Reply to How did Herndon/Westfield HS go from top to bottom?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]NP. 
But it looks likely the proximity standard would yield the following

Hutchison :
South Herndon/Clearview ES
McNair 
Coates
Hutchison 
~550 per class size ~ 65 percent FARMS

South Lakes :
Stays the same but gains West Floris 
~650 kids per class size ~ 30 percent FARMS

Herndon : 
Aldrin 
Armstrong 
Dranesville 
North Clearview/Herndon
Great Falls 
Forestville 
~550 kids per class size ~20 percent FARMS

Do note however that class sizes reflect entering cohorts. There will be some level of attrition as kids dropout especially FARM kids.

In addition if the additional housing projects in Reston do come to fruition it is likely that South Lakes will give up Dogwood to Hutchison/Herndon in due time.

Westfield will in turn probably take in Brookfield from Chantilly and Bull Run from Centreville. Then McLean and Marshall will give up western lands to Langley relinquished by the removal of Great Falls/Forestville. taking into account the Madison/Oakton additions, and with that the Western high school overcrowding situation is solved!!!!

For those complaining that Oak Hill kids are scared of FARM kids the resulting boundaries still have a good chunk of FARM kids in them each. [/quote]. This scenario assumes that the parents in GF would actually send their children to Herndon.

It’s much more likely that the FARMs rate would e higher at Herndon  because many zoned Great Falls children simply wouldn’t attend.

[/quote]

True but to what extent? A lot of Great Falls residents are stretching their bucks thin on housing to ensure their kids go to Langley, will they truly shell out their leftover savings after boundary change? There is a big difference when those parents complain with Herndon HS of ~45 percent FARMS as of current vs ~20 percent after the proximity formula. From a standpoint of getting the Great Falls parents out of Langley this is far better than those advocating a "parity" model. [/quote]

If I am living in the Western part of Great Falls and it’s a financial stretch but I do it for Langley

And the school board rezones me for Herndon

And my kids are young enough not to be eligible for grandfathering

Then I sell and get a less expensive house in one of those lovely tree-lined streets in Herndon (hopefully near the rec center)

While my house may have lost value, it’s still relatively high because it’s in Great Falls.

I bank the difference and send my child to Herndon or pay for private school with the savings if I just really insist my child won’t be a Hornet.

The person who bought my house knows that the school zone has changed, and they saved some cash because of it.  While Langley is a nice-to-have, they bought in GF for the small town feel, the beauty of the community, the lot size, etc.  They take their savings and do what a significant minority of Great Falls already does and send their child to private.  (Of course, they may not have needed that and just bank the cash or take an extra vacation)

They may also just send their child to HHS, but that is not as likely—though still a decent chance.

Rinse and repeat with those having school age kids and again those who are presumably on the financial brink because they want their children in Langley.

This is all conjecture of course but with some basis in history and how people act.[/quote]

That’s exactly what would happen.

And the complaint about Great Falls would be how many people opt out of FCPS whereas now it’s about which FCPS school they attend.[/quote]

I honestly don't think it would be that bad per say. The best school after Langley, McLean, still has a bunch of well to do people going there when they have a 10% FARMS rate. Would a 20% FARMS rate truly kill Herndon HS that much for Great Falls parents for them to opt out? Additionally, the area the new high school is built is Tholen's territory, period. If Elaine Tholen or a clone remains the school board for Dranesville it is not hard to see her surgically remove what few upscale townhouses/single family homes going to Hutchison and send them to Herndon HS and get the apartment kids remaining in Herndon HS out into Hutchison, thereby brining Herndon HS to 10% FARMS even if the resulting map becomes hideous. Just as McNair/Coates parents see the writing on the wall and fear the creation of Hutchison HS, likewise Great Falls can see the writing is on the wall, that sooner or later they will be sent down to Herndon HS. Why not do it on their own conditions?[/quote]

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