Anonymous
08/15/2021 14:06
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:There's been 310 hospitalizations of kids ages 0 to 9 since February 2020 (since pandemic started) in the whole state of Virginia.
It's going to be ok.
36,403 cases (0-9)
310 hospitalizations (0-9)
2 deaths (0-9)
Thus, death rate for ages 0-9 was 0.005%. Or roughly 1 in 18,000
ok but assuming these numbers are correct..that means hospitalization rate was .9%. That is almost 1 out of every hundred ending up in the hospital.
0.09%. Not 0.9%. Not 1/100.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 13:50
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:There's been 310 hospitalizations of kids ages 0 to 9 since February 2020 (since pandemic started) in the whole state of Virginia.
It's going to be ok.
36,403 cases (0-9)
310 hospitalizations (0-9)
2 deaths (0-9)
Thus, death rate for ages 0-9 was 0.005%. Or roughly 1 in 18,000
ok but assuming these numbers are correct..that means hospitalization rate was .9%. That is almost 1 out of every hundred ending up in the hospital.
Need to step back and consider that there are over 1M in the VA population of 0-9, with only 3.7% of that population even counted in the cases, then only .9% of that 3.7% hospitalized, and a much, much smaller number in the death rate (.000002%).
Anonymous
08/15/2021 13:28
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:There's been 310 hospitalizations of kids ages 0 to 9 since February 2020 (since pandemic started) in the whole state of Virginia.
It's going to be ok.
36,403 cases (0-9)
310 hospitalizations (0-9)
2 deaths (0-9)
Thus, death rate for ages 0-9 was 0.005%. Or roughly 1 in 18,000
ok but assuming these numbers are correct..that means hospitalization rate was .9%. That is almost 1 out of every hundred ending up in the hospital.
hence the very high anxiety. Even a small elementary school has several hundred students. Knowing a few will end up hospitalized from any given school are terrible odds and explains all the fear.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 13:23
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:There's been 310 hospitalizations of kids ages 0 to 9 since February 2020 (since pandemic started) in the whole state of Virginia.
It's going to be ok.
36,403 cases (0-9)
310 hospitalizations (0-9)
2 deaths (0-9)
Thus, death rate for ages 0-9 was 0.005%. Or roughly 1 in 18,000
ok but assuming these numbers are correct..that means hospitalization rate was .9%. That is almost 1 out of every hundred ending up in the hospital.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 13:13
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I honestly don’t care if my kid gets Covid. They’ll be fine. I actually expect them to. They need to be in school.
What if they get something else and there is no hospital capacity available to help them?
What if the infect a lot of other people with this illness?
DP. +1 to the bold.
Scientists right now are concerned about the potential even for vaccinated adults/teens to get infected with Delta, have few or no symptoms, but also infect others with Delta who are unvaccinated/cannot be vaccinated and who will get very ill.
Clearly children who are too young to be vaccinated are potential carriers and spreaders, even if-- like this oh so optimistic parent above believes--they themselves end up fine.
I'm amazed at the adults who shrug and say "My kid will be fine, I expect my kid to get it" who have ZERO consideration of the larger health implications for their family members and their community as a whole.
"MY child will be fine." Lovely. Risk your own kid's health. Your prerogative. But it doesn't begin and end with your kid. If your kid gives the virus to you, a vaccinated adult, and you too are OK but pass it on--and it goes on and on -- that's how we never get past this. But posters like that PP won't know, and would not care if they did know, if their kid's infection ended up, several transmissions down the line, killing someone they'll never know about. Just does not matter to them. Their ignorance of public health is staggering and their lack of concern for those they won't ever meet is appalling. They don't want to see that they live in a world larger than their families.
Until there are also restrictions on adult activities, I will not support restrictions on schools.
Yes, this line of argument that the only policy level sacrifice we should make is school, and we're evil if we don't, is kind of horrible.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 13:04
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
There's been 310 hospitalizations of kids ages 0 to 9 since February 2020 (since pandemic started) in the whole state of Virginia.
It's going to be ok.
36,403 cases (0-9)
310 hospitalizations (0-9)
2 deaths (0-9)
Thus, death rate for ages 0-9 was 0.005%. Or roughly 1 in 18,000
It's going to be ok.
36,403 cases (0-9)
310 hospitalizations (0-9)
2 deaths (0-9)
Thus, death rate for ages 0-9 was 0.005%. Or roughly 1 in 18,000
Anonymous
08/15/2021 12:33
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:
We are all concerned with public health, with our communities, and with our children. This is a Fairfax County thread. That's who is posting here.
Wrong. You are in Schools and Education General Discussion.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 12:29
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I honestly don’t care if my kid gets Covid. They’ll be fine. I actually expect them to. They need to be in school.
What if they get something else and there is no hospital capacity available to help them?
What if the infect a lot of other people with this illness?
DP. +1 to the bold.
Scientists right now are concerned about the potential even for vaccinated adults/teens to get infected with Delta, have few or no symptoms, but also infect others with Delta who are unvaccinated/cannot be vaccinated and who will get very ill.
Clearly children who are too young to be vaccinated are potential carriers and spreaders, even if-- like this oh so optimistic parent above believes--they themselves end up fine.
I'm amazed at the adults who shrug and say "My kid will be fine, I expect my kid to get it" who have ZERO consideration of the larger health implications for their family members and their community as a whole.
"MY child will be fine." Lovely. Risk your own kid's health. Your prerogative. But it doesn't begin and end with your kid. If your kid gives the virus to you, a vaccinated adult, and you too are OK but pass it on--and it goes on and on -- that's how we never get past this. But posters like that PP won't know, and would not care if they did know, if their kid's infection ended up, several transmissions down the line, killing someone they'll never know about. Just does not matter to them. Their ignorance of public health is staggering and their lack of concern for those they won't ever meet is appalling. They don't want to see that they live in a world larger than their families.
Until there are also restrictions on adult activities, I will not support restrictions on schools.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 12:17
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
I honestly don’t care if my kid gets Covid. They’ll be fine. I actually expect them to. They need to be in school.
I agree kids need to be in school. The risk is minimal. The benefits of being in school are obviously huge.
But nobody knows if anybody, no matter their age, is guaranteed to be fine. About one if 50 children who get covid will have symptoms for 8 weeks or longer.
Let's be accurate.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 12:13
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I honestly don’t care if my kid gets Covid. They’ll be fine. I actually expect them to. They need to be in school.
What if they get something else and there is no hospital capacity available to help them?
What if the infect a lot of other people with this illness?
DP. +1 to the bold.
Scientists right now are concerned about the potential even for vaccinated adults/teens to get infected with Delta, have few or no symptoms, but also infect others with Delta who are unvaccinated/cannot be vaccinated and who will get very ill.
Clearly children who are too young to be vaccinated are potential carriers and spreaders, even if-- like this oh so optimistic parent above believes--they themselves end up fine.
I'm amazed at the adults who shrug and say "My kid will be fine, I expect my kid to get it" who have ZERO consideration of the larger health implications for their family members and their community as a whole.
"MY child will be fine." Lovely. Risk your own kid's health. Your prerogative. But it doesn't begin and end with your kid. If your kid gives the virus to you, a vaccinated adult, and you too are OK but pass it on--and it goes on and on -- that's how we never get past this. But posters like that PP won't know, and would not care if they did know, if their kid's infection ended up, several transmissions down the line, killing someone they'll never know about. Just does not matter to them. Their ignorance of public health is staggering and their lack of concern for those they won't ever meet is appalling. They don't want to see that they live in a world larger than their families.
Kids don't transmit covid very much, not even delta. Vaxxed adults with breakthrough cases don't transmit covid very much, not even delta.
We are all concerned with public health, with our communities, and with our children. This is a Fairfax County thread. That's who is posting here.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 12:13
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I honestly don’t care if my kid gets Covid. They’ll be fine. I actually expect them to. They need to be in school.
What if they get something else and there is no hospital capacity available to help them?
What if the infect a lot of other people with this illness?
DP. +1 to the bold.
Scientists right now are concerned about the potential even for vaccinated adults/teens to get infected with Delta, have few or no symptoms, but also infect others with Delta who are unvaccinated/cannot be vaccinated and who will get very ill.
Clearly children who are too young to be vaccinated are potential carriers and spreaders, even if-- like this oh so optimistic parent above believes--they themselves end up fine.
I'm amazed at the adults who shrug and say "My kid will be fine, I expect my kid to get it" who have ZERO consideration of the larger health implications for their family members and their community as a whole.
"MY child will be fine." Lovely. Risk your own kid's health. Your prerogative. But it doesn't begin and end with your kid. If your kid gives the virus to you, a vaccinated adult, and you too are OK but pass it on--and it goes on and on -- that's how we never get past this. But posters like that PP won't know, and would not care if they did know, if their kid's infection ended up, several transmissions down the line, killing someone they'll never know about. Just does not matter to them. Their ignorance of public health is staggering and their lack of concern for those they won't ever meet is appalling. They don't want to see that they live in a world larger than their families.
let me spell it out for you: I give not one sh*t about unvaccinated adults. Certainly not sacrificing my kid for them.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 12:12
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Without real data, this is all conjecture.
How many kids in ICU? What percentage were visiting from out of town or migrants? Or are we talking about local preschoolers catching it at school? Do they have delta? What has the health department learned from contract tracing?
I live in MA, which has a high vaccination rate. So far, pediatric hospitalizations aren’t spiking here.
Anonymous
08/15/2021 12:11
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:delta is only 50% more transmissible than the variant circulating last year when vaccination rates were low and our school was back at around 2/3 the total student body, with normal class sizes. There were 2 cases and zero spread in school afaik. I don’t think this model is correct.
I don’t think you understand 50% more means.
What schools had normal class sizes during the 2020-3021 school year?
plenty of schools had normal class sizes.
this models does not correspond to what we know about transmission in school (including Delta).
NP. What DO you "know about transmission in school (including Delta)"?
How do you "know" it when Delta has come along and ramped up during the summer when kids are not in school? And even if some school systems have been in session in August already -- do you not understand, or just refuse to understand, that there has not been enough time for anyone to do any kind of scientifically valid study that would tell us yet about Delta in school settings in any useful way?
You are just blathering things to sound "official" as if you "know" something and there is no real, valid data.
Oh, and if you plan to come back and shout, "I'm talking about transmisison in schools in other countries where they ARE in school in summer!" blah blah blah....do you really think we care? Get valid stats about transmission here. Oh, right. You can't.
Well, you sound much more interested in a panic-driven closure just because it “might” be riskier. So I’m wondering what your rationale is to believe that your fear should be what decides to keep schools open, as opposed to the default being open schools? What is your guiding principle and metrics for when we shut down essential components of society like schools?
But moving on from that probably useless effort to get you to think about how you assess risk … research shows that Delta in fact did not transmit rapidly in UK schools open during their Delta wave: https://fortune.com/2021/08/12/as-delta-infections-spiked-covid-cases-in-schools-actually-fell-a-lesson-from-england/
This accorda with prior research indicating that schools do not appear to be high transmission settings.
Eg the CDC says “ Although outbreaks in schools can occur, multiple studies have shown that transmission within school settings is typically lower than – or at least similar to – levels of community transmission, when prevention strategies are in place in schools.”
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/transmission_k_12_schools.html#schools-cov2-transmission
Anonymous
08/15/2021 12:06
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Without real data, this is all conjecture.
How many kids in ICU? What percentage were visiting from out of town or migrants? Or are we talking about local preschoolers catching it at school? Do they have delta? What has the health department learned from contract tracing?
How many kids in ICU? What percentage were visiting from out of town or migrants? Or are we talking about local preschoolers catching it at school? Do they have delta? What has the health department learned from contract tracing?
Anonymous
08/15/2021 12:05
Subject: "Without mitigation, they predict that 80% of elementary students will be infected within 2 months"
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I honestly don’t care if my kid gets Covid. They’ll be fine. I actually expect them to. They need to be in school.
What if they get something else and there is no hospital capacity available to help them?
What if the infect a lot of other people with this illness?
DP. +1 to the bold.
Scientists right now are concerned about the potential even for vaccinated adults/teens to get infected with Delta, have few or no symptoms, but also infect others with Delta who are unvaccinated/cannot be vaccinated and who will get very ill.
Clearly children who are too young to be vaccinated are potential carriers and spreaders, even if-- like this oh so optimistic parent above believes--they themselves end up fine.
I'm amazed at the adults who shrug and say "My kid will be fine, I expect my kid to get it" who have ZERO consideration of the larger health implications for their family members and their community as a whole.
"MY child will be fine." Lovely. Risk your own kid's health. Your prerogative. But it doesn't begin and end with your kid. If your kid gives the virus to you, a vaccinated adult, and you too are OK but pass it on--and it goes on and on -- that's how we never get past this. But posters like that PP won't know, and would not care if they did know, if their kid's infection ended up, several transmissions down the line, killing someone they'll never know about. Just does not matter to them. Their ignorance of public health is staggering and their lack of concern for those they won't ever meet is appalling. They don't want to see that they live in a world larger than their families.