Reply to Here is why we should close schools now.

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Sort of weird there's so much panic here but very little in real life, at least in my circles.  Is it just a few doomsday posters?[/quote]

Not to sound snippy but it's possible that no-one in your real life circle feels comfortable enough to share their concerns.

Here are two Twitter threads for you to glance over. You may think they are doomers. They sound very reasonable and fact-based to me but it's been adapted for layman understanding and the Twitter platform's format.

On why close schools:
https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204443362205699

On what the exponential nature of this disease's spread implies:
https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909
[/quote]

Is there any evidence that covid-19 will behave like the flu as far as disappearing after a season? All of these links (and posters in this thread) seem to be acting as if it's known science that covid-19 will behave the way the flu does, and so closing schools will be a temporary measure that slows an epidemic. But why? It is entirely possible covid-19 will not act like the flu, and then what result? Do schools remain permanently closed?

I'm not opposed to closing schools in a more widespread fashion, but I haven't seen strong scientific evidence that it will work the was people claim it will, and it will come with enormous social costs. The science that there is seems to be based on the flu, but don't it we already know covid-19 doesn't uniformly act like the flu, particularly with respect to transmission through children? What basis is there for assuming the flu models are correct here?
[/quote]
Closing schools wouldn't be like hiding in a bunker during a hurricane. It won't be over when we come out. Read the Twitter thread! He explains it better than I can and there is a slight chance you won't shrug him off as a crazy doomer like many do me.
In a clumsy nutshell, the purpose is to flatten the curve of hospitalizations and reduce the number of people who get infected so that hospitals can take care of a smaller number of patients over a longer time period, rather than doing the kind of triage than Wuhan and Italy have resorted to where only a fraction of those who need intensive care get it and the rest die, when modern medicine, in theory, could have kept more of them alive. I know it's a bit abstract, and it's not The Cure but it's the best non-drug measure we have (and we won't have any drugs for this in 2021 at the soonest). The sooner it's done the more lives can be spared.[/quote]

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