Anonymous wrote:Then I sell and get a less expensive house in one of those lovely tree-lined streets in Herndon (hopefully near the rec center)

While my house may have lost value, it’s still relatively high because it’s in Great Falls.

I bank the difference and send my child to Herndon or pay for private school with the savings if I just really insist my child won’t be a Hornet.

The person who bought my house knows that the school zone has changed, and they saved some cash because of it.

This is flawed logic. The second a new redistricting map starts circulating, even before it's official, houses moved from Langley to Herndon lose 25% of their value. Instantly. Don't believe me? Look at the difference in home prices along Fairfax County Parkway that are zoned for Forestville vs. Armstrong - consistently 20-25% less in Armstrong . Here are two actual examples that sold recently:

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Herndon/12104-Courtney-Ct-20170/home/9121088 - zoned for Amrstrong - sold for $800k = $188 per square foot
https://www.redfin.com/VA/Herndon/12111-Snow-Shoe-Ct-20170/home/9077314 - zoned for Forestville - sold for $915k =- $287 per square foot

Forestville sells for 53% more than Armstrong. Yeah, the Forestville house has one more b edroom and a slightly lager lot, but still. 53% more. These homes are 1,850 feet apart. That's the difference between a 9/10 and a 2/10 school district.

If you own one of those houses and you're lucky, you're under 75% loan-to-value on your mortgage and not underwater. But you would have to have put down a big down payment and paid your mortgage for many years for that to be the case. If not, you're underwater. Can't sell your house and make a profit at all, which means no downpayment even for that "less expensive" house down in Herndon (which probably got a little more expensive because Herndon might now be a 4 instead of a 2.

So you're stuck. Cant' sell, can't move, and certainly can't afford private school because you stretched to be able to put your kid into a great school.

And people wonder why Great Falls parents fight this socioeconomic boundary nonsense.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NP.
But it looks likely the proximity standard would yield the following

Hutchison :
South Herndon/Clearview ES
McNair
Coates
Hutchison
~550 per class size ~ 65 percent FARMS

South Lakes :
Stays the same but gains West Floris
~650 kids per class size ~ 30 percent FARMS

Herndon :
Aldrin
Armstrong
Dranesville
North Clearview/Herndon
Great Falls
Forestville
~550 kids per class size ~20 percent FARMS

Do note however that class sizes reflect entering cohorts. There will be some level of attrition as kids dropout especially FARM kids.

In addition if the additional housing projects in Reston do come to fruition it is likely that South Lakes will give up Dogwood to Hutchison/Herndon in due time.

Westfield will in turn probably take in Brookfield from Chantilly and Bull Run from Centreville. Then McLean and Marshall will give up western lands to Langley relinquished by the removal of Great Falls/Forestville. taking into account the Madison/Oakton additions, and with that the Western high school overcrowding situation is solved!!!!

For those complaining that Oak Hill kids are scared of FARM kids the resulting boundaries still have a good chunk of FARM kids in them each.

. This scenario assumes that the parents in GF would actually send their children to Herndon.

It’s much more likely that the FARMs rate would e higher at Herndon because many zoned Great Falls children simply wouldn’t attend.

True but to what extent? A lot of Great Falls residents are stretching their bucks thin on housing to ensure their kids go to Langley, will they truly shell out their leftover savings after boundary change? There is a big difference when those parents complain with Herndon HS of ~45 percent FARMS as of current vs ~20 percent after the proximity formula. From a standpoint of getting the Great Falls parents out of Langley this is far better than those advocating a "parity" model.

If I am living in the Western part of Great Falls and it’s a financial stretch but I do it for Langley

And the school board rezones me for Herndon

And my kids are young enough not to be eligible for grandfathering

Then I sell and get a less expensive house in one of those lovely tree-lined streets in Herndon (hopefully near the rec center)

While my house may have lost value, it’s still relatively high because it’s in Great Falls.

I bank the difference and send my child to Herndon or pay for private school with the savings if I just really insist my child won’t be a Hornet.

The person who bought my house knows that the school zone has changed, and they saved some cash because of it. While Langley is a nice-to-have, they bought in GF for the small town feel, the beauty of the community, the lot size, etc. They take their savings and do what a significant minority of Great Falls already does and send their child to private. (Of course, they may not have needed that and just bank the cash or take an extra vacation)

They may also just send their child to HHS, but that is not as likely—though still a decent chance.

Rinse and repeat with those having school age kids and again those who are presumably on the financial brink because they want their children in Langley.

This is all conjecture of course but with some basis in history and how people act.

That’s exactly what would happen.

And the complaint about Great Falls would be how many people opt out of FCPS whereas now it’s about which FCPS school they attend.

I honestly don't think it would be that bad per say. The best school after Langley, McLean, still has a bunch of well to do people going there when they have a 10% FARMS rate. Would a 20% FARMS rate truly kill Herndon HS that much for Great Falls parents for them to opt out? Additionally, the area the new high school is built is Tholen's territory, period. If Elaine Tholen or a clone remains the school board for Dranesville it is not hard to see her surgically remove what few upscale townhouses/single family homes going to Hutchison and send them to Herndon HS and get the apartment kids remaining in Herndon HS out into Hutchison, thereby brining Herndon HS to 10% FARMS even if the resulting map becomes hideous. Just as McNair/Coates parents see the writing on the wall and fear the creation of Hutchison HS, likewise Great Falls can see the writing is on the wall, that sooner or later they will be sent down to Herndon HS. Why not do it on their own conditions?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NP.
But it looks likely the proximity standard would yield the following

Hutchison :
South Herndon/Clearview ES
McNair
Coates
Hutchison
~550 per class size ~ 65 percent FARMS

South Lakes :
Stays the same but gains West Floris
~650 kids per class size ~ 30 percent FARMS

Herndon :
Aldrin
Armstrong
Dranesville
North Clearview/Herndon
Great Falls
Forestville
~550 kids per class size ~20 percent FARMS

Do note however that class sizes reflect entering cohorts. There will be some level of attrition as kids dropout especially FARM kids.

In addition if the additional housing projects in Reston do come to fruition it is likely that South Lakes will give up Dogwood to Hutchison/Herndon in due time.

Westfield will in turn probably take in Brookfield from Chantilly and Bull Run from Centreville. Then McLean and Marshall will give up western lands to Langley relinquished by the removal of Great Falls/Forestville. taking into account the Madison/Oakton additions, and with that the Western high school overcrowding situation is solved!!!!

For those complaining that Oak Hill kids are scared of FARM kids the resulting boundaries still have a good chunk of FARM kids in them each.

. This scenario assumes that the parents in GF would actually send their children to Herndon.

It’s much more likely that the FARMs rate would e higher at Herndon because many zoned Great Falls children simply wouldn’t attend.

True but to what extent? A lot of Great Falls residents are stretching their bucks thin on housing to ensure their kids go to Langley, will they truly shell out their leftover savings after boundary change? There is a big difference when those parents complain with Herndon HS of ~45 percent FARMS as of current vs ~20 percent after the proximity formula. From a standpoint of getting the Great Falls parents out of Langley this is far better than those advocating a "parity" model.

If I am living in the Western part of Great Falls and it’s a financial stretch but I do it for Langley

And the school board rezones me for Herndon

And my kids are young enough not to be eligible for grandfathering

Then I sell and get a less expensive house in one of those lovely tree-lined streets in Herndon (hopefully near the rec center)

While my house may have lost value, it’s still relatively high because it’s in Great Falls.

I bank the difference and send my child to Herndon or pay for private school with the savings if I just really insist my child won’t be a Hornet.

The person who bought my house knows that the school zone has changed, and they saved some cash because of it. While Langley is a nice-to-have, they bought in GF for the small town feel, the beauty of the community, the lot size, etc. They take their savings and do what a significant minority of Great Falls already does and send their child to private. (Of course, they may not have needed that and just bank the cash or take an extra vacation)

They may also just send their child to HHS, but that is not as likely—though still a decent chance.

Rinse and repeat with those having school age kids and again those who are presumably on the financial brink because they want their children in Langley.

This is all conjecture of course but with some basis in history and how people act.

That’s exactly what would happen.

And the complaint about Great Falls would be how many people opt out of FCPS whereas now it’s about which FCPS school they attend.

Anonymous wrote:Gee, you all speak like the Hutchison site is a done deal. What if the FCPS bulids a HS somewhere else?


Copy & paste from another thread:

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/105/1025026.page

###
Pekarsky - I've brought up the Western HS before. It's difficult to go to the community and explain why the overcrowding is allowed to continue year after year. Almost every school in Sully is overcrowded except Westfield and if you were visiting Westfield you might think it was overcrowded as well. What do I say to my constituents with the timeline in the CIP [which indicates planning for the new high school would not begin until 2026]? This doesn't seem like a solution that the community can accept? Can we make a priority sooner? And how far could we go [in terms of proceeding with the new high school] before the process could be stopped [if we concluded it should not be pursued]?

Platenberg - The design of the Western HS will take every minute of two years. If we were to accelerate the plans for the Western HS, beyond what's in the current CIP, it would delay other capital projects. After the design process was completed, the bidding process with contractors would take several months. The construction phase of a new high school can take 3 to 3 1/2 years. But we don't have a site yet. We have land, but it's being used by the community. We may need to cast a wider net when looking at potential locations. The site acquisition process also takes time. The total time needed is at least six years from site acquisition to completion, and that is not a conservative estimate.
###

This confirms what some people have been saying. Hutchison site is NOT a done deal. Actually it’s most likely out of the consideration if the “land being used by community” means the Hutchison site.

It is possible that they decide to build around Bull Run on the Centreville/Westfield border. I've thought about it. But this presents challenges in itself. Namely it isn't that Chantilly/Centreville are overcrowded because of growth issues in Southwestern Fairfax, but rather they are unable to be relieved by Westfield as Westfield artificially contains a significant number of Herndon area kids. In fact, it is the Herndon area that is overcrowded as of now and as such has to send Crossfield to Oakton, Fox Mill to South Lakes, Floris/Mcnair/Coates to Westfield due to the lack of an additional high school in the region.
1). Under such option the Herndon area kids still experience a long commute as they are still needed @ Westfield to backfill the kids that will be sent to the new Southwestern HS.
2). It indirectly makes it IMPOSSIBLE to bring down Forestville/Great Falls down to Herndon HS to save on logistics and fuel.

We know it’s all speculation, we’re just going on what we know

Gee, you all speak like the Hutchison site is a done deal. What if the FCPS bulids a HS somewhere else?


Copy & paste from another thread:

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/105/1025026.page

###
Pekarsky - I've brought up the Western HS before. It's difficult to go to the community and explain why the overcrowding is allowed to continue year after year. Almost every school in Sully is overcrowded except Westfield and if you were visiting Westfield you might think it was overcrowded as well. What do I say to my constituents with the timeline in the CIP [which indicates planning for the new high school would not begin until 2026]? This doesn't seem like a solution that the community can accept? Can we make a priority sooner? And how far could we go [in terms of proceeding with the new high school] before the process could be stopped [if we concluded it should not be pursued]?

Platenberg - The design of the Western HS will take every minute of two years. If we were to accelerate the plans for the Western HS, beyond what's in the current CIP, it would delay other capital projects. After the design process was completed, the bidding process with contractors would take several months. The construction phase of a new high school can take 3 to 3 1/2 years. But we don't have a site yet. We have land, but it's being used by the community. We may need to cast a wider net when looking at potential locations. The site acquisition process also takes time. The total time needed is at least six years from site acquisition to completion, and that is not a conservative estimate.
###

This confirms what some people have been saying. Hutchison site is NOT a done deal. Actually it’s most likely out of the consideration if the “land being used by community” means the Hutchison site.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NP.
But it looks likely the proximity standard would yield the following

Hutchison :
South Herndon/Clearview ES
McNair
Coates
Hutchison
~550 per class size ~ 65 percent FARMS

South Lakes :
Stays the same but gains West Floris
~650 kids per class size ~ 30 percent FARMS

Herndon :
Aldrin
Armstrong
Dranesville
North Clearview/Herndon
Great Falls
Forestville
~550 kids per class size ~20 percent FARMS

Do note however that class sizes reflect entering cohorts. There will be some level of attrition as kids dropout especially FARM kids.

In addition if the additional housing projects in Reston do come to fruition it is likely that South Lakes will give up Dogwood to Hutchison/Herndon in due time.

Westfield will in turn probably take in Brookfield from Chantilly and Bull Run from Centreville. Then McLean and Marshall will give up western lands to Langley relinquished by the removal of Great Falls/Forestville. taking into account the Madison/Oakton additions, and with that the Western high school overcrowding situation is solved!!!!

For those complaining that Oak Hill kids are scared of FARM kids the resulting boundaries still have a good chunk of FARM kids in them each.

. This scenario assumes that the parents in GF would actually send their children to Herndon.

It’s much more likely that the FARMs rate would e higher at Herndon because many zoned Great Falls children simply wouldn’t attend.

True but to what extent? A lot of Great Falls residents are stretching their bucks thin on housing to ensure their kids go to Langley, will they truly shell out their leftover savings after boundary change? There is a big difference when those parents complain with Herndon HS of ~45 percent FARMS as of current vs ~20 percent after the proximity formula. From a standpoint of getting the Great Falls parents out of Langley this is far better than those advocating a "parity" model.

Well now the bolded is a strange motivation for boundary decisions.

McNair/Coates parents have got to stop asking Floris/Oak Hill/Fox Mill parents to join them in Hutchison. We aren’t some prized commodity for the special interest of keeping Hutchison HS academically competitive to magically fix the demographics. They continue to advance invalid talking points that simply are illogical.

1). They do instigate valid proximity concerns that Forestville kids that are only 2 miles away Herndon HS go there instead of Langley. But turn the other cheek and demand taking Oak Hill ES kids 6 miles away instead of Southern Clearview/Herndon ES kids just across the street. Hypocritical.
2). Promote false claims that FCPS won’t allow ~60 percent or so FARMS high schools when there are FIVE already in FCPS, namely Mount Vernon, Annadale, Falls Church, Lewis, justice. This is 20 percent of FCPS high schools, and represents intentional actions by the Board of Supervisors/School Board to do so.
3). Call us UMC residents in Oak Hill racist/classist. The Fox Mill/Floris kids are still going to a pretty high FARMS South Lakes and that number would only increase when the new housing projects get completed. About 35 percent black/hispanic as well. In fact the selfish ones are you all who think you get to dictate which school “fails”. Remove Fox Mill/Floris from South Lakes, it falls in the same situation Hutchison will be in. There are too many poors and too few advantaged kids to satisfy everyone in this region of Western Fairfax,

To this end there has been an exceptional amount of wishcasting by such individuals that more than anything seem rooted in their own insecurities and projections than the Oak Hill area kids.

Anonymous wrote:yeah, parents with means are not going to allow the 'consultants' and school board to screw around with their kids' education.

Everyone will look out after their self interest when redistributing comes and the bleeding heart liberals will be no different as in this thread. The FARMS kids in Herndon will probably be concentrated up as it will make the least amount of people unhappy. For those advocating unpopular parity models, pray that Stu Gibson comes out of retirement and primaries Melanie Meren. The only SB member with a backbone in the last 20 years to go against popular sentiment in redistricting.

yeah, parents with means are not going to allow the 'consultants' and school board to screw around with their kids' education.

The consultant did say that you have to account for the reality that people who can choose may not go along with what you want.

The idea that parents and great falls would actually send their kids to this theoretical new school is laughable. It is more likely they would go private or even strike up plans with McLean to break away from Fairfax as was suggested previously on DCUM

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NP.
But it looks likely the proximity standard would yield the following

Hutchison :
South Herndon/Clearview ES
McNair
Coates
Hutchison
~550 per class size ~ 65 percent FARMS

South Lakes :
Stays the same but gains West Floris
~650 kids per class size ~ 30 percent FARMS

Herndon :
Aldrin
Armstrong
Dranesville
North Clearview/Herndon
Great Falls
Forestville
~550 kids per class size ~20 percent FARMS

Do note however that class sizes reflect entering cohorts. There will be some level of attrition as kids dropout especially FARM kids.

In addition if the additional housing projects in Reston do come to fruition it is likely that South Lakes will give up Dogwood to Hutchison/Herndon in due time.

Westfield will in turn probably take in Brookfield from Chantilly and Bull Run from Centreville. Then McLean and Marshall will give up western lands to Langley relinquished by the removal of Great Falls/Forestville. taking into account the Madison/Oakton additions, and with that the Western high school overcrowding situation is solved!!!!

For those complaining that Oak Hill kids are scared of FARM kids the resulting boundaries still have a good chunk of FARM kids in them each.

. This scenario assumes that the parents in GF would actually send their children to Herndon.

It’s much more likely that the FARMs rate would e higher at Herndon because many zoned Great Falls children simply wouldn’t attend.

True but to what extent? A lot of Great Falls residents are stretching their bucks thin on housing to ensure their kids go to Langley, will they truly shell out their leftover savings after boundary change? There is a big difference when those parents complain with Herndon HS of ~45 percent FARMS as of current vs ~20 percent after the proximity formula. From a standpoint of getting the Great Falls parents out of Langley this is far better than those advocating a "parity" model.

If I am living in the Western part of Great Falls and it’s a financial stretch but I do it for Langley

And the school board rezones me for Herndon

And my kids are young enough not to be eligible for grandfathering

Then I sell and get a less expensive house in one of those lovely tree-lined streets in Herndon (hopefully near the rec center)

While my house may have lost value, it’s still relatively high because it’s in Great Falls.

I bank the difference and send my child to Herndon or pay for private school with the savings if I just really insist my child won’t be a Hornet.

The person who bought my house knows that the school zone has changed, and they saved some cash because of it. While Langley is a nice-to-have, they bought in GF for the small town feel, the beauty of the community, the lot size, etc. They take their savings and do what a significant minority of Great Falls already does and send their child to private. (Of course, they may not have needed that and just bank the cash or take an extra vacation)

They may also just send their child to HHS, but that is not as likely—though still a decent chance.

Rinse and repeat with those having school age kids and again those who are presumably on the financial brink because they want their children in Langley.

This is all conjecture of course but with some basis in history and how people act.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Hispanics decided themselves to move in and convert large areas of Hutchison and Herndon in general to 75% or greater Hispanic, enough to fit an entire high school. Clearly contrary to the privileged posters here, the Hispanics do not seem to care strongly how diverse their school is and could in fact be said to prefer a homogenous community of each other.

Meh. Initially settling where people you know or acquainted with is the story of chain migration for centuries. Our latest newcomers are no different than those who came before. In a generation or two they will disperse and integrate more. This is the way.

That was the way when we had a “melting pot” or even “salad” concept of differing ethnic origins. People were expected to integrate while retaining some of the flavor of their country/culture of origin (continuing my culinary analogies lol)

The current mainstream cultural ideology is that every group should retain 100% of where they originated and fight for place and power in the white western cis hetero capitalist patriarchal society that is founded on slavery oppression and violence.

Even if one were to believe that is the case, the proponents of that ideology won't support the opening of a new high school that draws only from low-income, majority Hispanic feeders.

They would want a school with socio-economic balance where the White and Asian kids could be reminded regularly of their privilege, rather than ensconced in their bubbles of affluence.

So you might want to dust off the "melting pot" and "salad" analogies, which may serve you better in the long run.

Mixing a school as much as possible by every measure and then teaching the kids to see each other primarily through the lens of race religion and ethnic origin, with an emphasis on how they are all so different and constantly discussing historical grievances would be very effective in fomenting division.

They can have teachers point out the various privileges and advantage some students have and make sure the others know that society is structurally so that they themselves will never be able to provide some of that for their own children.

When this inevitably increases tensions and makes the school extra toxic, fcps can hire a consultant and give them a few hundred thousand to send a google survey and figure out why. (If there’s one thing they love, it’s throwing a few hundred k and consultants every five minutes).

The idealogy is toxic regardless of the racial and socioeconomic mix of the schools, which have changed and will continue to change over time.

I agree with this, apart from the fact that it's a straw-man argument when it comes to what they would actually do if they built a new HS near Hutchison and, instead, identified feeders to the school that were all relatively close to the school and resulted in a diverse high school that was not super-majority FARMS from its inception.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Hispanics decided themselves to move in and convert large areas of Hutchison and Herndon in general to 75% or greater Hispanic, enough to fit an entire high school. Clearly contrary to the privileged posters here, the Hispanics do not seem to care strongly how diverse their school is and could in fact be said to prefer a homogenous community of each other.

Meh. Initially settling where people you know or acquainted with is the story of chain migration for centuries. Our latest newcomers are no different than those who came before. In a generation or two they will disperse and integrate more. This is the way.

That was the way when we had a “melting pot” or even “salad” concept of differing ethnic origins. People were expected to integrate while retaining some of the flavor of their country/culture of origin (continuing my culinary analogies lol)

The current mainstream cultural ideology is that every group should retain 100% of where they originated and fight for place and power in the white western cis hetero capitalist patriarchal society that is founded on slavery oppression and violence.

Even if one were to believe that is the case, the proponents of that ideology won't support the opening of a new high school that draws only from low-income, majority Hispanic feeders.

They would want a school with socio-economic balance where the White and Asian kids could be reminded regularly of their privilege, rather than ensconced in their bubbles of affluence.

So you might want to dust off the "melting pot" and "salad" analogies, which may serve you better in the long run.

Mixing a school as much as possible by every measure and then teaching the kids to see each other primarily through the lens of race religion and ethnic origin, with an emphasis on how they are all so different and constantly discussing historical grievances would be very effective in fomenting division.

They can have teachers point out the various privileges and advantage some students have and make sure the others know that society is structurally so that they themselves will never be able to provide some of that for their own children.

When this inevitably increases tensions and makes the school extra toxic, fcps can hire a consultant and give them a few hundred thousand to send a google survey and figure out why. (If there’s one thing they love, it’s throwing a few hundred k and consultants every five minutes).

The idealogy is toxic regardless of the racial and socioeconomic mix of the schools, which have changed and will continue to change over time.