Reply to "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"

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Reply to ""Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months""

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]delta is only 50% more transmissible than the variant circulating last year when vaccination rates were low and our school was back at around 2/3 the total student body, with normal class sizes. There were 2 cases and zero spread in school afaik.  I don’t think this model is correct. [/quote]

I don’t think you understand 50% more means.

What schools had normal class sizes during the 2020-3021 school year?[/quote]

plenty of schools had normal class sizes.

this models does not correspond to [b]what we know about transmission in school (including Delta).[/b] [/quote]

NP. What DO you "know about transmission in school (including Delta)"?

How do you "know" it when Delta has come along and ramped up during the summer when kids are not in school? And even if some school systems have been in session in August already --  do you not understand, or just refuse to understand, that there has not been enough time for anyone to do any kind of scientifically valid study that would tell us yet about Delta in school settings in any useful way?

You are just blathering things to sound "official" as if you "know" something  and there is no real, valid data.

Oh, and if you plan to come back and shout, "I'm talking about transmisison in schools in other countries where they ARE in school in summer!" blah blah blah....do you really think we care? Get valid stats about transmission here. Oh, right. You can't. [/quote]

Well, you sound much more interested in a panic-driven closure just because it “might” be riskier. So I’m wondering what your rationale is to believe that your fear should be what decides to keep schools open, as opposed to the default being open schools? What is your guiding principle and metrics for when we shut down essential components of society like schools?

But moving on from that probably useless effort to get you to think about how you assess risk … research shows that Delta in fact did not transmit rapidly in UK schools open during their Delta wave: https://fortune.com/2021/08/12/as-delta-infections-spiked-covid-cases-in-schools-actually-fell-a-lesson-from-england/

This accorda with prior research indicating that schools do not appear to be high transmission settings.

Eg the CDC says “ Although outbreaks in schools can occur, multiple studies have shown that transmission within school settings is typically lower than – or at least similar to – levels of community transmission, when prevention strategies are in place in schools.”

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/transmission_k_12_schools.html#schools-cov2-transmission

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