Reply to Bowser: "We have flattened the curve in an amazing way"

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Reply to "Bowser: "We have flattened the curve in an amazing way""

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]You don’t need a model to flatten the curve. You can just graph the observed cases and see if it’s flattening.[/quote]

There's a big data problem though. When you count "observed cases," you can look at one of two numbers, either people who test positive or people who die. The problem with extrapolating from positive tests is that testing is so scattershot still. The number of positive tests is more a function of the number of people being tested than the infection rate, because the number of people being tested is so low. The number of deaths is a better measure, but it suffers from a time lag, it's typically a little under four weeks from exposure to death in fatal cases. So today's death rate tells us about the exposure rate four weeks ago, not now.

Before drawing any conclusions there needs to be widespread testing, and not just of the sick. On the USS Teddy Roosevelt 60% of those who tested positive had no symptoms. Sadly, there doesn't seem to be any plan for widespread testing, or even preparations for a plan for widespread testing, or even discussions about preparations for a plan for widespread testing.[/quote]

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