Anonymous
Post 03/10/2026 15:07     Subject: Re:I am NOT complaining- But why is the Market still not significantly down?
Anonymous wrote:I feel like society has fundamentally changed and our "historical" algorithms no longer apply. The entire world is far richer today than it was in the past (even counting for inflation) and every single person (including teens) has extremely easy access to invest in stocks immediately. no more calling your broker to buy such and such. Additionally, the amount of people who now realize that investing, even small amounts can make a big difference. I don't know we will ever see a massive crash again because as soon as there is a DIP money comes flooding in from all directions because people don't want to lose out on the bounce.


It's wild how every time it becomes "this time it's different". EVERY TIME.

2008- "They aren't making more land" "People need somewhere to live" "Mortgages have the lowest default rates", etc, etc
Anonymous
Post 03/10/2026 14:29     Subject: Re:I am NOT complaining- But why is the Market still not significantly down?
I feel like society has fundamentally changed and our "historical" algorithms no longer apply. The entire world is far richer today than it was in the past (even counting for inflation) and every single person (including teens) has extremely easy access to invest in stocks immediately. no more calling your broker to buy such and such. Additionally, the amount of people who now realize that investing, even small amounts can make a big difference. I don't know we will ever see a massive crash again because as soon as there is a DIP money comes flooding in from all directions because people don't want to lose out on the bounce.
Anonymous
Post 03/07/2026 16:16     Subject: I am NOT complaining- But why is the Market still not significantly down?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:It's not 2008, because it's too obvious. Keep shorting (I know you aren't actually doing this), you'll be right eventually but probably wiped out before the actual draw down occurs. Those of us who have dealt with these "irrational" markets know it's useless to time it.


Not one poster had suggested shorting or “timing the market.” So not sure what your point is? I guess you are trying to be condescending? But here is what I love for guys like you who think you are so smart. You are a recreational investor- you are gonna be the last to know. The professionals are counting that.


I think that’s what he’s saying - no point to try game professional traders. Just DCA and buy on deeps like now.
But it’s not even a deep. I follow 7% rule for Capital preservation - my portfolio is not down even 2% and it was overweight international

This particular war is all engineered and its end within US hands when things turn really ugly.

Anonymous
Post 03/07/2026 15:15     Subject: I am NOT complaining- But why is the Market still not significantly down?
Anonymous wrote:It's not 2008, because it's too obvious. Keep shorting (I know you aren't actually doing this), you'll be right eventually but probably wiped out before the actual draw down occurs. Those of us who have dealt with these "irrational" markets know it's useless to time it.


Not one poster had suggested shorting or “timing the market.” So not sure what your point is? I guess you are trying to be condescending? But here is what I love for guys like you who think you are so smart. You are a recreational investor- you are gonna be the last to know. The professionals are counting that.
Anonymous
Post 03/07/2026 14:44     Subject: I am NOT complaining- But why is the Market still not significantly down?
It's not 2008, because it's too obvious. Keep shorting (I know you aren't actually doing this), you'll be right eventually but probably wiped out before the actual draw down occurs. Those of us who have dealt with these "irrational" markets know it's useless to time it.
Anonymous
Post 03/07/2026 14:41     Subject: I am NOT complaining- But why is the Market still not significantly down?
Anonymous wrote:People are still sitting on a lot of cash to invest.

And even though people have lost jobs, their spouses job is enough to support the family, especially when they no longer have to pay for aftercare or daycare.

I realize all that sounds privileged but it’s from what I know in our family and extended families. We’re all middle class.


I agree with this take. There’s also a lot of money in the hands of retirees. I mean my parents won’t let my kids become homeless.


Also think a financial crisis is a real possibility. It’s why I live in an home that needs lots of work. Taking on house debt feels unwise.
Anonymous
Post 03/07/2026 14:35     Subject: I am NOT complaining- But why is the Market still not significantly down?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Financial experts don’t know either. But I have excellent pattern recognition (and I am old) and this all feels like 2008.

When the fundamentals aren’t there and experts have been calling for “a correction” for years - I’m just waiting. Everyone needs to remember these same aholes on Wall Street caused 2008. Everything was “fine” until one weekend in September and then Lehman was out of business.


Really? How so. Other than everything-seemed-fine-but-then-it-wasn't.


Hope this helps. It was published YESTERDAY. I am familiar with the PE and banking landscape. Of course, they are gonna ignore this..till they can’t.

“For months, investors and analysts have kept a close eye on the shadowy corner of finance known as private credit, where alarm bells have stoked fears of a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis.”

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/business/private-credit-blue-owl-2008-nightcap


The debt piling up is truly crazy when mapping out reasonable future revenue.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/7/openais-fund-raising-boom-slows-amid-mounting-debt

It's so much like 2007, except not on the residential real estate side.
NP. The thing that really cinched it for the 2008 mortgage crisis was that the borrowers were given lower interest rates by collateralizing against the thing they were borrowing to buy. When the bottom fell out on lending the collateral dropped in value and all existing loans went underwater.

Is that happening here? Seems like a mixed bag based on those news articles. The recent Blue Owl problem sounds like the loans were paying higher interest, not collateralized, but questioned for borrower solvency. Maybe for other borrowers like Oracle the loans are being collateralized by the data centers themselves? But then, those aren't the loans that are at risk.


Yes it's absolutely happening here, the data centers (and most importantly the GPUs inside them) are the collateral. Once it becomes clear how little actual real revenue is being produced by them, their values will start tanking. Canceling expansions like Stargate are the start. Soon you will see totally new centers not getting started as planned. Then you will see ones under construction stop before being equipped because they don't want to buy the GPUs (the most expensive part by far). Then existing centers will start to get shut down because it's too expensive to run them.

https://bsky.app/profile/edzitron.com/post/3mg7ggu2yj22n
Anonymous
Post 03/07/2026 14:17     Subject: I am NOT complaining- But why is the Market still not significantly down?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Financial experts don’t know either. But I have excellent pattern recognition (and I am old) and this all feels like 2008.

When the fundamentals aren’t there and experts have been calling for “a correction” for years - I’m just waiting. Everyone needs to remember these same aholes on Wall Street caused 2008. Everything was “fine” until one weekend in September and then Lehman was out of business.


Really? How so. Other than everything-seemed-fine-but-then-it-wasn't.


Hope this helps. It was published YESTERDAY. I am familiar with the PE and banking landscape. Of course, they are gonna ignore this..till they can’t.

“For months, investors and analysts have kept a close eye on the shadowy corner of finance known as private credit, where alarm bells have stoked fears of a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis.”

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/business/private-credit-blue-owl-2008-nightcap


The debt piling up is truly crazy when mapping out reasonable future revenue.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/7/openais-fund-raising-boom-slows-amid-mounting-debt

It's so much like 2007, except not on the residential real estate side.
NP. The thing that really cinched it for the 2008 mortgage crisis was that the borrowers were given lower interest rates by collateralizing against the thing they were borrowing to buy. When the bottom fell out on lending the collateral dropped in value and all existing loans went underwater.

Is that happening here? Seems like a mixed bag based on those news articles. The recent Blue Owl problem sounds like the loans were paying higher interest, not collateralized, but questioned for borrower solvency. Maybe for other borrowers like Oracle the loans are being collateralized by the data centers themselves? But then, those aren't the loans that are at risk.
Anonymous
Post 03/07/2026 13:25     Subject: I am NOT complaining- But why is the Market still not significantly down?
Gov’t debt from all countries is out of control. Bigger long term threat than Iran.
Anonymous
Post 03/07/2026 13:03     Subject: I am NOT complaining- But why is the Market still not significantly down?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Financial experts don’t know either. But I have excellent pattern recognition (and I am old) and this all feels like 2008.

When the fundamentals aren’t there and experts have been calling for “a correction” for years - I’m just waiting. Everyone needs to remember these same aholes on Wall Street caused 2008. Everything was “fine” until one weekend in September and then Lehman was out of business.


I worked in the mortgage back securities industry back in the 2000s. The writing was on the wall for years. Go watch the Big Short for an entertaining explanation of how it wasn’t just one weekend and then everything fell apart.


You missed the point completely. In the public perception, everything fell apart and everyone took losses. Wall Street was complicit and greedy just like they always are. They couldn’t keep it going. And how nice you were part of it…


I worked in public housing for the government that used the money raised in bonds to build and renovate subsidized housing for low and very low income people. I know I think you’re witty throwing an insult but you are not a nice person. I lost my job in 2009 because of the greed. But you felt like a tough guy writing that. Do better.
Anonymous
Post 03/07/2026 13:00     Subject: I am NOT complaining- But why is the Market still not significantly down?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Financial experts don’t know either. But I have excellent pattern recognition (and I am old) and this all feels like 2008.

When the fundamentals aren’t there and experts have been calling for “a correction” for years - I’m just waiting. Everyone needs to remember these same aholes on Wall Street caused 2008. Everything was “fine” until one weekend in September and then Lehman was out of business.


Really? How so. Other than everything-seemed-fine-but-then-it-wasn't.


Hope this helps. It was published YESTERDAY. I am familiar with the PE and banking landscape. Of course, they are gonna ignore this..till they can’t.

“For months, investors and analysts have kept a close eye on the shadowy corner of finance known as private credit, where alarm bells have stoked fears of a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis.”

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/business/private-credit-blue-owl-2008-nightcap


The debt piling up is truly crazy when mapping out reasonable future revenue.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/7/openais-fund-raising-boom-slows-amid-mounting-debt

It's so much like 2007, except not on the residential real estate side.
Anonymous
Post 03/07/2026 12:11     Subject: I am NOT complaining- But why is the Market still not significantly down?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Financial experts don’t know either. But I have excellent pattern recognition (and I am old) and this all feels like 2008.

When the fundamentals aren’t there and experts have been calling for “a correction” for years - I’m just waiting. Everyone needs to remember these same aholes on Wall Street caused 2008. Everything was “fine” until one weekend in September and then Lehman was out of business.


I worked in the mortgage back securities industry back in the 2000s. The writing was on the wall for years. Go watch the Big Short for an entertaining explanation of how it wasn’t just one weekend and then everything fell apart.


You missed the point completely. In the public perception, everything fell apart and everyone took losses. Wall Street was complicit and greedy just like they always are. They couldn’t keep it going. And how nice you were part of it…
Anonymous
Post 03/07/2026 12:05     Subject: I am NOT complaining- But why is the Market still not significantly down?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Financial experts don’t know either. But I have excellent pattern recognition (and I am old) and this all feels like 2008.

When the fundamentals aren’t there and experts have been calling for “a correction” for years - I’m just waiting. Everyone needs to remember these same aholes on Wall Street caused 2008. Everything was “fine” until one weekend in September and then Lehman was out of business.


Really? How so. Other than everything-seemed-fine-but-then-it-wasn't.


Hope this helps. It was published YESTERDAY. I am familiar with the PE and banking landscape. Of course, they are gonna ignore this..till they can’t.

“For months, investors and analysts have kept a close eye on the shadowy corner of finance known as private credit, where alarm bells have stoked fears of a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis.”

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/business/private-credit-blue-owl-2008-nightcap
Anonymous
Post 03/07/2026 11:58     Subject: I am NOT complaining- But why is the Market still not significantly down?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Financial experts don’t know either. But I have excellent pattern recognition (and I am old) and this all feels like 2008.

When the fundamentals aren’t there and experts have been calling for “a correction” for years - I’m just waiting. Everyone needs to remember these same aholes on Wall Street caused 2008. Everything was “fine” until one weekend in September and then Lehman was out of business.


It’s nothing like 2008. I posted this on another thread.

Stocks can’t fall now, indexes and algos will always jump to prop it up at any drop. Look at last 3 days.

Most returns are made on a few key days, people are terrified to miss them so don’t sit out for long.

It’s called the Best Days Theory or something like that. Algorithms are constantly trying to game buying to maximize on those days, and they usually come after drops.


"They can't fall now"

Just incredible stuff. Every time people think it's different, this time it won't happen.


They won’t fall. They will stagnate for a decade, because FOMO rules the robot traders. But the big jumps up require active traders acting on actual business reports.


No, you are right, THIS time it's different. The cycle that humanity has gone through for hundreds of years has finally been stopped by the robots.


Hah, this is so true for a LOT of things.
Anonymous
Post 03/07/2026 11:07     Subject: I am NOT complaining- But why is the Market still not significantly down?
People are still sitting on a lot of cash to invest.

And even though people have lost jobs, their spouses job is enough to support the family, especially when they no longer have to pay for aftercare or daycare.

I realize all that sounds privileged but it’s from what I know in our family and extended families. We’re all middle class.