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Reply to "buying now or waiting another year?"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Ughh, people are taking about "worst time to buy since 2007" and "bubble bursting" in the coming weeks.  To me it sounds like they're tacitly trying to suggest a crash...or maybe they're just saying it to stoke fears and sound smart--either way it seems a bit deceiving.  They could be right, but I think it's very unlikely.

If you state the beginning of a downturn, then sure that's possible.  I could certainly see home prices down 1-3% in 2023 compared to now.  Or they could be up by that much.  Who knows?

[b]Please show me this "data" I'm conveniently overlooking talking about all these new SFHs[/b][b] or even townhomes in areas people always talk about wanting to move to on DCUM-- ie NW DC and the close in parts of Arlington, Alexandria, TP, SS, Chevy Chase, Bethesda?  Because there's almost no vacant land in those areas.

And for the record I am not buying or selling right now.[/quote]

Sure. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts[/quote]

Your local Mando here.

So per my post I asked about data for the perennially popular parts of the DMV.  Your link describes not that.  It speaks to a national trend and, well, there's still a lot of space to build on in this country...and so this isn't really applicable to our market.

Also, you conveniently don't mention the last part of your link:

"At the same time, building permits which are a benchmark for future home construction fell 1.9% and several indicators point to a slowdown in the housing market in the coming months: mortgage rates are back to 2019 levels; commodity prices remain elevated due to Russian invasion of Ukraine; and the NAHB homebuilder confidence dropped to a 6-month low in March."

...which would suggest that all these new SFHs (only 2/3 of the overall number in what your article counts btw) aren't exactly built on mountains of sunshine and rainbows...

Thing is, I don't totally disagree with you.  I think there's a real chance that housing prices could be down 1-3% by next year.  I also think they could just as easily be up by that much.  Or somewhere in between.  I'm just less "certain" than you.

And FWIW I've kept my helmet on this whole time.[/quote]

I disagree with your conclusions, but I really don’t think I could love the Mando poster more. Love it. [/quote]

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