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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Robert Pape is a UChicago professor and one of the leading experts on air power. He has advised every White House since 2001 (43 W) to 2024 (46 Biden), including Trump 45.

He paints a terrible picture of the war now and the consequences into the future.

Can anyone point to a single academic expert that says the Iran invasion is a good thing?

The Iran War Expert: I Simulated The Iran War for 20 Years. Here’s What Happens Next
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcXfcXJvMXg[/youtube]

Trump IS TRAPPED In Iran Escalation Nightmare
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hCKv3HbTjA[/youtube][/quote]

There are a whole bunch of experts saying the Iranians have not used their best missiles and drones. They are still using old and outdated missiles to deplete the air defenses. The next stage of the war will be a lot more destructive in Israel, the gulf states and the US.

Though they have been saying it on long time. 
https://youtu.be/pJRmkd3H4DY?si=8h-CZBBj3k8gVrOZ

Air defenses of Israel and US has collapsed
https://www.youtube.com/live/nMjMz8yL_kk?si=5BFBhRX_wkaYX70R[/quote]

How real and current are these analyses?  There is very little info available on what Iranian targets have been hit, but there are numerous sources citing that the numbers of ballistic missile and drone launches by Iran have shrunk dramatically, and that Iran's attacks are already less than 10% of what they were at the beginning of the war.  That suggests a significant reduction in Iran's capabilities, whether many stockpiles and launch sites destroyed, command and control significantly degraded and so on.  While "experts" are saying one thing about Iran's attack capabilities, the observed evidence seems to be the opposite.

We also don't know the full extent of what Israeli and other targets they did or didn't hit.  Israel doesn't seem to be admitting much and if anything are expanding and broadening their strikes and attacks, whether targets in Lebanon or even hitting Basij street checkpoints in downtown Tehran [/quote]

This is very real. Look up the bio of the speakers.

The inceptors are lucky if they get a 25% success rate. Anything above Mach 4 or with multiple wars heads, terminal stage maneuverability or decoys gets through. The larger number of drones and missiles used earlier in the war was planned. They used cheap older drones and ballistic missiles to use up US, gulf states and Israel interceptors. Even this stuff got through.

They also knocked out long range radar at American bases. These were the early warning radars. This is a key component of the US military air defense. It takes Iranian ballistic missiles 5-12 minutes hit American gulf bases and 7-15 minutes to hit Israel. Without these radars the engagement time for US and Israel is cut in half.

Now the Iranians are starting using their multi warhead missiles, their more sophisticated drones, etc. The Iranians can hit anything they want in the gulf and missiles are getting through Israeli air defense. If you look at the Hebrew language media you will get a picture of what is going on.

This is exactly what the Russians did to the Ukrainian air defenses when they invaded Ukraine. It’s a playbook. The Iranians are not stupid. They know they win if the gulf oil is shut down

Yes less Iranian missiles and drones are being launched but now ask the other question. Do you have to fire double the interceptors to achieve the same interception percentage? [/quote]

The bottom line is that more innovation is needed where it comes to interceptor tech.  Ukraine has been working hard at that.  We on the other hand continue to shovel trillions into the bottomless pit of big military contractors who give us solutions like $15 million missiles to intercept a $30,000 drone.

As for their multi-warhead missiles, they are blunt instruments.  Those multiple warheads aren't guided and just fall randomly.  Far more likely they hit a bush or a parking lot than a legitimate military target.  They are also much smaller warheads than their regular missiles, and as such aren't capable of taking out anything hardened, or anything that's a bigger military target, they are more instruments designed for attempting to terrorize and broadly harm civilians than for actually taking out high value military targets.  I'm also not seeing much additional sophistication in the latest rounds of drones, either.  [/quote]

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