Reply to VA: First COVID-19 Case Confirmed

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I’m just trying to wrap my head around the DMV being doomed to 200,000 cases in less than 60 days, when we haven’t even seen that number GLOBALLY in 3-4 months. [/quote]

I’m the one that posted the doubling numbers and think it’s fine to eat out.  It’s the nature of doubling an exponential growth.  It’s hard for a lot of people to understand but it starts out very slowly and looks almost linear (linear is 1, 2 , 3, 4....). A few doublings aren’t that noticeable.  Once you get towards 6 or 8, the numbers absolutely explode.  If10 million people in the world get Coronavirus in 2020, fully half - 5 million would get it the final week.  That’s the nature of this type of growth.  It’s not even noticeable in the start (which is why we are fine now) but after a short time it’s everywhere and looks like it just exploded.  The reason people want social distancing is to slow the growth now but ultimately it’s very unlikely you’ll encounter an infected individual at the beginning of the curve when it still looks like a linear growth.  That’s not to say you have no chance.  You certainly have a small but non-zero chance of being one of the 400 or 800 infected this week but it’s so vanishingly small a chance that it’s worth the risk for me.  5 or 6 weeks from now?  That’s a different story.[/quote]

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