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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Well it strikes me that 2.0 is an effective way to deal with capacity issues.  Hearing that families are fleeing the system probably doesn't bring a tear to the eyes of MCPS administrators who would see a pretty big problem solved if, say, 20% of current students left the public system in favor of private. [/quote]

(Note:  I am the PP who does not work for MCPS.)

K-5 enrollment is 68,332. There are 132 elementary schools, so the mean number of students per elementary school is 518. 20% of 68,332 is 13,667. Do you think that 13,667 students (equivalent to the enrollment at 26 average-sized elementary schools) are going to leave MCPS and go to private school because of 2.0?

(By the way, which private elementary schools in the area have the capacity for 13,667 more students?)

Also keep in mind that overall, 33% of MCPS students have FARMS status. Let's assume that's 33% of K-5 enrollment as well. That's 22,550 elementary school students whose parents almost certainly cannot afford private school. So the 13,667 elementary students are actually a subset of the 45,782 students who do not have FARMS status. In other words, 30% of K-5 elementary students who do not have FARMS status will leave MCPS and go to private school because of 2.0.

Alternatively, 42% of MCPS students have had FARMS status at some point. Let's make the same assumptions. 42% of K-5 enrollment, 29,041 students can't afford private school, 39,291 maybe can, 13,667 is 35% of 39,291 -- so 35% of K-5 elementary students who have never had FARMS status will leave MCPS and go to private school because of 2.0?

I actually this is kind of fun. But meanwhile, you all really need to get out more. There are a million people in Montgomery County. You and your friends and acquaintances are not a representative sample. (Mine aren't either.)

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