Anonymous wrote:I’m not sure the right forum to post this.

I am an essential worker. I live in VA and commute to SE.

For weeks now traffic has been almost non-existent. For the past two days on my way home at 4:00 I noticed that about twice as many cars as had been usual were on the road. I had to stop at Giant and the parking lot was full. People in VA anyway seem to be back out now and doing things, going places and getting restless.

I am afraid that people are jumping the gun under the presumption that the curve has been flattened.

Interesting. I would say based on observation that the vehicle traffic in and near our NW Washington neighborhood has more than doubled this week versus last.

I’m not sure the right forum to post this.

I am an essential worker. I live in VA and commute to SE.

For weeks now traffic has been almost non-existent. For the past two days on my way home at 4:00 I noticed that about twice as many cars as had been usual were on the road. I had to stop at Giant and the parking lot was full. People in VA anyway seem to be back out now and doing things, going places and getting restless.

I am afraid that people are jumping the gun under the presumption that the curve has been flattened.

With so much uncertainty, you’re almost certainly going to miss on hospital capacity one way or the other. You’re going to have too little or too much, by a lot because the uncertainty swings so far.

I’m glad we have too much. It’s because people have done much better on social distancing than we thought. I think that’s largely because we have so much technology. Enough people can work and stay in touch and entertain themselves that they have stayed home and that has limited the spread of the virus for the people who do have to be out.

I doubt we’ll build extra hospitals in a few months because we’ll know more. That’s how it goes.

Anonymous wrote:If the curve has flattened, why was Bowser saying just recently that the peak would be later this summer ? And why is DC still having a field hospital built at the convention center? I assume that The answer to the first question is that she has never been fully engaged with this like other regional leaders. The answer to the second question may be that she has given the contract to one of her poorly qualified 8a crony firms to “manage.” We hope it isn’t the same firm that is running the quarantine center at the Days Inn near Van Ness !

I really really hope somebody is looking into who is profiting from this field hospital. There is no way this isn't shady.

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Anonymous wrote:This whole thing is a disgrace. All the models have been completely wrong. To call them "science" is laughable. They are nothing more than spitballs. To blow up families' livelihoods over these guesses is shameful. We need to get back to work.

You can stomp your feet all you want. The virus doesn't care.

That poster must be a Fox viewer. Sad, really, for PP to be living in such a bubble of lies.
You think PP understands he’s just a pawn of the Murdochs agenda?

Calling everyone a Trumper who does not think we should quarantine for 18 months is just shameful. We should be coming together to find the best way forward. It is obviously not possible to shelter for years while we wait for a vaccine. We need to work together to find solutions, and your tone is anathema to any progress.

Fortunately nobody is doing that.

Yes, please stop spinning this false narrative that anyone has been asked to quarantine for 18 months.

If the curve has flattened, why was Bowser saying just recently that the peak would be later this summer ? And why is DC still having a field hospital built at the convention center? I assume that The answer to the first question is that she has never been fully engaged with this like other regional leaders. The answer to the second question may be that she has given the contract to one of her poorly qualified 8a crony firms to “manage.” We hope it isn’t the same firm that is running the quarantine center at the Days Inn near Van Ness !

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Anonymous wrote:This whole thing is a disgrace. All the models have been completely wrong. To call them "science" is laughable. They are nothing more than spitballs. To blow up families' livelihoods over these guesses is shameful. We need to get back to work.

Disgrace! You know whose favorite word that is!

I'm no Trumper. I went door to door for Obama endlessly thanks. Calling anyone a Trumper who has a different take on information is not helpful to our society right now. It is disgraceful to destroy livelihoods based on numbers that are just totally random guesses (the "models"). If you owned a restaurant, your family would be losing everything right now. I don't own a restaurant, but I'm a compassionate person capable of empathy, unlike you, I guess.

You can't possibly not understand that the models and the blowing up families livelihoods are the REASON the curve looks the way it does now, right? The models weren't wrong, they got us to do what we needed to do to arrive at the model we're in now, which is flatter, but still not flat enough.

We are close.

Yes, I agree. We should continue waiting two weeks until all that is left of our society is charred rubble. I'm sure you are a government employee enjoying the downtime. For others, this is a terrifying end to their families livlihoods.

“Don’t speculate what I am!” [Stamps foot.] “But I can speculate what YOU are!”

Hypocrite.

Np. I'd like to see what your opinion would be if you were one of those whose livelihood has been affected. Dh and I have both had pay cuts and he's an essential worker who still has to risk his (and our family's) health every day. Assuming the pay cuts are the worst financial blow and we don't get sick, we can continue to pay our bills for maybe 6 months. There is no way we can do this much longer.

It's not like the choice is between social distancing and a robust economy. If we "open up" too early, the drastic increase in illness and deaths will have an even WORSE effect on the economy. And consumers aren't going to go out to spend money at restaurants/bowling alleys if they don't have confidence in our public health systems -- that means a strong national testing/tracing infrastructure, hospitals with the capacity to treat all the patients as necessary, and data that shows a sustained decline in spread. We don't have any of those yet. Focus your energy on getting that in place, if you really want to speed things up.

So there *is* currently no option that allows us to restart the economy. Anyone telling you different is lying.

Pretty much everyone will be in Phase 1 opening by mid-May.

Anonymous wrote:There were 15 new deaths reported today, matching the highest day yet. That's not consistent with the curve being flattened.

Since it matched the highest day yes that could be a flat line.

There were 15 new deaths reported today, matching the highest day yet. That's not consistent with the curve being flattened.

Anonymous wrote:You don’t need a model to flatten the curve. You can just graph the observed cases and see if it’s flattening.

There's a big data problem though. When you count "observed cases," you can look at one of two numbers, either people who test positive or people who die. The problem with extrapolating from positive tests is that testing is so scattershot still. The number of positive tests is more a function of the number of people being tested than the infection rate, because the number of people being tested is so low. The number of deaths is a better measure, but it suffers from a time lag, it's typically a little under four weeks from exposure to death in fatal cases. So today's death rate tells us about the exposure rate four weeks ago, not now.

Before drawing any conclusions there needs to be widespread testing, and not just of the sick. On the USS Teddy Roosevelt 60% of those who tested positive had no symptoms. Sadly, there doesn't seem to be any plan for widespread testing, or even preparations for a plan for widespread testing, or even discussions about preparations for a plan for widespread testing.

Anonymous wrote:I honestly don't get what people are so pissed about. This was the whole POINT of social distancing. The predictions were based on what would happen without social distancing. Now we're social distancing. It's working. This is good news, not evidence of incompetence or conspiracy. And it's definitely not a reason to let up now.

The Double Dutch bus?

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Anonymous wrote:This whole thing is a disgrace. All the models have been completely wrong. To call them "science" is laughable. They are nothing more than spitballs. To blow up families' livelihoods over these guesses is shameful. We need to get back to work.

Disgrace! You know whose favorite word that is!

I'm no Trumper. I went door to door for Obama endlessly thanks. Calling anyone a Trumper who has a different take on information is not helpful to our society right now. It is disgraceful to destroy livelihoods based on numbers that are just totally random guesses (the "models"). If you owned a restaurant, your family would be losing everything right now. I don't own a restaurant, but I'm a compassionate person capable of empathy, unlike you, I guess.

You can't possibly not understand that the models and the blowing up families livelihoods are the REASON the curve looks the way it does now, right? The models weren't wrong, they got us to do what we needed to do to arrive at the model we're in now, which is flatter, but still not flat enough.

We are close.

Yes, I agree. We should continue waiting two weeks until all that is left of our society is charred rubble. I'm sure you are a government employee enjoying the downtime. For others, this is a terrifying end to their families livlihoods.

“Don’t speculate what I am!” [Stamps foot.] “But I can speculate what YOU are!”

Hypocrite.

Np. I'd like to see what your opinion would be if you were one of those whose livelihood has been affected. Dh and I have both had pay cuts and he's an essential worker who still has to risk his (and our family's) health every day. Assuming the pay cuts are the worst financial blow and we don't get sick, we can continue to pay our bills for maybe 6 months. There is no way we can do this much longer.

It's not like the choice is between social distancing and a robust economy. If we "open up" too early, the drastic increase in illness and deaths will have an even WORSE effect on the economy. And consumers aren't going to go out to spend money at restaurants/bowling alleys if they don't have confidence in our public health systems -- that means a strong national testing/tracing infrastructure, hospitals with the capacity to treat all the patients as necessary, and data that shows a sustained decline in spread. We don't have any of those yet. Focus your energy on getting that in place, if you really want to speed things up.

So there *is* currently no option that allows us to restart the economy. Anyone telling you different is lying.

You don't know anything more than anyone else, including the government and the "experts". I have been 2 weeked to death.

Right - no one knows. This is a brand new virus. We have no previous data. So models and predictions are going to change as we get more data. Of COURSE we're being "two weeked". That's how it's supposed to work.

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Anonymous wrote:This whole thing is a disgrace. All the models have been completely wrong. To call them "science" is laughable. They are nothing more than spitballs. To blow up families' livelihoods over these guesses is shameful. We need to get back to work.

Disgrace! You know whose favorite word that is!

I'm no Trumper. I went door to door for Obama endlessly thanks. Calling anyone a Trumper who has a different take on information is not helpful to our society right now. It is disgraceful to destroy livelihoods based on numbers that are just totally random guesses (the "models"). If you owned a restaurant, your family would be losing everything right now. I don't own a restaurant, but I'm a compassionate person capable of empathy, unlike you, I guess.

You can't possibly not understand that the models and the blowing up families livelihoods are the REASON the curve looks the way it does now, right? The models weren't wrong, they got us to do what we needed to do to arrive at the model we're in now, which is flatter, but still not flat enough.

We are close.

Yes, I agree. We should continue waiting two weeks until all that is left of our society is charred rubble. I'm sure you are a government employee enjoying the downtime. For others, this is a terrifying end to their families livlihoods.

“Don’t speculate what I am!” [Stamps foot.] “But I can speculate what YOU are!”

Hypocrite.

Np. I'd like to see what your opinion would be if you were one of those whose livelihood has been affected. Dh and I have both had pay cuts and he's an essential worker who still has to risk his (and our family's) health every day. Assuming the pay cuts are the worst financial blow and we don't get sick, we can continue to pay our bills for maybe 6 months. There is no way we can do this much longer.

It's not like the choice is between social distancing and a robust economy. If we "open up" too early, the drastic increase in illness and deaths will have an even WORSE effect on the economy. And consumers aren't going to go out to spend money at restaurants/bowling alleys if they don't have confidence in our public health systems -- that means a strong national testing/tracing infrastructure, hospitals with the capacity to treat all the patients as necessary, and data that shows a sustained decline in spread. We don't have any of those yet. Focus your energy on getting that in place, if you really want to speed things up.

So there *is* currently no option that allows us to restart the economy. Anyone telling you different is lying.

You don't know anything more than anyone else, including the government and the "experts". I have been 2 weeked to death.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This whole thing is a disgrace. All the models have been completely wrong. To call them "science" is laughable. They are nothing more than spitballs. To blow up families' livelihoods over these guesses is shameful. We need to get back to work.

Disgrace! You know whose favorite word that is!

I'm no Trumper. I went door to door for Obama endlessly thanks. Calling anyone a Trumper who has a different take on information is not helpful to our society right now. It is disgraceful to destroy livelihoods based on numbers that are just totally random guesses (the "models"). If you owned a restaurant, your family would be losing everything right now. I don't own a restaurant, but I'm a compassionate person capable of empathy, unlike you, I guess.

You can't possibly not understand that the models and the blowing up families livelihoods are the REASON the curve looks the way it does now, right? The models weren't wrong, they got us to do what we needed to do to arrive at the model we're in now, which is flatter, but still not flat enough.

We are close.

Yes, I agree. We should continue waiting two weeks until all that is left of our society is charred rubble. I'm sure you are a government employee enjoying the downtime. For others, this is a terrifying end to their families livlihoods.

“Don’t speculate what I am!” [Stamps foot.] “But I can speculate what YOU are!”

Hypocrite.

Np. I'd like to see what your opinion would be if you were one of those whose livelihood has been affected. Dh and I have both had pay cuts and he's an essential worker who still has to risk his (and our family's) health every day. Assuming the pay cuts are the worst financial blow and we don't get sick, we can continue to pay our bills for maybe 6 months. There is no way we can do this much longer.

It's not like the choice is between social distancing and a robust economy. If we "open up" too early, the drastic increase in illness and deaths will have an even WORSE effect on the economy. And consumers aren't going to go out to spend money at restaurants/bowling alleys if they don't have confidence in our public health systems -- that means a strong national testing/tracing infrastructure, hospitals with the capacity to treat all the patients as necessary, and data that shows a sustained decline in spread. We don't have any of those yet. Focus your energy on getting that in place, if you really want to speed things up.

So there *is* currently no option that allows us to restart the economy. Anyone telling you different is lying.

I honestly don't get what people are so pissed about. This was the whole POINT of social distancing. The predictions were based on what would happen without social distancing. Now we're social distancing. It's working. This is good news, not evidence of incompetence or conspiracy. And it's definitely not a reason to let up now.