Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
+1
200 cases today (safe to eat out)
6 days - 400 cases (safe to eat out)
12 days - 800 cases (safe to eat out$
18 days - 1600 cases (safe to eat out)
24 days - 3200 cases (safe to eat out)
30 days - 6400 cases (safe to eat out)
36 days - 12800 cases (safe to eat out)
42 days - 25600 cases (safe to eat out but not go to Costco)
48 days - 51200 cases (safe for carry out only go to stores for necessities)
54 days - 102400 cases (safe to get food delivered and left on porch)
60 days - 204800 cases (make all food at home)

We are good to get food out for at least two more months. Even if you want to be conservative and stop early, we have at least six weeks before there is much chance of running into sick individuals. I’m not worried at all right now.

Why are you saying the doubling time is 6 days? I've seen it 3 days, or 2 1/2. The doubling rate of positive tests has been controlled by access to testing, and doesn't represent actual spread.
Why are you saying that 40 positive tests represents 200 actual cases out there? With a 2 1/2 or 3 day doubling time, I think the actual number today is much more than that.
So, just to humor me, try again that whole calculation, with 4000 instead of 200, and a 3 day doubling time.
today 4000
3 days 8000
6 days 16000
9 days 32000
12 days 64000
15 days 128000
18 days 256000
21 days 512000

Yeah.

Everything I’ve seen has been six days. If it’s three days then that’s much more alarming but still we are at the start. We would have a couple weeks instead of six weeks. I would be interested in where you are seeing it doubles every three days. We have to be careful jumping the gun and sounding alarmist early because then when it doesn’t materialize no one will believe it’s actually going to be a risk a few weeks later.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
+1
200 cases today (safe to eat out)
6 days - 400 cases (safe to eat out)
12 days - 800 cases (safe to eat out$
18 days - 1600 cases (safe to eat out)
24 days - 3200 cases (safe to eat out)
30 days - 6400 cases (safe to eat out)
36 days - 12800 cases (safe to eat out)
42 days - 25600 cases (safe to eat out but not go to Costco)
48 days - 51200 cases (safe for carry out only go to stores for necessities)
54 days - 102400 cases (safe to get food delivered and left on porch)
60 days - 204800 cases (make all food at home)

We are good to get food out for at least two more months. Even if you want to be conservative and stop early, we have at least six weeks before there is much chance of running into sick individuals. I’m not worried at all right now.

Why are you saying the doubling time is 6 days? I've seen it 3 days, or 2 1/2. The doubling rate of positive tests has been controlled by access to testing, and doesn't represent actual spread.
Why are you saying that 40 positive tests represents 200 actual cases out there? With a 2 1/2 or 3 day doubling time, I think the actual number today is much more than that.
So, just to humor me, try again that whole calculation, with 4000 instead of 200, and a 3 day doubling time.
today 4000
3 days 8000
6 days 16000
9 days 32000
12 days 64000
15 days 128000
18 days 256000
21 days 512000

Yeah.

The problem is that I think today’s number is probably 2000-5000. So we are already 2-3 weeks in. Once tests are actually done, we are going to see an alarming amount of numbers. And all those people who have it but couldn’t get tested were spreading it and then it will take 5 days for those people to show symptoms.

Do you see how frightening this is?

We are where Italy was 2 weeks ago. We have the opportunity to flatten the curve but idiots like the pp don’t seem to get it.

So...do those of you who think it’s safe to eat out with thousands of cases in our area realize (even assuming that number is 100% accurate) how easily someone who previously sat at the table you’re at, handled your food or utensils, opened the same doors, used the same bathrooms, or even walked through the same air space could be in the 14 day period before they show symptoms?

Anonymous wrote:I’m just trying to wrap my head around the DMV being doomed to 200,000 cases in less than 60 days, when we haven’t even seen that number GLOBALLY in 3-4 months.

Are you paying attention to how other countries are stopping the spread? We aren't doing that.

I was just going to post about the doubling time. It’s more like 2-3 days, depending on which data you use.

Anonymous wrote:
+1
200 cases today (safe to eat out)
6 days - 400 cases (safe to eat out)
12 days - 800 cases (safe to eat out$
18 days - 1600 cases (safe to eat out)
24 days - 3200 cases (safe to eat out)
30 days - 6400 cases (safe to eat out)
36 days - 12800 cases (safe to eat out)
42 days - 25600 cases (safe to eat out but not go to Costco)
48 days - 51200 cases (safe for carry out only go to stores for necessities)
54 days - 102400 cases (safe to get food delivered and left on porch)
60 days - 204800 cases (make all food at home)

We are good to get food out for at least two more months. Even if you want to be conservative and stop early, we have at least six weeks before there is much chance of running into sick individuals. I’m not worried at all right now.

Why are you saying the doubling time is 6 days? I've seen it 3 days, or 2 1/2. The doubling rate of positive tests has been controlled by access to testing, and doesn't represent actual spread.
Why are you saying that 40 positive tests represents 200 actual cases out there? With a 2 1/2 or 3 day doubling time, I think the actual number today is much more than that.
So, just to humor me, try again that whole calculation, with 4000 instead of 200, and a 3 day doubling time.
today 4000
3 days 8000
6 days 16000
9 days 32000
12 days 64000
15 days 128000
18 days 256000
21 days 512000

Yeah.

Anonymous wrote:I’m just trying to wrap my head around the DMV being doomed to 200,000 cases in less than 60 days, when we haven’t even seen that number GLOBALLY in 3-4 months.

I’m the one that posted the doubling numbers and think it’s fine to eat out. It’s the nature of doubling an exponential growth. It’s hard for a lot of people to understand but it starts out very slowly and looks almost linear (linear is 1, 2 , 3, 4....). A few doublings aren’t that noticeable. Once you get towards 6 or 8, the numbers absolutely explode. If10 million people in the world get Coronavirus in 2020, fully half - 5 million would get it the final week. That’s the nature of this type of growth. It’s not even noticeable in the start (which is why we are fine now) but after a short time it’s everywhere and looks like it just exploded. The reason people want social distancing is to slow the growth now but ultimately it’s very unlikely you’ll encounter an infected individual at the beginning of the curve when it still looks like a linear growth. That’s not to say you have no chance. You certainly have a small but non-zero chance of being one of the 400 or 800 infected this week but it’s so vanishingly small a chance that it’s worth the risk for me. 5 or 6 weeks from now? That’s a different story.

People still need to pay the mortgage, rent. People still need money. That means going out, judiciously.

I’m just trying to wrap my head around the DMV being doomed to 200,000 cases in less than 60 days, when we haven’t even seen that number GLOBALLY in 3-4 months.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is what exponential growth means.

One week ago there were 0 cases.

3 then 5 then 9 then 17 then 30 now 41.

And this is with the bare minimum of testing. Please explain this to all the people who you know that refuse to stay home and flatten the curve.

Math is not your strong suit.

+1
200 cases today (safe to eat out)
6 days - 400 cases (safe to eat out)
12 days - 800 cases (safe to eat out$
18 days - 1600 cases (safe to eat out)
24 days - 3200 cases (safe to eat out)
30 days - 6400 cases (safe to eat out)
36 days - 12800 cases (safe to eat out)
42 days - 25600 cases (safe to eat out but not go to Costco)
48 days - 51200 cases (safe for carry out only go to stores for necessities)
54 days - 102400 cases (safe to get food delivered and left on porch)
60 days - 204800 cases (make all food at home)

We are good to get food out for at least two more months. Even if you want to be conservative and stop early, we have at least six weeks before there is much chance of running into sick individuals. I’m not worried at all right now.

WTF?!?! Who are you to say we are safe to eat out? People can’t get tested even if they want to. You are the exact problem and why they will most likely start a mandatory lockdown.

The math genius above sounds just like my Italian relatives a few weeks ago. "Oh it's no big deal" "We can eat out since the tables have tape that separates them" "I'm young and healthy so I have nothing to worry about" etc. etc...

It's these attitudes that got Italy where it is today.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:[guardian]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is what exponential growth means.

One week ago there were 0 cases.

3 then 5 then 9 then 17 then 30 now 41.

And this is with the bare minimum of testing. Please explain this to all the people who you know that refuse to stay home and flatten the curve.

Math is not your strong suit.

+1
200 cases today (safe to eat out)
6 days - 400 cases (safe to eat out)
12 days - 800 cases (safe to eat out$
18 days - 1600 cases (safe to eat out)
24 days - 3200 cases (safe to eat out)
30 days - 6400 cases (safe to eat out)
36 days - 12800 cases (safe to eat out)
42 days - 25600 cases (safe to eat out but not go to Costco)
48 days - 51200 cases (safe for carry out only go to stores for necessities)
54 days - 102400 cases (safe to get food delivered and left on porch)
60 days - 204800 cases (make all food at home)

We are good to get food out for at least two more months. Even if you want to be conservative and stop early, we have at least six weeks before there is much chance of running into sick individuals. I’m not worried at all right now.

I’d agree with you more if we had more testing.

We can probably assume 5x to 10x as many infected as we have tested. So 40 confirmed would be 200-400 total infected. We are at the early stages. By May we will be in trouble. I think mid April people need to start being careful but right now most people should be fine. That doesn’t mean we should all go to giant conventions but going about your daily life normally for a few more weeks seems fine.

I think this kind of mentality is exactly how things go wrong. Everything is fine and until it’s not. How do you think the cases spread before it gets really bad?

+1000. The whole point of social distancing NOW is to try to mitigate how bad it gets later.

No one was at the restaurant yesterday. Eating out is fine.

No one? No servers? Cooks? Hostesses? No other patrons at all?

Anonymous wrote:[guardian]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is what exponential growth means.

One week ago there were 0 cases.

3 then 5 then 9 then 17 then 30 now 41.

And this is with the bare minimum of testing. Please explain this to all the people who you know that refuse to stay home and flatten the curve.

Math is not your strong suit.

+1
200 cases today (safe to eat out)
6 days - 400 cases (safe to eat out)
12 days - 800 cases (safe to eat out$
18 days - 1600 cases (safe to eat out)
24 days - 3200 cases (safe to eat out)
30 days - 6400 cases (safe to eat out)
36 days - 12800 cases (safe to eat out)
42 days - 25600 cases (safe to eat out but not go to Costco)
48 days - 51200 cases (safe for carry out only go to stores for necessities)
54 days - 102400 cases (safe to get food delivered and left on porch)
60 days - 204800 cases (make all food at home)

We are good to get food out for at least two more months. Even if you want to be conservative and stop early, we have at least six weeks before there is much chance of running into sick individuals. I’m not worried at all right now.

I’d agree with you more if we had more testing.

We can probably assume 5x to 10x as many infected as we have tested. So 40 confirmed would be 200-400 total infected. We are at the early stages. By May we will be in trouble. I think mid April people need to start being careful but right now most people should be fine. That doesn’t mean we should all go to giant conventions but going about your daily life normally for a few more weeks seems fine.

I think this kind of mentality is exactly how things go wrong. Everything is fine and until it’s not. How do you think the cases spread before it gets really bad?

+1000. The whole point of social distancing NOW is to try to mitigate how bad it gets later.

No one was at the restaurant yesterday. Eating out is fine.

[guardian]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is what exponential growth means.

One week ago there were 0 cases.

3 then 5 then 9 then 17 then 30 now 41.

And this is with the bare minimum of testing. Please explain this to all the people who you know that refuse to stay home and flatten the curve.

Math is not your strong suit.

+1
200 cases today (safe to eat out)
6 days - 400 cases (safe to eat out)
12 days - 800 cases (safe to eat out$
18 days - 1600 cases (safe to eat out)
24 days - 3200 cases (safe to eat out)
30 days - 6400 cases (safe to eat out)
36 days - 12800 cases (safe to eat out)
42 days - 25600 cases (safe to eat out but not go to Costco)
48 days - 51200 cases (safe for carry out only go to stores for necessities)
54 days - 102400 cases (safe to get food delivered and left on porch)
60 days - 204800 cases (make all food at home)

We are good to get food out for at least two more months. Even if you want to be conservative and stop early, we have at least six weeks before there is much chance of running into sick individuals. I’m not worried at all right now.

I’d agree with you more if we had more testing.

We can probably assume 5x to 10x as many infected as we have tested. So 40 confirmed would be 200-400 total infected. We are at the early stages. By May we will be in trouble. I think mid April people need to start being careful but right now most people should be fine. That doesn’t mean we should all go to giant conventions but going about your daily life normally for a few more weeks seems fine.

I think this kind of mentality is exactly how things go wrong. Everything is fine and until it’s not. How do you think the cases spread before it gets really bad?

+1000. The whole point of social distancing NOW is to try to mitigate how bad it gets later.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is what exponential growth means.

One week ago there were 0 cases.

3 then 5 then 9 then 17 then 30 now 41.

And this is with the bare minimum of testing. Please explain this to all the people who you know that refuse to stay home and flatten the curve.

Math is not your strong suit.

+1
200 cases today (safe to eat out)
6 days - 400 cases (safe to eat out)
12 days - 800 cases (safe to eat out$
18 days - 1600 cases (safe to eat out)
24 days - 3200 cases (safe to eat out)
30 days - 6400 cases (safe to eat out)
36 days - 12800 cases (safe to eat out)
42 days - 25600 cases (safe to eat out but not go to Costco)
48 days - 51200 cases (safe for carry out only go to stores for necessities)
54 days - 102400 cases (safe to get food delivered and left on porch)
60 days - 204800 cases (make all food at home)

We are good to get food out for at least two more months. Even if you want to be conservative and stop early, we have at least six weeks before there is much chance of running into sick individuals. I’m not worried at all right now.

I’d agree with you more if we had more testing.

We can probably assume 5x to 10x as many infected as we have tested. So 40 confirmed would be 200-400 total infected. We are at the early stages. By May we will be in trouble. I think mid April people need to start being careful but right now most people should be fine. That doesn’t mean we should all go to giant conventions but going about your daily life normally for a few more weeks seems fine.

I think this kind of mentality is exactly how things go wrong. Everything is fine and until it’s not. How do you think the cases spread before it gets really bad?