Reply to Why can't meteorologists do their job around here????!!!!!!

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Hi, actual meteorologist here, but not currently in the forecasting business.

There is simply no way to accurately forecast from days to hours out whether a storm will hit your neighborhood.  There may never be.  The atmosphere is beyond complex.  The best that can be done is to say that the conditions are right for storms in a particular region.

As far as today’s forecast, they got it right.  There was a relatively high chance at storms and the NWS had a Flash Flood watch out from early in the day.  But, it didn’t hit everybody.  It barely dripped in north Tysons.  Does that mean it is a failed forecast there?

People also misinterpret the forecast percentages.  Again, this is all based on conditions and stochasticness .  A 40% chance of rain means that if conditions were equal, your location would get rain on 4 out of 10 days.  It is a probability measure.

They did a good job today.  [/quote]

They did a terrible job yesterday with the forecast. As the day went on the chance of storms went down not up. SMH.[/quote]

You must be new here. In the summer, in DC, there is a100% chance of thunderstorms from mid-June to mid-September., between 4-8pm. Every. Single. Day. Some days are worse than others, but the risk is there every late afternoon/evening. It doesn't mean you will get hit by a thunderstorm, but there is always a 100% chance.

Where did you just move from?

[/quote]

The focast doesn't show a chance of rain a lot of times it does indeed rains that is pretty unusual. [/quote]

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