Reply to What's behind the surge in applications to some schools?

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[quote=Anonymous]It's interesting to see how things are shaking out. Anyone still in high school is going to be looking at $100,000 per year if they choose to attend private universities or OOS like Michigan or UCLA. $400,000 is a lot of money for most families. And then times 2 for average families with two kids. At this price point, people are really focused on what's worth it and what's not. Unsurprisingly, apps at pretty much every state flagship are way up. And that will likely continue even as the number of students nationally declines. That is driven by price. But also because state flagships tend to be pretty good in the STEM majors. It's already extremely difficult to gain acceptance as an engineering major to state schools like UMD, UIUC, Georgia Tech, Washington, Purdue and so on. It's not going to get any easier.

Among the expensive private universities, there is a clear preference for urban schools in desirable cities - USC, BU, NEU, NYU. I have no idea how expensive privates in less desirable locations like rural New England or the Midwest are going to manage over the next twenty years. They are going to struggle.

It's unclear how to read things at the T20 private universities. Test Optional and the Common App have distorted things in recent years. A whole bunch of 1250 SATs saw a window to apply to the Ivies and similar. And so they applied TO, because why not? There are hundreds of thousands of 4.0 GPAs out there in the grade inflation era. SAT/ACT scores used to be a barrier, and for roughly five years that barrier went away.

But as schools start to demand test scores again, the barrier is coming back up. It seems certain schools are out of favor - Harvard and Columbia - and certain schools are experiencing a surge in popularity - Cornell and Brown. But it's hard to make generalizations. Harvard and Columbia have suffered through exceptionally bad press for a few years now. I suspect the top urban schools - Vanderbilt, Northwestern, Rice, Chicago, Penn - will continue to see record applications year after year. And so too will the schools with exceptionally strong brands like Duke and Notre Dame.

It comes down to what's worth it at this price point. State flagships and strong urban schools seem to be where it's at for the foreseeable future. Expensive privates outside the top 70 or so are going to struggle to attract students at these prices. And all schools in bad locations are going to have a hard time.    [/quote]

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