Reply to I am NOT complaining- But why is the Market still not significantly down?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Financial experts don’t know either. [b]But I have excellent pattern recognition (and I am old) and this all feels like 2008.[/b]

When the fundamentals aren’t there and experts have been calling for “a correction” for years - I’m just waiting. Everyone needs to remember these same aholes on Wall Street caused 2008. Everything was “fine” until one weekend in September and then Lehman was out of business.[/quote]

Really? How so. Other than everything-seemed-fine-but-then-it-wasn't. [/quote]

Hope this helps. It was published YESTERDAY. I am familiar with the PE and banking landscape. Of course, they are gonna ignore this..till they can’t.

“For months, investors and analysts have kept a close eye on the shadowy corner of finance known as private credit, where alarm bells have stoked fears of a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis.”

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/business/private-credit-blue-owl-2008-nightcap[/quote]

The debt piling up is truly crazy when mapping out reasonable future revenue.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/7/openais-fund-raising-boom-slows-amid-mounting-debt

It's so much like 2007, except not on the residential real estate side.[/quote]NP. The thing that really cinched it for the 2008 mortgage crisis was that the borrowers were given lower interest rates by collateralizing against the thing they were borrowing to buy. When the bottom fell out on lending the collateral dropped in value and all existing loans went underwater.

Is that happening here? Seems like a mixed bag based on those news articles. The recent Blue Owl problem sounds like the loans were paying higher interest, not collateralized, but questioned for borrower solvency. Maybe for other borrowers like Oracle the loans are being collateralized by the data centers themselves? But then, those aren't the loans that are at risk.[/quote]

Yes it's absolutely happening here, the data centers (and most importantly the GPUs inside them) are the collateral. Once it becomes clear how little actual real revenue is being produced by them, their values will start tanking. Canceling expansions like Stargate are the start. Soon you will see totally new centers not getting started as planned. Then you will see ones under construction stop before being equipped because they don't want to buy the GPUs (the most expensive part by far). Then existing centers will start to get shut down because it's too expensive to run them.

https://bsky.app/profile/edzitron.com/post/3mg7ggu2yj22n[/quote]

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