Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:University of Texas saw a massive increase, from 72,000 to 90,000. USC got more than 42,000 EA applications. UVA saw a huge spike. Northeastern went from 98,000 applications to over 107,000. Overall, applications in the Common App increased from 6.3 million to 6.7 million.

I thought that the demographic cliff would be kicking in, but it looks like it is harder than ever.

Two of those are a great educational value
Northeastern likely up from marketing and fee waivers

Northeastern is actually better performing school than the other two

Lol. Sure.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:[color=red]What's behind the surge in applications to some schools?

Three reasons:
1) The Common App: Once you get a few apps in via the Common App, it doesn't take as much heavy lifting as it used to to add another school or three. And often, its possible to re-purpose the base of essays used for other schools. So it's not much to simply tack on more schools this way...

2) The Vicious Cycle: Per #1 above, the Common App makes it easier to add more applications than it used to be. So applications go up while the schools' capacity for how many applications they accept remain the same... so admit rates decline... kids then see this spike in applications and declination in admit rates, get scared that their initial list of 5-8 schools isn't broad enough... so what do they do? They react by applying to more schools since the Common App makes it easy.... it's a vicious cycle.

3) Test Optional: Adding to all of this, we are now several years into Test Optional and kids look at reaches and say "I'll just take a flyer on this and will go test optional"... so Test Optional encourages more applications too.

All of this is part of the new normal. No surprises here.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know so many high stats kids who are applying to rolling EAs like Pitt and publics like Wisconsin and MN, when they have no intention of going. These are not their real safeties.

They're kids who just always do the most, so why not apply august before senior year begins to a bunch of EA publics because "I want to get my safeties in early, and I can apply to these schools and also do SCEA to Yale". Oh, okay!

Wait, I don’t get it. Why are early rolling schools “not real safeties”?

PP They are. But the kids I'm talking about really are hoping for T20 schools and the safety of choice is Macalaster or Santa Clara or GW or Wisconsin. And they should apply to a couple, but they apply to all of them plus Pitt but SUNY and then also GMU and maybe McGill because there's no essay and also UVM because they like to ski and it's like .. you really don't need 10 safeties, guy. You have a 1540, you're full pay, and are coming from a private school.

More and more I think private schools that limit apps are doing god's work on this.

I completely agree with this. My kid was deferred early and then between EA apps already submitted and RD submitted 25 apps. In large part because other kids from the school also submitted that many, including several of the kids that are assumed to be at the very top of the class (but were also deferred). So worry set in that the top kids would get all the spots and then the thinking became "i have to make sure i apply to a school that my very top friend did not". It's all so stupid. I would 1000% love if the school only allowed 10 apps a kid. It would have really helped this.

It's interesting to see how things are shaking out. Anyone still in high school is going to be looking at $100,000 per year if they choose to attend private universities or OOS like Michigan or UCLA. $400,000 is a lot of money for most families. And then times 2 for average families with two kids. At this price point, people are really focused on what's worth it and what's not. Unsurprisingly, apps at pretty much every state flagship are way up. And that will likely continue even as the number of students nationally declines. That is driven by price. But also because state flagships tend to be pretty good in the STEM majors. It's already extremely difficult to gain acceptance as an engineering major to state schools like UMD, UIUC, Georgia Tech, Washington, Purdue and so on. It's not going to get any easier.

Among the expensive private universities, there is a clear preference for urban schools in desirable cities - USC, BU, NEU, NYU. I have no idea how expensive privates in less desirable locations like rural New England or the Midwest are going to manage over the next twenty years. They are going to struggle.

It's unclear how to read things at the T20 private universities. Test Optional and the Common App have distorted things in recent years. A whole bunch of 1250 SATs saw a window to apply to the Ivies and similar. And so they applied TO, because why not? There are hundreds of thousands of 4.0 GPAs out there in the grade inflation era. SAT/ACT scores used to be a barrier, and for roughly five years that barrier went away.

But as schools start to demand test scores again, the barrier is coming back up. It seems certain schools are out of favor - Harvard and Columbia - and certain schools are experiencing a surge in popularity - Cornell and Brown. But it's hard to make generalizations. Harvard and Columbia have suffered through exceptionally bad press for a few years now. I suspect the top urban schools - Vanderbilt, Northwestern, Rice, Chicago, Penn - will continue to see record applications year after year. And so too will the schools with exceptionally strong brands like Duke and Notre Dame.

It comes down to what's worth it at this price point. State flagships and strong urban schools seem to be where it's at for the foreseeable future. Expensive privates outside the top 70 or so are going to struggle to attract students at these prices. And all schools in bad locations are going to have a hard time.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know so many high stats kids who are applying to rolling EAs like Pitt and publics like Wisconsin and MN, when they have no intention of going. These are not their real safeties.

They're kids who just always do the most, so why not apply august before senior year begins to a bunch of EA publics because "I want to get my safeties in early, and I can apply to these schools and also do SCEA to Yale". Oh, okay!

Wait, I don’t get it. Why are early rolling schools “not real safeties”?

PP They are. But the kids I'm talking about really are hoping for T20 schools and the safety of choice is Macalaster or Santa Clara or GW or Wisconsin. And they should apply to a couple, but they apply to all of them plus Pitt but SUNY and then also GMU and maybe McGill because there's no essay and also UVM because they like to ski and it's like .. you really don't need 10 safeties, guy. You have a 1540, you're full pay, and are coming from a private school.

More and more I think private schools that limit apps are doing god's work on this.

Hmmm. I don’t know. I can tell you are just a commentator on the side without a kid going through the process today.

My kid applied to:

5 safeties.
6 targets and
11 reaches.
Pretty balanced.

Actually I have a kid in the class of 25. Got into their SCEA so one and done. And our school does limit apps so doing 22 is far far outside my experience though

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:[color=red]What's behind the surge in applications to some schools?

Three reasons:
1) The Common App: Once you get a few apps in via the Common App, it doesn't take as much heavy lifting as it used to to add another school or three. And often, its possible to re-purpose the base of essays used for other schools. So it's not much to simply tack on more schools this way...

2) The Vicious Cycle: Per #1 above, the Common App makes it easier to add more applications than it used to be. So applications go up while the schools' capacity for how many applications they accept remain the same... so admit rates decline... kids then see this spike in applications and declination in admit rates, get scared that their initial list of 5-8 schools isn't broad enough... so what do they do? They react by applying to more schools since the Common App makes it easy.... it's a vicious cycle.

3) Test Optional: Adding to all of this, we are now several years into Test Optional and kids look at reaches and say "I'll just take a flyer on this and will go test optional"... so Test Optional encourages more applications too.

THIS.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know so many high stats kids who are applying to rolling EAs like Pitt and publics like Wisconsin and MN, when they have no intention of going. These are not their real safeties.

They're kids who just always do the most, so why not apply august before senior year begins to a bunch of EA publics because "I want to get my safeties in early, and I can apply to these schools and also do SCEA to Yale". Oh, okay!

Wait, I don’t get it. Why are early rolling schools “not real safeties”?

PP They are. But the kids I'm talking about really are hoping for T20 schools and the safety of choice is Macalaster or Santa Clara or GW or Wisconsin. And they should apply to a couple, but they apply to all of them plus Pitt but SUNY and then also GMU and maybe McGill because there's no essay and also UVM because they like to ski and it's like .. you really don't need 10 safeties, guy. You have a 1540, you're full pay, and are coming from a private school.

More and more I think private schools that limit apps are doing god's work on this.

Hmmm. I don’t know. I can tell you are just a commentator on the side without a kid going through the process today.

My kid applied to:

5 safeties.
6 targets and
11 reaches.
Pretty balanced.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know so many high stats kids who are applying to rolling EAs like Pitt and publics like Wisconsin and MN, when they have no intention of going. These are not their real safeties.

They're kids who just always do the most, so why not apply august before senior year begins to a bunch of EA publics because "I want to get my safeties in early, and I can apply to these schools and also do SCEA to Yale". Oh, okay!

Wait, I don’t get it. Why are early rolling schools “not real safeties”?

PP They are. But the kids I'm talking about really are hoping for T20 schools and the safety of choice is Macalaster or Santa Clara or GW or Wisconsin. And they should apply to a couple, but they apply to all of them plus Pitt but SUNY and then also GMU and maybe McGill because there's no essay and also UVM because they like to ski and it's like .. you really don't need 10 safeties, guy. You have a 1540, you're full pay, and are coming from a private school.

More and more I think private schools that limit apps are doing god's work on this.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I know so many high stats kids who are applying to rolling EAs like Pitt and publics like Wisconsin and MN, when they have no intention of going. These are not their real safeties.

They're kids who just always do the most, so why not apply august before senior year begins to a bunch of EA publics because "I want to get my safeties in early, and I can apply to these schools and also do SCEA to Yale". Oh, okay!

Wait, I don’t get it. Why are early rolling schools “not real safeties”?

I think the PP means that the kid does not intend to go. But, of course, the point of a safety is in fact to attend if nothing else works out. Perhaps it's more accurate to say that the kid hopes to attend elsewhere instead but would prefer to attend the safety rather than community college.

A rolling school that returns an early acceptance becomes a safety as soon as that acceptance is in hand and it is certain to be affordable.

I think applying to 20 schools is normal if aiming for selective schools, no financial need, and deferred in REA or ED.

Makes sense. Don’t think that changes with population issues.

Anonymous wrote:I know so many high stats kids who are applying to rolling EAs like Pitt and publics like Wisconsin and MN, when they have no intention of going. These are not their real safeties.

They're kids who just always do the most, so why not apply august before senior year begins to a bunch of EA publics because "I want to get my safeties in early, and I can apply to these schools and also do SCEA to Yale". Oh, okay!

Wait, I don’t get it. Why are early rolling schools “not real safeties”?

so simple people. The year 2007 (year that most applicants this year were born) was the largest baby boom in history. So simple.

Anonymous wrote:I know so many high stats kids who are applying to rolling EAs like Pitt and publics like Wisconsin and MN, when they have no intention of going. These are not their real safeties.

They're kids who just always do the most, so why not apply august before senior year begins to a bunch of EA publics because "I want to get my safeties in early, and I can apply to these schools and also do SCEA to Yale". Oh, okay!

My kid did Pitt; Case; Vermont - all merit. Waiting for Wisconsin etc. and deferred from ED at T20 so now you never know. It was likely a smart move.

Anonymous wrote:Also, the games colleges play.

Ivy legacies at our school (with top grades, big donor parents) are often deferred and then accepted RD. They all eventually get in. But when they get deferred, they put in another 20-25 apps out of panic. So 20-25 top schools get an app from a kid that is never going to matriculate. I saw this happen 5 times last year and know at least 5 this year. It's just dumb behavior (by the Ivy).

Not just ivies. Northwestern and Duke began doing this as well.

Also, the games colleges play.

Ivy legacies at our school (with top grades, big donor parents) are often deferred and then accepted RD. They all eventually get in. But when they get deferred, they put in another 20-25 apps out of panic. So 20-25 top schools get an app from a kid that is never going to matriculate. I saw this happen 5 times last year and know at least 5 this year. It's just dumb behavior (by the Ivy).