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[quote=Anonymous]It looks like I hit a nerve.  Not sure why, but someone is helping keep Russian secrets by deleting these news article posts?  They're certainly not U.S. secrets, but I can see how in Russia this would be hot stuff.  Question is why anyone be working in Russia's bests interests?

"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve.  For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/

And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated.  I think it's closer to two.

"As of January 1, 2023, retirees in Russia received a gross pension of approximately 19.3 thousand Russian rubles on average, or 236 U.S. dollars per month at the exchange rate as of April 18, 2023. The amount of retirement benefits increased by roughly 2,438 Russian rubles compared to the previous year"
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093950/average-monthly-retirement-benefit-value-russia/#:~:text=As%20of%20January%201%2C%202023,compared%20to%20the%20previous%20year.

That's a 12% increase in one year.  However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount?  I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.

"The bank also lowered its year-end inflation forecast to 4.5-6.5% from 5.0-7.0%"
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russian-central-bank-keeps-key-interest-rate-75-2023-04-28/#:~:text=The%20bank%20also%20lowered%20its,%2447%20billion%20from%20%2466%20billion.

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Statistic/1090000/1093950-blank-754.png

If in April (three months ago) 19,300 Rub was worth USD$236, today it's worth USD$209.90, according to today's exchange rate.

In this clip of a Russian grocery store taken this week, the photographer was careful to not show the meat or seafood section.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yeNbBWBSSvQ

The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable.  However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!).  Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18.  That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month.  Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.

Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity.  That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.

"In 2021, 38,551 ships transited Bosphorus of the Turkish Straights (down from 43,999 in 2018)."
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1251644/number-of-transits-through-the-turkish-straits/

"COMMERCIAL VESSELS MADE 10,550 CALLS TO BLACK SEA PORTS IN RUSSIA, TURKEY, BULGARIA, ROMANIA, UKRAINE, GEORGIA AND MOLDOVA IN THE SECOND QUARTER ACCORDING TO VESSEL TRACKING DATA FROM LLOYD’S LIST INTELLIGENCE."
https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1141687/Black-Sea-arrivals-rising-amid-changing-trade-dynamics

Q2 2022
1. Russia	5043
2. Romania	2359
3. Turkey	1167
4. Bulgaria	880
5. Ukraine	610
6. Georgia	354
7. Moldova	137

The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/-/media/lloyds-list/images/ukraine-russia-conflict/black_sea.jpg

I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse?  Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily.  Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.

UPDATE TO THE OLDER INFO:

"According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Russian inflation expectations jumped to 11.1% in July. Today I measure inflation at 60%/yr, ~5.5x the central bank's data point. The expectations appear to be way too optimistic"
https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/russian-inflation-is-raging-at-60-not-the-reported-3-6-thanks-to-the-rubles-freefall-top-economist-steve-hanke-says/articleshow/102080351.cms#:~:text=Based%20on%20his%20own%20calculations,jumped%20to%2011.1%25%20in%20July.

So the earlier comments I made a few days ago about Russian inflation >20% and possibly even in hyper-inflation were spot-on.

Examples of DCUMS threads that were deleted:
Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable , posted on Political Discussion, at 07/22/2023 08:54
Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable , posted on Political Discussion, at 07/22/2023 23:04 
Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable , posted on Political Discussion, at 07/22/2023 23:22 
Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable , posted on Political Discussion, at 07/23/2023 19:22
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