheet of the percentages Youngkin needs to hit in each county to beat McAuliffe.

Younking getting huge crowed in Virginia Beach, Norfolk, and Chesapeake. I don't know if this is because Miyares is local there and very liked or other reasons, but the number of support for him is unprecedented in Hampton Roads.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Why would I want a private equity guy in charge of public schools?

Why would you want someone like McAuliffe? He sent his kids to Potomac School--although one may have gone to Langley.

He never attended public schools at all. Catholic schools all the way through college and graduate school.

Not sure about Youngkin. He went to one of those private schools that push basketball. I'm guessing his kids went to private school, as well, but I couldn't easily find it.

Youngkin is listening to parents, though. McAuliffe is listening to Teachers' Unions.

Pick one.

They both sent their kids to private school. But only one of them is a private equity guy.

And the other is con man who runs one of the most profitable enterprises of all - the vast fetid depths of the political swamp. I'll take the private equity guy, who's made his money honestly, thanks.
DP

I’m a conservative, but I also read a lot of news from liberal pollsters. They seemed to be mainly concerned about extremely low turnout in Norfolk/Newport News area. The numbers coming out of early voting from that area are very bad (that’s why McAuliffe was there yesterday and today).

Another good source I check daily is vpap.org. Click on the “Early Voting” tab. You can see turnout by county, comparisons with 2020 and 2017 elections, etc.’

Dave Wasserman is another reputable political analyst. He has posted a spreadsheet of the percentages Youngkin needs to hit in each county to beat McAuliffe.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m voting for Youngkin because I’m a teacher and see first hand what is happening in public schools in the area. We need drastic changes. Many teachers in my school will be voting for him.

As for the topic of school choice, I’m all for it. Public schools need some competition. Currently they are running wild and no longer care about academics.

Vouchers just destroy schools. That won't fix problems at the administrative level or with fads in progressive education.

And th will ensure pp’ working conditions get even worse when she’s expect do all the same stuff with fewer resources as funding moves to private and charter schools.

And she’d also better hope she never gets a class of kids who aren’t as strong academically, because Republicans favor accountability systems where teachers are evaluated based on things like non-relative SOL performance. Doesn’t matter how much you did to get Billy caught up this year when he came in two grade levels behind, if he just barely fails his SOL pp will get dinged for it in her performance review.

Youngkin plans to raise teacher pay, raise public school funding and focus money and resources into special ed, particularly learning loss from being kept out of school for 18 months and given zero instruction in the case of many special ed kids.

People are done listening to the left's scare tactics.

Why would I want a private equity guy in charge of public schools?

I know, right? So much better to have a cheesy millionaire businessman - who was sued by Chinese investors. DP.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/28/greentech-automotive-lawsuit-terry-mcauliffe-262771

Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe and former Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's brother Anthony Rodham are facing a $17 million fraud lawsuit from Chinese investors in Greentech Automotive, an electric car company that appears to be struggling to survive.

A group of 32 Chinese citizens filed the suit last week in Fairfax County, Virginia court, claiming that they were swindled out of about $560,000 apiece as a result of misrepresentations made by McAuliffe and Rodham—two of the most prominent and politically connected proponents of the venture aimed at manufacturing electric cars in the U.S.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It seems like the local Democratic pundits/pollsters (not the party hacks) are throwing in the towel on McAuliffe. He’s been passed by someone running a much smarter, more positive campaign, and since McAuliffe isn’t about anything but the hustle, that tells you something.

The biggest blunder was thinking that folks who’ve been dealing with lockdowns for 18 months really wanted to hear Debbie Downer dreck for months, aimed at someone whose novelty, cheery disposition, and inclusivity makes those comparisons particularly inapt.

I’ll go a step further and say I think the national D party is throwing in the towel on Terry. They can read the tea leaves too and it’s not worth the risk of the precarious position of the D slim lead in the House going into ‘22 to fall on a sword for him.

What does that mean? How would they fall on a sword for him if they were actually interested? Honest question.

Biden, Kamala, Obama et al expend political capital when they actively campaign for local candidates. They all came out to rallies for Terry, Terry loses and it’s a big negative reflection on them because they are pegged with a loser. Yes, they were all here last week in a last ditch attempt to save him, but watch them all to run like cockroaches when the lights come on as soon as he really starts to tank. Not to mention, watch the money. Youngkin has pulled in more in the last 2 weeks than Terry has, by a substantial margin. That’s a real sign the party big wigs are giving up and moving on to another race.

Thank you. A few questions - okay so maybe they've stopped fundraising for him? Its still a critical time to run ads on Election Day and the day before - so yeah that's huge. But I don't get the 'run like cockroaches'. They already came out for him as you said, would you be expecting all of them to be on the road in Virginia all Sunday and Monday as well? That's Terry's job. Or his surrogates job and although he's been bringing in national powerhouses, he really should have LOCAL surrogates who know the population and the county seats.

They will start to publicly distance themselves and try to “move on.” By November 3, it will be “Terry who?” He will sink into oblivion, never to be heard from again. That’s how Democrats treat their losers.

I mean he works for the Clintons. They keep their losers close.

Other than that - I think the national big-wigs will be worried. Luntz says VA is a bellweather for 2022 midterms.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It seems like the local Democratic pundits/pollsters (not the party hacks) are throwing in the towel on McAuliffe. He’s been passed by someone running a much smarter, more positive campaign, and since McAuliffe isn’t about anything but the hustle, that tells you something.

The biggest blunder was thinking that folks who’ve been dealing with lockdowns for 18 months really wanted to hear Debbie Downer dreck for months, aimed at someone whose novelty, cheery disposition, and inclusivity makes those comparisons particularly inapt.

I’ll go a step further and say I think the national D party is throwing in the towel on Terry. They can read the tea leaves too and it’s not worth the risk of the precarious position of the D slim lead in the House going into ‘22 to fall on a sword for him.

What does that mean? How would they fall on a sword for him if they were actually interested? Honest question.

Biden, Kamala, Obama et al expend political capital when they actively campaign for local candidates. They all came out to rallies for Terry, Terry loses and it’s a big negative reflection on them because they are pegged with a loser. Yes, they were all here last week in a last ditch attempt to save him, but watch them all to run like cockroaches when the lights come on as soon as he really starts to tank. Not to mention, watch the money. Youngkin has pulled in more in the last 2 weeks than Terry has, by a substantial margin. That’s a real sign the party big wigs are giving up and moving on to another race.

Thank you. A few questions - okay so maybe they've stopped fundraising for him? Its still a critical time to run ads on Election Day and the day before - so yeah that's huge. But I don't get the 'run like cockroaches'. They already came out for him as you said, would you be expecting all of them to be on the road in Virginia all Sunday and Monday as well? That's Terry's job. Or his surrogates job and although he's been bringing in national powerhouses, he really should have LOCAL surrogates who know the population and the county seats.

They will start to publicly distance themselves and try to “move on.” By November 3, it will be “Terry who?” He will sink into oblivion, never to be heard from again. That’s how Democrats treat their losers.

I hope he will join Hillary camp and never surface again.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am still trying to get my head around Terry's campaign being blamed for a stunt orchestrated by republicans.

A) The stunt has been connected to Democrat operatives. Fact.

B) The stunt was set to make his rival look extremely bad and McAuliffe's poll numbers were sliding. Fact.

C) Public campaign oversight has shown that McAuliffe paid the Lincoln group during this campaign. Fact.

D) Several of the stunt instigators have been allegedly connected to the Democrat Party of Virginia.

E) National media, heavily left-leaning, refuse to investigate or identify the names or positions of the instigators even with clear pictures from multiple angles. Fact.

All roads lead to Terry.

It is being investigated right now. Stay tuned to the news.

The news that releases on Wednesday, November 3rd at 8:00AM? Because it takes 72 hours to look at a photo, ask your neighbor 'Hey Chad - isn't that that douche that went to Georgetown and works for so-and-so who lives down the hall?', and then confirm the spelling of their name on linkedin?

Social media already positively identified (allegedly) 4 of the instigators. And if that's not enough all they had to do was charge the allegedly Lincoln/Democrat operative conspirator with defamation and get her to actually name the instigators in an emergency court order. That's if she actually has a list she can pull out from somewhere.

The FBI is investigating right now. I’m not talking about Internet keyboard warriors.

You think the FBI will announce anything before Wednesday? The holy crap they got from 2016 says otherwise.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am still trying to get my head around Terry's campaign being blamed for a stunt orchestrated by republicans.

A) The stunt has been connected to Democrat operatives. Fact.

B) The stunt was set to make his rival look extremely bad and McAuliffe's poll numbers were sliding. Fact.

C) Public campaign oversight has shown that McAuliffe paid the Lincoln group during this campaign. Fact.

D) Several of the stunt instigators have been allegedly connected to the Democrat Party of Virginia.

E) National media, heavily left-leaning, refuse to investigate or identify the names or positions of the instigators even with clear pictures from multiple angles. Fact.

All roads lead to Terry.

It is being investigated right now. Stay tuned to the news.

The news that releases on Wednesday, November 3rd at 8:00AM? Because it takes 72 hours to look at a photo, ask your neighbor 'Hey Chad - isn't that that douche that went to Georgetown and works for so-and-so who lives down the hall?', and then confirm the spelling of their name on linkedin?

Social media already positively identified (allegedly) 4 of the instigators. And if that's not enough all they had to do was charge the allegedly Lincoln/Democrat operative conspirator with defamation and get her to actually name the instigators in an emergency court order. That's if she actually has a list she can pull out from somewhere.

The FBI is investigating right now. I’m not talking about Internet keyboard warriors.

Lol the FBI isn’t investigating anything. What crime was committed?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Someone asked about reputable pollsters.

I follow quite a few.

Check out Frank Luntz. He’s nationally known pollster. He said yesterday, based on historical data, 80% prediction for Youngkin. I about fell out of my chair.

You can see a video of the comment on his Twitter (he posted it yesterday afternoon). He can explain his reasoning/analysis better than I can explain it here.

This is copied from his tweet: “ I told @TeamCavuto this afternoon that @GlennYoungkin
has an 80% chance of winning next week’s gubernatorial race in Virginia.”

That was me - anyone giving hourly or multiple times a day updates on where they see things going?

Luntz's video was great, thanks! Explains how with Youngkin gains every day why FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics placed in the lead today. The margin will be even higher tomorrow.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It seems like the local Democratic pundits/pollsters (not the party hacks) are throwing in the towel on McAuliffe. He’s been passed by someone running a much smarter, more positive campaign, and since McAuliffe isn’t about anything but the hustle, that tells you something.

The biggest blunder was thinking that folks who’ve been dealing with lockdowns for 18 months really wanted to hear Debbie Downer dreck for months, aimed at someone whose novelty, cheery disposition, and inclusivity makes those comparisons particularly inapt.

I’ll go a step further and say I think the national D party is throwing in the towel on Terry. They can read the tea leaves too and it’s not worth the risk of the precarious position of the D slim lead in the House going into ‘22 to fall on a sword for him.

What does that mean? How would they fall on a sword for him if they were actually interested? Honest question.

Biden, Kamala, Obama et al expend political capital when they actively campaign for local candidates. They all came out to rallies for Terry, Terry loses and it’s a big negative reflection on them because they are pegged with a loser. Yes, they were all here last week in a last ditch attempt to save him, but watch them all to run like cockroaches when the lights come on as soon as he really starts to tank. Not to mention, watch the money. Youngkin has pulled in more in the last 2 weeks than Terry has, by a substantial margin. That’s a real sign the party big wigs are giving up and moving on to another race.

Thank you. A few questions - okay so maybe they've stopped fundraising for him? Its still a critical time to run ads on Election Day and the day before - so yeah that's huge. But I don't get the 'run like cockroaches'. They already came out for him as you said, would you be expecting all of them to be on the road in Virginia all Sunday and Monday as well? That's Terry's job. Or his surrogates job and although he's been bringing in national powerhouses, he really should have LOCAL surrogates who know the population and the county seats.

They will start to publicly distance themselves and try to “move on.” By November 3, it will be “Terry who?” He will sink into oblivion, never to be heard from again. That’s how Democrats treat their losers.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am still trying to get my head around Terry's campaign being blamed for a stunt orchestrated by republicans.

A) The stunt has been connected to Democrat operatives. Fact.

B) The stunt was set to make his rival look extremely bad and McAuliffe's poll numbers were sliding. Fact.

C) Public campaign oversight has shown that McAuliffe paid the Lincoln group during this campaign. Fact.

D) Several of the stunt instigators have been allegedly connected to the Democrat Party of Virginia.

E) National media, heavily left-leaning, refuse to investigate or identify the names or positions of the instigators even with clear pictures from multiple angles. Fact.

All roads lead to Terry.

It is being investigated right now. Stay tuned to the news.

The news that releases on Wednesday, November 3rd at 8:00AM? Because it takes 72 hours to look at a photo, ask your neighbor 'Hey Chad - isn't that that douche that went to Georgetown and works for so-and-so who lives down the hall?', and then confirm the spelling of their name on linkedin?

Social media already positively identified (allegedly) 4 of the instigators. And if that's not enough all they had to do was charge the allegedly Lincoln/Democrat operative conspirator with defamation and get her to actually name the instigators in an emergency court order. That's if she actually has a list she can pull out from somewhere.

The FBI is investigating right now. I’m not talking about Internet keyboard warriors.

Anonymous wrote:Someone asked about reputable pollsters.

I follow quite a few.

Check out Frank Luntz. He’s nationally known pollster. He said yesterday, based on historical data, 80% prediction for Youngkin. I about fell out of my chair.

You can see a video of the comment on his Twitter (he posted it yesterday afternoon). He can explain his reasoning/analysis better than I can explain it here.

This is copied from his tweet: “ I told @TeamCavuto this afternoon that @GlennYoungkin
has an 80% chance of winning next week’s gubernatorial race in Virginia.”

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I am still trying to get my head around Terry's campaign being blamed for a stunt orchestrated by republicans.

A) The stunt has been connected to Democrat operatives. Fact.

B) The stunt was set to make his rival look extremely bad and McAuliffe's poll numbers were sliding. Fact.

C) Public campaign oversight has shown that McAuliffe paid the Lincoln group during this campaign. Fact.

D) Several of the stunt instigators have been allegedly connected to the Democrat Party of Virginia.

E) National media, heavily left-leaning, refuse to investigate or identify the names or positions of the instigators even with clear pictures from multiple angles. Fact.

All roads lead to Terry.

It is being investigated right now. Stay tuned to the news.

The news that releases on Wednesday, November 3rd at 8:00AM? Because it takes 72 hours to look at a photo, ask your neighbor 'Hey Chad - isn't that that douche that went to Georgetown and works for so-and-so who lives down the hall?', and then confirm the spelling of their name on linkedin?

Social media already positively identified (allegedly) 4 of the instigators. And if that's not enough all they had to do was charge the allegedly Lincoln/Democrat operative conspirator with defamation and get her to actually name the instigators in an emergency court order. That's if she actually has a list she can pull out from somewhere.