Anonymous
Post 08/16/2023 11:57     Subject: Why can't meteorologists do their job around here????!!!!!!
I have lived in many places and this is the one area that gets it wrong all them time. I do t bother to listen to the meteorologist here any longer and half-jokingly say that whatever they predict will be the opposite.
Anonymous
Post 08/16/2023 11:46     Subject: Why can't meteorologists do their job around here????!!!!!!
Anonymous wrote:OP clearly knows nothing about meteorology. And yet, she feels qualified to judge it.
DCUM in a nutshell.


It's summer vacation time. It seems that DCUM has been overrun by bored minors.
Anonymous
Post 08/15/2023 21:06     Subject: Why can't meteorologists do their job around here????!!!!!!
Haha! This thread is funny. I often complain about this very fact and think that the meteorologist flicks the hand on a spinner and tells us the weather "prediction" today. But, I have learned not to listen to the news weather report but rather Wunderground. It is strangely very accurate and it states what station the information is coming from.
Anonymous
Post 08/15/2023 19:13     Subject: Why can't meteorologists do their job around here????!!!!!!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Hi, actual meteorologist here, but not currently in the forecasting business.

There is simply no way to accurately forecast from days to hours out whether a storm will hit your neighborhood. There may never be. The atmosphere is beyond complex. The best that can be done is to say that the conditions are right for storms in a particular region.

As far as today’s forecast, they got it right. There was a relatively high chance at storms and the NWS had a Flash Flood watch out from early in the day. But, it didn’t hit everybody. It barely dripped in north Tysons. Does that mean it is a failed forecast there?

People also misinterpret the forecast percentages. Again, this is all based on conditions and stochasticness . A 40% chance of rain means that if conditions were equal, your location would get rain on 4 out of 10 days. It is a probability measure.

They did a good job today.



They did a terrible job yesterday with the forecast. As the day went on the chance of storms went down not up. SMH.


You must be new here. In the summer, in DC, there is a100% chance of thunderstorms from mid-June to mid-September., between 4-8pm. Every. Single. Day. Some days are worse than others, but the risk is there every late afternoon/evening. It doesn't mean you will get hit by a thunderstorm, but there is always a 100% chance.

Where did you just move from?




The focast doesn't show a chance of rain a lot of times it does indeed rains that is pretty unusual.


Right. Ignore the forecast on your app - there is a chance of thunderstorms, every single day in the summer. That's just how summer works in DC. That's also just how thunderstorms work - maybe watch a few youtube videos on thunderstorms?
Anonymous
Post 08/15/2023 17:01     Subject: Why can't meteorologists do their job around here????!!!!!!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Hi, actual meteorologist here, but not currently in the forecasting business.

There is simply no way to accurately forecast from days to hours out whether a storm will hit your neighborhood. There may never be. The atmosphere is beyond complex. The best that can be done is to say that the conditions are right for storms in a particular region.

As far as today’s forecast, they got it right. There was a relatively high chance at storms and the NWS had a Flash Flood watch out from early in the day. But, it didn’t hit everybody. It barely dripped in north Tysons. Does that mean it is a failed forecast there?

People also misinterpret the forecast percentages. Again, this is all based on conditions and stochasticness . A 40% chance of rain means that if conditions were equal, your location would get rain on 4 out of 10 days. It is a probability measure.

They did a good job today.



They did a terrible job yesterday with the forecast. As the day went on the chance of storms went down not up. SMH.


Where are you getting your forecasts from?
Anonymous
Post 08/15/2023 16:19     Subject: Why can't meteorologists do their job around here????!!!!!!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Hi, actual meteorologist here, but not currently in the forecasting business.

There is simply no way to accurately forecast from days to hours out whether a storm will hit your neighborhood. There may never be. The atmosphere is beyond complex. The best that can be done is to say that the conditions are right for storms in a particular region.

As far as today’s forecast, they got it right. There was a relatively high chance at storms and the NWS had a Flash Flood watch out from early in the day. But, it didn’t hit everybody. It barely dripped in north Tysons. Does that mean it is a failed forecast there?

People also misinterpret the forecast percentages. Again, this is all based on conditions and stochasticness . A 40% chance of rain means that if conditions were equal, your location would get rain on 4 out of 10 days. It is a probability measure.

They did a good job today.



They did a terrible job yesterday with the forecast. As the day went on the chance of storms went down not up. SMH.


You must be new here. In the summer, in DC, there is a100% chance of thunderstorms from mid-June to mid-September., between 4-8pm. Every. Single. Day. Some days are worse than others, but the risk is there every late afternoon/evening. It doesn't mean you will get hit by a thunderstorm, but there is always a 100% chance.

Where did you just move from?




The focast doesn't show a chance of rain a lot of times it does indeed rains that is pretty unusual.
Anonymous
Post 08/15/2023 12:20     Subject: Why can't meteorologists do their job around here????!!!!!!
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Hi, actual meteorologist here, but not currently in the forecasting business.

There is simply no way to accurately forecast from days to hours out whether a storm will hit your neighborhood. There may never be. The atmosphere is beyond complex. The best that can be done is to say that the conditions are right for storms in a particular region.

As far as today’s forecast, they got it right. There was a relatively high chance at storms and the NWS had a Flash Flood watch out from early in the day. But, it didn’t hit everybody. It barely dripped in north Tysons. Does that mean it is a failed forecast there?

People also misinterpret the forecast percentages. Again, this is all based on conditions and stochasticness . A 40% chance of rain means that if conditions were equal, your location would get rain on 4 out of 10 days. It is a probability measure.

They did a good job today.



They did a terrible job yesterday with the forecast. As the day went on the chance of storms went down not up. SMH.


You must be new here. In the summer, in DC, there is a100% chance of thunderstorms from mid-June to mid-September., between 4-8pm. Every. Single. Day. Some days are worse than others, but the risk is there every late afternoon/evening. It doesn't mean you will get hit by a thunderstorm, but there is always a 100% chance.

Where did you just move from?