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Reply to "Clinton bounce 10 points"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I heard on the NPR politics podcast that whoever is in the lead in about three weeks is normally the person who will win. I don't believe any rules apply this year. But I hope it's her[/quote] That's the Labor Day Theory, which may be completely irrelevant this year. Remember the Brexit vote? It "never could have happened" back in the spring.[/quote] The Brexit vote was entirely consistent with polls.[/quote] Sure, the polls taken in the last week or so before the election[/quote] Polls have never claimed to predict the future, only to try to describe the state of the race as it is in the moment. 538 makes predictions and so betting markets, but not polls.[/quote]
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