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Anonymous wrote:If you buy in the next couple of months you will be being buying at the worst possible point since 2007. If you are comfortable with that, that’s up to you, but I would ask what is so urgent that you can’t wait 6 or 12 months? The people who are telling you to buy now, that it will be fine, are realtors who have a personal financial stake in keeping the inflated market going for as long as possible. These are salespeople. Talk to a market forecaster who has nothing to gain from you losing money on a purchase. Read about what’s going on in the larger market, what the rising interest rates will do to prices, what the Fed is doing and predicting. Don’t listen to salespeople.

Incidentally, the people who said don’t buy last year were also right. People who bought in 2021 will take a financial beating too during the downturn. Just not as bad a beating as the people buying now. In a few weeks it’s expected their houses will be worth whatever it’s valuation in 2019 was. They didn’t buy at the absolute peak (which was probably last week) but they still paid a premium they won’t be able to recover anytime soon. Talk to someone in your real life who understands market behavior. Don’t take anonymous advice from a bunch of realtors on the internet.

This PP is trying really hard to sound smart, but here's the hard truth.

1) Housing supply has grown much more slowly since 2007, at the same time millennials have entered their family formation phase and are looking to move to SFHs; they are actually being joined by Generation Z who will likely look to have larger homes sooner because of WFH and the value of outdoor space for this COVID generation (its never going away right).

2) Low rates have definitely made more people capable of paying more for homes, but there are plenty of families being helped by boomer parents, and of course institutions buying more and more SFH. https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/02/business/family-homes-wall-street/index.html Rates have to get really really high to beat out the rental income and with inflation, rents are just going up and up.

3) Rising rates may soften prices of stall them, definitely seems possible, but you as a buyer with a mortage, will likely end up paying MORE over the lifetime of your loan with higher interest payments. MAYBE you can refinance in a decade if we see "historically low" interest rates again. But in the near term, your monthly payment will likely be much higher if you delay further and buy within the next decade.

One caveat, if WFH really really becomes a thing, and you can work from anywhere, that could really hurt major metro markets -- make no mistake, people move to DC for access to Congress and jobs. So if you believe we are in new digital remote only frontier, then you can settle down in Boise and call it a day.

My recommendation, since you have been looking for TWO FING years is temper your expectations, get yourself into some kind of property that you can comfortably afford even with a downshift in your career, and become somewhat coupled to the housing market rather then buffeted by the waves of rising prices and rents as a renter. Basically, get a house with a mortgage as a good old fashioned inflation hedge you can live in.

This is the way.

Just buy when you a) think there's a good chance you'll be in the area for at least 5 years, b) can put 20% down, c) find a house you like that meets your needs. If that's not you, do not buy now ... or at any time until you hit a/b/c.

The doomsayers who say the housing market will crash in "weeks" are FOS. Could it happen? Sure, if WW3 truly starts. Otherwise, no way an abrupt change happens so fast.

Most likely housing prices will go flat or appreciation will slow or prices will slightly decrease. Why? Because because there is no likely singular event that can make any change "happen fast."

No matter how self-assured somebody sounds on here, and intuitively it would make sense for the market to start to at least see slower rates of appreciation...part of the hurdle for that is that inventory remains low compared to demand and the cost of labor and building materials and land have never been higher. People can have all the theories they want, but until inventory drastically increases or the cost to build goes way down...it's pretty challenging to imagine a scenario that causes a sudden down-turn in prices.

Okay, Mandorian, no one has said crash. People, including the Fed, are saying there will be a downturn *beginning* in the next few weeks. Beginning. Not crash. Also, you seem to have conveniently overlooked the data showing that new building starts are at their highest levels since 2006. So new building is surging.

So in 1 year they have made up for a deficit 14 years in the making? Even with supply chain issues?

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-underbuilding-housing-over-the-past-decade-2020-9

New starts are at the highest level since 2006, so I guess the industry is finding a way around supply issues? In truth, because existing house prices are so high, new builds can charge a surcharge for supplies and still compete just fine. Supply is responding to demand, as you would expect when people are willing to pay for it. Supply is expected to increases in existing homes as well, as millions of prior posts have described in detail. A market as out of balance as this one has been will find a way to correct.