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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Here's why Michigan can't be a safety (or even a likely) even if you "have the stats." At highly and moderately selective schools, 75-80% of applicants "have the stats." Even if that number is on the low end (75%) for Michigan's OOS pool, and even if Michigan's OOS acceptance rate remains as high as last year's (17%), an OOS kid who "has the stats" is ~77% likely to be rejected by Michigan. (That's oversimplified for any individual case, of course, but it's correct in aggregate.)[/quote]
What’s the source of your 75 to 80 percent number, because I seriously doubt it is correct in the test optional world.  Even if the numbers are half that though, there are still tens of thousand of qualified kids vying for a few thousand spots.[/quote]
Try to find a number lower than that from any AO asked what percentage of her applicant pool is academically qualified to attend her college or university. And if you find one, link it. Good luck.

Or think about the flip-side: If only 40% of kids applying to Michigan are academically qualified, you'd expect, in aggregate, that kids applying to highly and moderately selective schools would be academically qualified for only 40% of the schools to which they've applied. Do you know any kid who doesn't "have the numbers" to apply to six of the ten schools to which he's applied? I don't. I'm sure those kids exist, but they're few and far between. One "flyer" for every four "realistic" schools is much more consistent with my experience.

I strongly suspect that 75-80% figure is correct and that, if you're telling yourself it's lower than that, you're guilty of underestimating the competition.[/quote]

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