Reply to VA: First COVID-19 Case Confirmed

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
+1
200 cases today (safe to eat out)
6 days - 400 cases (safe to eat out)
12 days - 800 cases (safe to eat out$
18 days - 1600 cases (safe to eat out)
24 days - 3200 cases (safe to eat out)
30 days - 6400 cases (safe to eat out)
36 days - 12800 cases (safe to eat out)
42 days - 25600 cases (safe to eat out but not go to Costco)
48 days - 51200 cases (safe for carry out only go to stores for necessities)
54 days - 102400 cases (safe to get food delivered and left on porch)
60 days - 204800 cases (make all food at home)

We are good to get food out for at least two more months.  Even if you want to be conservative and stop early, we have at least six weeks before there is much chance of running into sick individuals.  I’m not worried at all right now.[/quote]

Why are you saying the doubling time is 6 days? I've seen it 3 days, or 2 1/2. The doubling rate of positive tests has been controlled by access to testing, and doesn't represent actual spread.
Why are you saying that 40 positive tests represents 200 actual cases out there? With a 2 1/2 or 3 day doubling time, I think the actual number today is much more than that.
So, just to humor me, try again that whole calculation, with 4000 instead of 200, and a 3 day doubling time.
today	4000
3 days	8000
6 days	16000
9 days 	32000
12 days	64000
15 days	128000
18 days	256000
21 days	512000

Yeah.
[/quote]

Everything I’ve seen has been six days.  If it’s three days then that’s much more alarming but still we are at the start.  We would have a couple weeks instead of six weeks.  I would be interested in where you are seeing it doubles every three days.  We have to be careful jumping the gun and sounding alarmist early because then when it doesn’t materialize no one will believe it’s actually going to be a risk a few weeks later.[/quote]

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