I don’t understand how Early Action is helpful in any way. It doesn’t boost students admission chance. It doesn’t help the colleges with yield because kids can sit on acceptances. Smartest kids get accepted first in EA and they apply early action to safeties. Then those kids wait to see if they get accepted someplace else or better.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here's why Michigan can't be a safety (or even a likely) even if you "have the stats." At highly and moderately selective schools, 75-80% of applicants "have the stats." Even if that number is on the low end (75%) for Michigan's OOS pool, and even if Michigan's OOS acceptance rate remains as high as last year's (17%), an OOS kid who "has the stats" is ~77% likely to be rejected by Michigan. (That's oversimplified for any individual case, of course, but it's correct in aggregate.)

What’s the source of your 75 to 80 percent number, because I seriously doubt it is correct in the test optional world. Even if the numbers are half that though, there are still tens of thousand of qualified kids vying for a few thousand spots.

Try to find a number lower than that from any AO asked what percentage of her applicant pool is academically qualified to attend her college or university. And if you find one, link it. Good luck.

Or think about the flip-side: If only 40% of kids applying to Michigan are academically qualified, you'd expect, in aggregate, that kids applying to highly and moderately selective schools would be academically qualified for only 40% of the schools to which they've applied. Do you know any kid who doesn't "have the numbers" to apply to six of the ten schools to which he's applied? I don't. I'm sure those kids exist, but they're few and far between. One "flyer" for every four "realistic" schools is much more consistent with my experience.

I strongly suspect that 75-80% figure is correct and that, if you're telling yourself it's lower than that, you're guilty of underestimating the competition.

I simply asked you for a source, which you still have not provided.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here's why Michigan can't be a safety (or even a likely) even if you "have the stats." At highly and moderately selective schools, 75-80% of applicants "have the stats." Even if that number is on the low end (75%) for Michigan's OOS pool, and even if Michigan's OOS acceptance rate remains as high as last year's (17%), an OOS kid who "has the stats" is ~77% likely to be rejected by Michigan. (That's oversimplified for any individual case, of course, but it's correct in aggregate.)

What’s the source of your 75 to 80 percent number, because I seriously doubt it is correct in the test optional world. Even if the numbers are half that though, there are still tens of thousand of qualified kids vying for a few thousand spots.

Try to find a number lower than that from any AO asked what percentage of her applicant pool is academically qualified to attend her college or university. And if you find one, link it. Good luck.

Or think about the flip-side: If only 40% of kids applying to Michigan are academically qualified, you'd expect, in aggregate, that kids applying to highly and moderately selective schools would be academically qualified for only 40% of the schools to which they've applied. Do you know any kid who doesn't "have the numbers" to apply to six of the ten schools to which he's applied? I don't. I'm sure those kids exist, but they're few and far between. One "flyer" for every four "realistic" schools is much more consistent with my experience.

I strongly suspect that 75-80% figure is correct and that, if you're telling yourself it's lower than that, you're guilty of underestimating the competition.

Anonymous wrote:Here's why Michigan can't be a safety (or even a likely) even if you "have the stats." At highly and moderately selective schools, 75-80% of applicants "have the stats." Even if that number is on the low end (75%) for Michigan's OOS pool, and even if Michigan's OOS acceptance rate remains as high as last year's (17%), an OOS kid who "has the stats" is ~77% likely to be rejected by Michigan. (That's oversimplified for any individual case, of course, but it's correct in aggregate.)

What’s the source of your 75 to 80 percent number, because I seriously doubt it is correct in the test optional world. Even if the numbers are half that though, there are still tens of thousand of qualified kids vying for a few thousand spots.

Here's why Michigan can't be a safety (or even a likely) even if you "have the stats." At highly and moderately selective schools, 75-80% of applicants "have the stats." Even if that number is on the low end (75%) for Michigan's OOS pool, and even if Michigan's OOS acceptance rate remains as high as last year's (17%), an OOS kid who "has the stats" is ~77% likely to be rejected by Michigan. (That's oversimplified for any individual case, of course, but it's correct in aggregate.)

Anonymous wrote:

Unless you are in state for one of the large public flagship, this is a very risky strategy. I would start researching some of the late app schools in this thread if things don’t go as you hope tonight.


This. I wouldn’t consider most flagships safeties OOS unless you’re talking about WVU or Kentucky

Presumably PP’s student is in state for at least one state flagship, right? Based on the post, I’m assuming UMd, which is supposedly releasing EA decisions tonight.

Yes, one is UMD, and maybe I'm being ridiculous, but I'm even fearful that DC won't get accepted to UMD either, even with those stats. We'll find out tonight.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My current senior DC has 7 deferrals. I keep telling him they will likely all be WL or rejections. Every single deferral my older 2 kids had were WL or rejection in RD. Not ONE turned into an acceptance. YMMV

what do you do when this happens?

What are the alternative paths?

I'm getting nervous.
m

My kid is a very high stats (good e.c. not spectacular), so maybe my nervousness is unfounded, but I just feel like it's all a lottery these days.

DC did EA to flagships like Michigan, Chicago, etc. and RD to few elite ones like Stanford. I'm not holding my breath for the elite ones, but I am not even sure about the top publics now.

Am I being ridiculous? First kid to go to college. I went to a no-name state u.

Have him apply to your alma mater and some state directional schools.

my alma mater is a large public out west, and they don't care about legacy, nor would I ever pay OOS for that college.

What is a "state directional schools"?

To a PP, DC did apply to a "safety" according to collegevine or whatever it's called, but I feel like safeties aren't even safeties anymore. Plus, I'm hearing that colleges want to yield protect so some of the "safeties" will deny really high stats students.

sigh.. honestly... it really is like playing the lottery, except there's way more at stake.

OP, safeties have high acceptance rates, like 50+%. My kid applied to 4 safeties because admissions is so unpredictable and so far they are the only acceptances he has in hand.

Yes, safeties are 50%+ acceptance rates, your kid scores and GPA at/Above 75%, affordable to you, somewhere your kid likes and would be happy to attend, and most importantly, somewhere you show demonstrated interest to make them think this is one of your top choices (so they don't yield protect you).

No, that's a "likely," not a "safety." A "safety" is a school that (1) you can afford, (2) they'd be happy to attend, and (3) either (a) they've already been accepted (e.g., all those clever August applicants to Pitt) or (b) they *will* (not "should" or "probably will") be accepted because the school admits by the numbers (rather than "holistically") and the kid has the numbers. Iowa and Iowa State are like that. So is Kansas. Any of those schools would be a terrific safety for a kid who digs Michigan.

one more criterion for whether a school is a safety/likely: it not only accepts most students like you -- it accepts ALL students like you.

My kid had a Class of 2022 friend who applied to a mix of 11 schools, combination of EA, ED, rolling, and RD. "Average smart kid", 3.8/1400, unhooked, majority. The first 10 notifications they received (including Lehigh, St. Mary's, Miami, Purdue, Skidmore) were all rejections. They finally heard from the 11th, Wesleyan, and were accepted and are very happy. And yes, strange to be accepted at Wesleyan but rejected at the others, but it just shows how unpredictable the process can be.

That's not "one more criterion," it's #3.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My current senior DC has 7 deferrals. I keep telling him they will likely all be WL or rejections. Every single deferral my older 2 kids had were WL or rejection in RD. Not ONE turned into an acceptance. YMMV

what do you do when this happens?

What are the alternative paths?

I'm getting nervous.
m

My kid is a very high stats (good e.c. not spectacular), so maybe my nervousness is unfounded, but I just feel like it's all a lottery these days.

DC did EA to flagships like Michigan, Chicago, etc. and RD to few elite ones like Stanford. I'm not holding my breath for the elite ones, but I am not even sure about the top publics now.

Am I being ridiculous? First kid to go to college. I went to a no-name state u.

Have him apply to your alma mater and some state directional schools.

my alma mater is a large public out west, and they don't care about legacy, nor would I ever pay OOS for that college.

What is a "state directional schools"?

To a PP, DC did apply to a "safety" according to collegevine or whatever it's called, but I feel like safeties aren't even safeties anymore. Plus, I'm hearing that colleges want to yield protect so some of the "safeties" will deny really high stats students.

sigh.. honestly... it really is like playing the lottery, except there's way more at stake.

OP, safeties have high acceptance rates, like 50+%. My kid applied to 4 safeties because admissions is so unpredictable and so far they are the only acceptances he has in hand.

Yes, safeties are 50%+ acceptance rates, your kid scores and GPA at/Above 75%, affordable to you, somewhere your kid likes and would be happy to attend, and most importantly, somewhere you show demonstrated interest to make them think this is one of your top choices (so they don't yield protect you).

No, that's a "likely," not a "safety." A "safety" is a school that (1) you can afford, (2) they'd be happy to attend, and (3) either (a) they've already been accepted (e.g., all those clever August applicants to Pitt) or (b) they *will* (not "should" or "probably will") be accepted because the school admits by the numbers (rather than "holistically") and the kid has the numbers. Iowa and Iowa State are like that. So is Kansas. Any of those schools would be a terrific safety for a kid who digs Michigan.

one more criterion for whether a school is a safety/likely: it not only accepts most students like you -- it accepts ALL students like you.

My kid had a Class of 2022 friend who applied to a mix of 11 schools, combination of EA, ED, rolling, and RD. "Average smart kid", 3.8/1400, unhooked, majority. The first 10 notifications they received (including Lehigh, St. Mary's, Miami, Purdue, Skidmore) were all rejections. They finally heard from the 11th, Wesleyan, and were accepted and are very happy. And yes, strange to be accepted at Wesleyan but rejected at the others, but it just shows how unpredictable the process can be.

I guess this is why I am seeing so many more 'gap years'. I rarely saw those before.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My current senior DC has 7 deferrals. I keep telling him they will likely all be WL or rejections. Every single deferral my older 2 kids had were WL or rejection in RD. Not ONE turned into an acceptance. YMMV

what do you do when this happens?

What are the alternative paths?

I'm getting nervous.
m

My kid is a very high stats (good e.c. not spectacular), so maybe my nervousness is unfounded, but I just feel like it's all a lottery these days.

DC did EA to flagships like Michigan, Chicago, etc. and RD to few elite ones like Stanford. I'm not holding my breath for the elite ones, but I am not even sure about the top publics now.

Am I being ridiculous? First kid to go to college. I went to a no-name state u.

Have him apply to your alma mater and some state directional schools.

my alma mater is a large public out west, and they don't care about legacy, nor would I ever pay OOS for that college.

What is a "state directional schools"?

To a PP, DC did apply to a "safety" according to collegevine or whatever it's called, but I feel like safeties aren't even safeties anymore. Plus, I'm hearing that colleges want to yield protect so some of the "safeties" will deny really high stats students.

sigh.. honestly... it really is like playing the lottery, except there's way more at stake.

OP, safeties have high acceptance rates, like 50+%. My kid applied to 4 safeties because admissions is so unpredictable and so far they are the only acceptances he has in hand.

Yes, safeties are 50%+ acceptance rates, your kid scores and GPA at/Above 75%, affordable to you, somewhere your kid likes and would be happy to attend, and most importantly, somewhere you show demonstrated interest to make them think this is one of your top choices (so they don't yield protect you).

No, that's a "likely," not a "safety." A "safety" is a school that (1) you can afford, (2) they'd be happy to attend, and (3) either (a) they've already been accepted (e.g., all those clever August applicants to Pitt) or (b) they *will* (not "should" or "probably will") be accepted because the school admits by the numbers (rather than "holistically") and the kid has the numbers. Iowa and Iowa State are like that. So is Kansas. Any of those schools would be a terrific safety for a kid who digs Michigan.

Unless you are in state for one of the large public flagship, this is a very risky strategy. I would start researching some of the late app schools in this thread if things don’t go as you hope tonight.


This. I wouldn’t consider most flagships safeties OOS unless you’re talking about WVU or Kentucky

Presumably PP’s student is in state for at least one state flagship, right? Based on the post, I’m assuming UMd, which is supposedly releasing EA decisions tonight.

We live in Indiana, so I understand things can be much, much different in the DC area. (I came for the political forums and then ended up staying, and getting freaked out by the college forum!)

My kids had fairly high stats and weren't particularly set on top 20 schools, so they haven't been particularly stressful. But more on point with this discussion has been the experience of some of our friends with kids with more marginal academic backgrounds. They've been getting into schools like Ball State, Indiana State, and University of Evansville. (One of them is still waiting to hear from IU and Purdue -- those are more of a stretch for these kids.)

Ball State isn't a high flying institution, but it's a solid education. I wonder if the people worried about safeties are applying to schools like that -- maybe the other MAC schools like Miami or Toledo, etc. Or whatever is comparable closer to D.C.

OP, don't lose hope yet. One thing your DC can do is to continue to express interest in the EA schools from which they were deferred -- campus visit if possible, virtual campus visit, sign up for emails (and actually open them and click on links!), follow school on social media, reach out to regional admissions officer for your region with an email about how excited DC is about school for xyz reasons, send any new accomplishments. It can't hurt, and for any schools engaging in yield protection, it helps demonstrate that your kid is truly interested.

If the "targets" were schools like Michigan, then yes definitely follow the advice above and look at schools for which the application deadline hasn't passed yet.

Went through this one year ago with our then-senior. Even the in-state safety schools are a crap shoot now. There are no guarantees. Our kid only applied to a few colleges in VA ( you could count them on one hand, that few). Got into a competitive VA college, and is happy there. Good student, APs, solid scores, but she didn't get into all of them. You kid just needs one that works. Just one.

I have been thinking about this as well. My oldest kid is a high stats kid with great EC's at a Big 3. Rejected early from an Ivy, thankfully into one safety with "merit $" and into one one target/safety.

The rest of my senior kid's applications are all reaches. I think my kid will end up at the target safety - a school thankfully they love and are excited to attend.

Here is the issue
I have a junior applying next year. Great kid - medium/high stats, medium extracurriculars. I'm petrified about this kid finding safeties.. A friend of my senior kid has similar stats to our junior and also was deferred or rejected everywhere early like OP. I am hearing safeties are no longer safeties. I think the college advising offices are shocked by what is happening and playing catch up. When the safeties are also a lottery, it's hard to make good application decisions.

For the first time ever I have heard of good qualified kids getting shut out. Its worrisome.