Anonymous
03/09/2020 13:19
Subject: Here is why we should close schools now.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Sort of weird there's so much panic here but very little in real life, at least in my circles. Is it just a few doomsday posters?
Not to sound snippy but it's possible that no-one in your real life circle feels comfortable enough to share their concerns.
Here are two Twitter threads for you to glance over. You may think they are doomers. They sound very reasonable and fact-based to me but it's been adapted for layman understanding and the Twitter platform's format.
On why close schools:
https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204443362205699
On what the exponential nature of this disease's spread implies:
https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909
Is there any evidence that covid-19 will behave like the flu as far as disappearing after a season? All of these links (and posters in this thread) seem to be acting as if it's known science that covid-19 will behave the way the flu does, and so closing schools will be a temporary measure that slows an epidemic. But why? It is entirely possible covid-19 will not act like the flu, and then what result? Do schools remain permanently closed?
I'm not opposed to closing schools in a more widespread fashion, but I haven't seen strong scientific evidence that it will work the was people claim it will, and it will come with enormous social costs. The science that there is seems to be based on the flu, but don't it we already know covid-19 doesn't uniformly act like the flu, particularly with respect to transmission through children? What basis is there for assuming the flu models are correct here?
A question or you: you say "I haven't seen strong scientific evidence", but have you looked enough? Are you familiar with reading scientific literature on topics slightly outside of your lane? Have you read scientific articles, reviews, guidelines, on non-pharmaceutical interventions? Or are you just trying to keep the doomers occupied typing?
Anonymous
03/09/2020 13:18
Subject: Here is why we should close schools now.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Sort of weird there's so much panic here but very little in real life, at least in my circles. Is it just a few doomsday posters?
Not to sound snippy but it's possible that no-one in your real life circle feels comfortable enough to share their concerns.
Here are two Twitter threads for you to glance over. You may think they are doomers. They sound very reasonable and fact-based to me but it's been adapted for layman understanding and the Twitter platform's format.
On why close schools:
https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204443362205699
On what the exponential nature of this disease's spread implies:
https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909
Is there any evidence that covid-19 will behave like the flu as far as disappearing after a season? All of these links (and posters in this thread) seem to be acting as if it's known science that covid-19 will behave the way the flu does, and so closing schools will be a temporary measure that slows an epidemic. But why? It is entirely possible covid-19 will not act like the flu, and then what result? Do schools remain permanently closed?
I'm not opposed to closing schools in a more widespread fashion, but I haven't seen strong scientific evidence that it will work the was people claim it will, and it will come with enormous social costs. The science that there is seems to be based on the flu, but don't it we already know covid-19 doesn't uniformly act like the flu, particularly with respect to transmission through children? What basis is there for assuming the flu models are correct here?
Schools WILL CLOSE during the peak of an outbreak.
I 100% guarantee it.
As soon as ICUs fill up they will close.
It has happened in every country so far. It will happen here too unless they keep the ICUs functioning some way without sufficient PPE
So if a drug is found that prevents the illness from progressing into pneumonia.
Anonymous
03/09/2020 13:17
Subject: Here is why we should close schools now.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Sort of weird there's so much panic here but very little in real life, at least in my circles. Is it just a few doomsday posters?
Not to sound snippy but it's possible that no-one in your real life circle feels comfortable enough to share their concerns.
Here are two Twitter threads for you to glance over. You may think they are doomers. They sound very reasonable and fact-based to me but it's been adapted for layman understanding and the Twitter platform's format.
On why close schools:
https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204443362205699
On what the exponential nature of this disease's spread implies:
https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909
Is there any evidence that covid-19 will behave like the flu as far as disappearing after a season? All of these links (and posters in this thread) seem to be acting as if it's known science that covid-19 will behave the way the flu does, and so closing schools will be a temporary measure that slows an epidemic. But why? It is entirely possible covid-19 will not act like the flu, and then what result? Do schools remain permanently closed?
I'm not opposed to closing schools in a more widespread fashion, but I haven't seen strong scientific evidence that it will work the was people claim it will, and it will come with enormous social costs. The science that there is seems to be based on the flu, but don't it we already know covid-19 doesn't uniformly act like the flu, particularly with respect to transmission through children? What basis is there for assuming the flu models are correct here?
You're correct - this isn't like the flu, and assertions that it will just "go away" in the summer are unfounded. The point of closing schools is to slow down the spread, so our health system can keep up with patients. When infections get down to a manageable level and we have built up our capacity more (things like a good PPE manufacturing and distribution volume) then schools can reopen even if there is some spread.
Anonymous
03/09/2020 13:16
Subject: Here is why we should close schools now.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Sort of weird there's so much panic here but very little in real life, at least in my circles. Is it just a few doomsday posters?
Not to sound snippy but it's possible that no-one in your real life circle feels comfortable enough to share their concerns.
Here are two Twitter threads for you to glance over. You may think they are doomers. They sound very reasonable and fact-based to me but it's been adapted for layman understanding and the Twitter platform's format.
On why close schools:
https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204443362205699
On what the exponential nature of this disease's spread implies:
https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909
Is there any evidence that covid-19 will behave like the flu as far as disappearing after a season? All of these links (and posters in this thread) seem to be acting as if it's known science that covid-19 will behave the way the flu does, and so closing schools will be a temporary measure that slows an epidemic. But why? It is entirely possible covid-19 will not act like the flu, and then what result? Do schools remain permanently closed?
I'm not opposed to closing schools in a more widespread fashion, but I haven't seen strong scientific evidence that it will work the was people claim it will, and it will come with enormous social costs. The science that there is seems to be based on the flu, but don't it we already know covid-19 doesn't uniformly act like the flu, particularly with respect to transmission through children? What basis is there for assuming the flu models are correct here?
Closing schools wouldn't be like hiding in a bunker during a hurricane. It won't be over when we come out. Read the Twitter thread! He explains it better than I can and there is a slight chance you won't shrug him off as a crazy doomer like many do me.
In a clumsy nutshell, the purpose is to flatten the curve of hospitalizations and reduce the number of people who get infected so that hospitals can take care of a smaller number of patients over a longer time period, rather than doing the kind of triage than Wuhan and Italy have resorted to where only a fraction of those who need intensive care get it and the rest die, when modern medicine, in theory, could have kept more of them alive. I know it's a bit abstract, and it's not The Cure but it's the best non-drug measure we have (and we won't have any drugs for this in 2021 at the soonest). The sooner it's done the more lives can be spared.
Anonymous
03/09/2020 13:14
Subject: Here is why we should close schools now.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Sort of weird there's so much panic here but very little in real life, at least in my circles. Is it just a few doomsday posters?
Well, have you been to any stores lately? People may be acting "cool" on the outside, but I guarantee they stocked up and probably cancelled spring break plans if it involves commercial flying. Every company my family and friends work in/are on the board of have restricted travel, all the private schools have issued related restrictions, as have colleges. Quite, non-panicked, action to self-protect among the 5-1%.
I don't know anyone who has cancelled spring break plans.
Not that they'll tell you. They know you'll think they are nuts.
Huh? I could totally understand why people would. No one I know has.
I know people who have. Trip to Asia, canceled. Trip to Vegas, canceled. Trip to Seattle, canceled. And I know a bunch of people who went to Costco over the last week and a half and stockpiled. Upper NW DC.
We were supposed to go to SXSW, so we are cancelling since it isn't happening.
Anonymous
03/09/2020 13:14
Subject: Here is why we should close schools now.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Dulles is empty, 3 Acela trains a day have been taken off the schedule. Disney wi be empty at spring break.
Ooooh thanks for the laugh! I needed that.
Come back in Spring and we check again.
Japan’s Disney is still open.
Anonymous
03/09/2020 13:13
Subject: Re:Here is why we should close schools now.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
Soap, watr, air, all we needed in 1918.. it work then it will work now. No worries.
Well in fairness, in 1918 they didn't even know it was a virus, so....
And killed 657,000 Americans.
Anonymous
03/09/2020 13:09
Subject: Here is why we should close schools now.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Sort of weird there's so much panic here but very little in real life, at least in my circles. Is it just a few doomsday posters?
Not to sound snippy but it's possible that no-one in your real life circle feels comfortable enough to share their concerns.
Here are two Twitter threads for you to glance over. You may think they are doomers. They sound very reasonable and fact-based to me but it's been adapted for layman understanding and the Twitter platform's format.
On why close schools:
https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204443362205699
On what the exponential nature of this disease's spread implies:
https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909
People have certainly discussed concerns, but a number of friends went to indoor birthday parties, took kids ice skating / to sporting events / to restaurants, are all at work today, etc.
NP. We have fulfilled all social commitments (ie birthday parties) that we accepted to attend weeks ago. We will be declining future party invitations. DD has one more indoor sports class, and after that we are staying away from those sport facilities.
Fresh air, walks in the woods -- our main plan of action!
Anonymous
03/09/2020 13:08
Subject: Re:Here is why we should close schools now.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:
Soap, watr, air, all we needed in 1918.. it work then it will work now. No worries.
Well in fairness, in 1918 they didn't even know it was a virus, so....
Anonymous
03/09/2020 13:07
Subject: Here is why we should close schools now.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Sort of weird there's so much panic here but very little in real life, at least in my circles. Is it just a few doomsday posters?
Not to sound snippy but it's possible that no-one in your real life circle feels comfortable enough to share their concerns.
Here are two Twitter threads for you to glance over. You may think they are doomers. They sound very reasonable and fact-based to me but it's been adapted for layman understanding and the Twitter platform's format.
On why close schools:
https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204443362205699
On what the exponential nature of this disease's spread implies:
https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909
People have certainly discussed concerns, but a number of friends went to indoor birthday parties, took kids ice skating / to sporting events / to restaurants, are all at work today, etc.
A lot of young families are banking on the stats that show they are not likely to be among the unfortunate that actually die. Plus there is a "too cool to close school" mentality which somehow makes them dismissive of the impact on other areas. We see that on DCUM all the time: the Chinese are smokers, the Italians kiss on both cheeks to greet each other, the Korean church was a cult, the Seattle cases were all old folks in a nursing home. Soon COVID-19 will be coming for the rest of us.
Anonymous
03/09/2020 13:05
Subject: Here is why we should close schools now.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Sort of weird there's so much panic here but very little in real life, at least in my circles. Is it just a few doomsday posters?
Not to sound snippy but it's possible that no-one in your real life circle feels comfortable enough to share their concerns.
Here are two Twitter threads for you to glance over. You may think they are doomers. They sound very reasonable and fact-based to me but it's been adapted for layman understanding and the Twitter platform's format.
On why close schools:
https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204443362205699
On what the exponential nature of this disease's spread implies:
https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909
Is there any evidence that covid-19 will behave like the flu as far as disappearing after a season? All of these links (and posters in this thread) seem to be acting as if it's known science that covid-19 will behave the way the flu does, and so closing schools will be a temporary measure that slows an epidemic. But why? It is entirely possible covid-19 will not act like the flu, and then what result? Do schools remain permanently closed?
I'm not opposed to closing schools in a more widespread fashion, but I haven't seen strong scientific evidence that it will work the was people claim it will, and it will come with enormous social costs. The science that there is seems to be based on the flu, but don't it we already know covid-19 doesn't uniformly act like the flu, particularly with respect to transmission through children? What basis is there for assuming the flu models are correct here?
Anonymous
03/09/2020 13:02
Subject: Here is why we should close schools now.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Sort of weird there's so much panic here but very little in real life, at least in my circles. Is it just a few doomsday posters?
Not to sound snippy but it's possible that no-one in your real life circle feels comfortable enough to share their concerns.
Here are two Twitter threads for you to glance over. You may think they are doomers. They sound very reasonable and fact-based to me but it's been adapted for layman understanding and the Twitter platform's format.
On why close schools:
https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204443362205699
On what the exponential nature of this disease's spread implies:
https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909
People have certainly discussed concerns, but a number of friends went to indoor birthday parties, took kids ice skating / to sporting events / to restaurants, are all at work today, etc.
We are in APS, and tons of friends went to Disney or skiing out West or to NYC this past weekend because we had a long weekend. Hopefully this things spreads quickly and then dies out.
Anonymous
03/09/2020 13:00
Subject: Here is why we should close schools now.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Dulles is empty, 3 Acela trains a day have been taken off the schedule. Disney wi be empty at spring break.
Ooooh thanks for the laugh! I needed that.
Come back in Spring and we check again.
Anonymous
03/09/2020 12:59
Subject: Here is why we should close schools now.
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Sort of weird there's so much panic here but very little in real life, at least in my circles. Is it just a few doomsday posters?
Not to sound snippy but it's possible that no-one in your real life circle feels comfortable enough to share their concerns.
Here are two Twitter threads for you to glance over. You may think they are doomers. They sound very reasonable and fact-based to me but it's been adapted for layman understanding and the Twitter platform's format.
On why close schools:
https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204443362205699
On what the exponential nature of this disease's spread implies:
https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909
People have certainly discussed concerns, but a number of friends went to indoor birthday parties, took kids ice skating / to sporting events / to restaurants, are all at work today, etc.
Anonymous
03/09/2020 12:58
Subject: Here is why we should close schools now.
Anonymous wrote:Dulles is empty, 3 Acela trains a day have been taken off the schedule. Disney wi be empty at spring break.
Ooooh thanks for the laugh! I needed that.