Anonymous
Post 07/30/2016 23:51     Subject: Re:Clinton bounce 10 points
Trump just tweeted:

"Nielson Media Research final numbers on ACCEPTANCE SPEECH: TRUMP 32.2 MILLION. CLINTON 27.8 MILLION. Thank you!"

Never doubted that he would .........
Anonymous
Post 07/30/2016 23:39     Subject: Clinton bounce 10 points
Anonymous wrote:538.com has Trump and Clinton in a dead heat as of today.


Interesting: two models show a dead heat and one that is perhaps the most subjective shows Clinton winning.
Anonymous
Post 07/30/2016 23:30     Subject: Clinton bounce 10 points
538.com has Trump and Clinton in a dead heat as of today.
Anonymous
Post 07/30/2016 20:53     Subject: Clinton bounce 10 points
Everyone reputable is saying we will not know for another few days. Let's wait and see.
Anonymous
Post 07/30/2016 20:52     Subject: Clinton bounce 10 points
Anonymous wrote:The polls are showing undecided and third party support that Not likely to go to Trump, but may go to Clinton, and what they do will decide the race.


I am one of these people and will vote for neither.
Anonymous
Post 07/30/2016 20:49     Subject: Clinton bounce 10 points
The polls are showing undecided and third party support that Not likely to go to Trump, but may go to Clinton, and what they do will decide the race.
Anonymous
Post 07/30/2016 20:16     Subject: Clinton bounce 10 points
Anonymous wrote:Repeat after me, HRC is guaranteed to win. Unless Trump wins Pennsylvania, and he is losing ground there, its over no matter what else happens in the swing states.


Repeat after me that unless Hillary wins in PA, the probability is that she is going to lose the election.
Anonymous
Post 07/30/2016 20:08     Subject: Clinton bounce 10 points
Repeat after me, HRC is guaranteed to win. Unless Trump wins Pennsylvania, and he is losing ground there, its over no matter what else happens in the swing states.
Anonymous
Post 07/30/2016 18:40     Subject: Clinton bounce 10 points
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The Reuters poll yesterday showed a 7 point bounce for Clinton. Also the latest poll from Missouri shows a tie where Romney won Missouri by ten points. So far, everything is pointing to a big bounce for Clinton.


The Reuters poll was after a change in methodology. It is explained by Reuters on their website. In a matchup with the nominees for the Libertarian and Green parties, Reuters shows Trump and Clinton to be in a tie.


They don't say what the actual impact was, but I am guessing the original wording benefited Clinton because two weeks ago she was doing about 6 points in Reuters than in any other poll.


See what Reuters did here:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2016/07/29/reuters-ipsos-poll-change-methodology/


Please get an explanation from a more reliable source than Breitbart.
Anonymous
Post 07/30/2016 18:37     Subject: Clinton bounce 10 points
Emails Sweden to be an issue with Hillary she can't get a break
Anonymous
Post 07/30/2016 18:33     Subject: Clinton bounce 10 points
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:She was really damaged by the dnc emails she's lucky to stay where she was before


She, nor any member of her csmpsig, had anything to do with the DNC emails!


Sadly, the general public doesn't understand the distinction


This won't help:
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/07/29/hacked-clinton-campaign-admits-campaign-data-compromised/
Anonymous
Post 07/30/2016 18:31     Subject: Clinton bounce 10 points
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Trump's bounce was nil immediately after the convention and showed up later on. Is Hillary's bounce supposed to be different?


The LA Times tracking poll was until the 29th ....... would we not expect some movement after four days of the convention?


Not necessarily, because the bounce lasts a week or two after the convention, so the end of the DNC is the middle of Trump's bounce.
Anonymous
Post 07/30/2016 18:14     Subject: Clinton bounce 10 points
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I heard on the NPR politics podcast that whoever is in the lead in about three weeks is normally the person who will win. I don't believe any rules apply this year. But I hope it's her


That's the Labor Day Theory, which may be completely irrelevant this year. Remember the Brexit vote? It "never could have happened" back in the spring.


The Brexit vote was entirely consistent with polls.


Sure, the polls taken in the last week or so before the election


Polls have never claimed to predict the future, only to try to describe the state of the race as it is in the moment.
538 makes predictions and so betting markets, but not polls.
Anonymous
Post 07/30/2016 18:08     Subject: Clinton bounce 10 points
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:She was really damaged by the dnc emails she's lucky to stay where she was before


She, nor any member of her csmpsig, had anything to do with the DNC emails!


Sadly, the general public doesn't understand the distinction
Anonymous
Post 07/30/2016 18:06     Subject: Clinton bounce 10 points
Anonymous wrote:She was really damaged by the dnc emails she's lucky to stay where she was before


She, nor any member of her csmpsig, had anything to do with the DNC emails!