Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I do not see Putin living more than 2 years. After he is whacked by his own people Russia will pull back and negotiate to give back crimea, not face war crimes and not pay reparations. Or they keep crimea and let some officers take the fall/be hung for war crimes over the years.

I assume no one really hangs anyone anymore, so whatever version of what the nazis got by the new standards.

I still enjoy the footage of nazis hanging….would be cool to see some Russians swing too if that is still a form of punishment for war crimes.

And then everyone clapped. I'm guessing your a NAFO fella right?

Yeah, that is not English Ivan.

Nazis swinging from a noose or Russians convicted of war crimes are equally fun.

Relish your Russian dominion of being the Nazi 2.0.
No ideology, no identity; just purest of the pure criminal sociopathic parasitic form of life.

Luckily the real humans have a big can of Raid to deal with you.

It looks like I hit a nerve. Not sure why, but someone is helping keep Russian secrets by deleting these news article posts? They're certainly not U.S. secrets, but I can see how in Russia this would be hot stuff. Question is why anyone be working in Russia's bests interests?

"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve. For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/

And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated. I think it's closer to two.

"As of January 1, 2023, retirees in Russia received a gross pension of approximately 19.3 thousand Russian rubles on average, or 236 U.S. dollars per month at the exchange rate as of April 18, 2023. The amount of retirement benefits increased by roughly 2,438 Russian rubles compared to the previous year"
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093950/average-monthly-retirement-benefit-value-russia/#:~:text=As%20of%20January%201%2C%202023,compared%20to%20the%20previous%20year.

That's a 12% increase in one year. However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount? I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.

"The bank also lowered its year-end inflation forecast to 4.5-6.5% from 5.0-7.0%"
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russian-central-bank-keeps-key-interest-rate-75-2023-04-28/#:~:text=The%20bank%20also%20lowered%20its,%2447%20billion%20from%20%2466%20billion.

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Statistic/1090000/1093950-blank-754.png

If in April (three months ago) 19,300 Rub was worth USD$236, today it's worth USD$209.90, according to today's exchange rate.

In this clip of a Russian grocery store taken this week, the photographer was careful to not show the meat or seafood section.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yeNbBWBSSvQ

The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable. However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!). Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18. That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month. Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.

Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity. That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.

"In 2021, 38,551 ships transited Bosphorus of the Turkish Straights (down from 43,999 in 2018)."
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1251644/number-of-transits-through-the-turkish-straits/

"COMMERCIAL VESSELS MADE 10,550 CALLS TO BLACK SEA PORTS IN RUSSIA, TURKEY, BULGARIA, ROMANIA, UKRAINE, GEORGIA AND MOLDOVA IN THE SECOND QUARTER ACCORDING TO VESSEL TRACKING DATA FROM LLOYD’S LIST INTELLIGENCE."
https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1141687/Black-Sea-arrivals-rising-amid-changing-trade-dynamics

Q2 2022
1. Russia 5043
2. Romania 2359
3. Turkey 1167
4. Bulgaria 880
5. Ukraine 610
6. Georgia 354
7. Moldova 137

The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/-/media/lloyds-list/images/ukraine-russia-conflict/black_sea.jpg

I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse? Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily. Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.

UPDATE TO THE OLDER INFO:

"According to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Russian inflation expectations jumped to 11.1% in July. Today I measure inflation at 60%/yr, ~5.5x the central bank's data point. The expectations appear to be way too optimistic"
https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/russian-inflation-is-raging-at-60-not-the-reported-3-6-thanks-to-the-rubles-freefall-top-economist-steve-hanke-says/articleshow/102080351.cms#:~:text=Based%20on%20his%20own%20calculations,jumped%20to%2011.1%25%20in%20July.

So the earlier comments I made a few days ago about Russian inflation >20% and possibly even in hyper-inflation were spot-on.

Examples of DCUMS threads that were deleted:
Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable , posted on Political Discussion, at 07/22/2023 08:54
Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable , posted on Political Discussion, at 07/22/2023 23:04
Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable , posted on Political Discussion, at 07/22/2023 23:22
Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable , posted on Political Discussion, at 07/23/2023 19:22

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Per WSJ reporting, Western military advisors knew that the Ukrainian counter offensive was doomed from the start. The lack of air support and the inability to limit Russian air power meant a high-cost in men and armor with little chance of success. So why did everyone insist on a counter-offensive?

RT link for non-WSJ subscribers: https://www.rt.com/russia/580159-ukraine-not-ready-counteroffensive/

You don’t have to be a military advisor to know that Ukraine doesn’t have the capacity or capability for a dramatic counter-offensive. Stalemate and negotiation.

What's Russia's long-term plan? They're going to keep that new border manned for years? How is that possible?

Push to the dneiper and cut off Black Sea access and turn a “new ukr” into a land locked state around Lvov

Magical thinking. How and with what? Russia has not been able to assert air superiority and has been losing pilots. Russian warships in the Black Sea have been threatened and repeatedly evacuated from Sevastopol. Russian artillery has been destroyed at an eye-popping rate. Russian armor and infantry are demoralized and being decimated. Not that Russia has been able to effectively mount any effective combined arms campaign to begin with. Russian special forces have been getting decimated, along with Kadyrovites and others. Wagner was the only one to have any meaningful advance in the last year, but now Wagner is out of the game.

Keep dreaming. Russia defeated Napoleon's France and Hitler's Nazi Germany. They won't lose this war.

Those two invaded Russia. I concede NATO will be unable to conquer Russia.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meanwhile as the bots claim it's all a failure, Ukraine just passed a milestone of having reclaimed 50% of its lands previously invaded and occupied by Russia. Meanwhile Russian targets all the way in Moscow are being blown up by Ukrainian drones. Russia continues to lose.

And what ridiculous contortions did you go through to reach that milestone?

"Ridiculous contortions?" Dude, even pro-Russian telegram channels and milbloggers have been acknowledging for the last month that Ukraine has been making gains in multiple directions all along the front.

The only person here engaging in ridiculous contortions is you, trying to stick your head in the sand and refuse to acknowledge what the Russian army knows.

Show your numerator and denominator.

1 over 2

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Per WSJ reporting, Western military advisors knew that the Ukrainian counter offensive was doomed from the start. The lack of air support and the inability to limit Russian air power meant a high-cost in men and armor with little chance of success. So why did everyone insist on a counter-offensive?

RT link for non-WSJ subscribers: https://www.rt.com/russia/580159-ukraine-not-ready-counteroffensive/

You don’t have to be a military advisor to know that Ukraine doesn’t have the capacity or capability for a dramatic counter-offensive. Stalemate and negotiation.

What's Russia's long-term plan? They're going to keep that new border manned for years? How is that possible?

Push to the dneiper and cut off Black Sea access and turn a “new ukr” into a land locked state around Lvov

Magical thinking. How and with what? Russia has not been able to assert air superiority and has been losing pilots. Russian warships in the Black Sea have been threatened and repeatedly evacuated from Sevastopol. Russian artillery has been destroyed at an eye-popping rate. Russian armor and infantry are demoralized and being decimated. Not that Russia has been able to effectively mount any effective combined arms campaign to begin with. Russian special forces have been getting decimated, along with Kadyrovites and others. Wagner was the only one to have any meaningful advance in the last year, but now Wagner is out of the game.

Keep dreaming. Russia defeated Napoleon's France and Hitler's Nazi Germany. They won't lose this war.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meanwhile as the bots claim it's all a failure, Ukraine just passed a milestone of having reclaimed 50% of its lands previously invaded and occupied by Russia. Meanwhile Russian targets all the way in Moscow are being blown up by Ukrainian drones. Russia continues to lose.

And what ridiculous contortions did you go through to reach that milestone?

"Ridiculous contortions?" Dude, even pro-Russian telegram channels and milbloggers have been acknowledging for the last month that Ukraine has been making gains in multiple directions all along the front.

The only person here engaging in ridiculous contortions is you, trying to stick your head in the sand and refuse to acknowledge what the Russian army knows.

Show your numerator and denominator.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Per WSJ reporting, Western military advisors knew that the Ukrainian counter offensive was doomed from the start. The lack of air support and the inability to limit Russian air power meant a high-cost in men and armor with little chance of success. So why did everyone insist on a counter-offensive?

RT link for non-WSJ subscribers: https://www.rt.com/russia/580159-ukraine-not-ready-counteroffensive/

You don’t have to be a military advisor to know that Ukraine doesn’t have the capacity or capability for a dramatic counter-offensive. Stalemate and negotiation.

What's Russia's long-term plan? They're going to keep that new border manned for years? How is that possible?

Push to the dneiper and cut off Black Sea access and turn a “new ukr” into a land locked state around Lvov

Magical thinking. How and with what? Russia has not been able to assert air superiority and has been losing pilots. Russian warships in the Black Sea have been threatened and repeatedly evacuated from Sevastopol. Russian artillery has been destroyed at an eye-popping rate. Russian armor and infantry are demoralized and being decimated. Not that Russia has been able to effectively mount any effective combined arms campaign to begin with. Russian special forces have been getting decimated, along with Kadyrovites and others. Wagner was the only one to have any meaningful advance in the last year, but now Wagner is out of the game.

I'm not so certain Wagner is out, with Putin meeting with the supposed traitor Prigozhin. Perhaps it is all a fake to have Wagner come in from Belarus.
Besides that, Russia has had a 50 mile corridor to the sea connecting all the way to Crimea for over a year. Ukraine has been pretty close to landlocked for awhile, with just a little area near Odessa.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meanwhile as the bots claim it's all a failure, Ukraine just passed a milestone of having reclaimed 50% of its lands previously invaded and occupied by Russia. Meanwhile Russian targets all the way in Moscow are being blown up by Ukrainian drones. Russia continues to lose.

And what ridiculous contortions did you go through to reach that milestone?

"Ridiculous contortions?" Dude, even pro-Russian telegram channels and milbloggers have been acknowledging for the last month that Ukraine has been making gains in multiple directions all along the front.

The only person here engaging in ridiculous contortions is you, trying to stick your head in the sand and refuse to acknowledge what the Russian army knows.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Per WSJ reporting, Western military advisors knew that the Ukrainian counter offensive was doomed from the start. The lack of air support and the inability to limit Russian air power meant a high-cost in men and armor with little chance of success. So why did everyone insist on a counter-offensive?

RT link for non-WSJ subscribers: https://www.rt.com/russia/580159-ukraine-not-ready-counteroffensive/

You don’t have to be a military advisor to know that Ukraine doesn’t have the capacity or capability for a dramatic counter-offensive. Stalemate and negotiation.

What's Russia's long-term plan? They're going to keep that new border manned for years? How is that possible?

Push to the dneiper and cut off Black Sea access and turn a “new ukr” into a land locked state around Lvov

Magical thinking. How and with what? Russia has not been able to assert air superiority and has been losing pilots. Russian warships in the Black Sea have been threatened and repeatedly evacuated from Sevastopol. Russian artillery has been destroyed at an eye-popping rate. Russian armor and infantry are demoralized and being decimated. Not that Russia has been able to effectively mount any effective combined arms campaign to begin with. Russian special forces have been getting decimated, along with Kadyrovites and others. Wagner was the only one to have any meaningful advance in the last year, but now Wagner is out of the game.

Another instalment in the logical pretzels of "the Russian army is falling apart, we need kazillions of dollars to fight it!"

Maybe one day Russia will have an army strong enough to capture a neighboring capital. Maybe not.

Anonymous wrote:I do not see Putin living more than 2 years. After he is whacked by his own people Russia will pull back and negotiate to give back crimea, not face war crimes and not pay reparations. Or they keep crimea and let some officers take the fall/be hung for war crimes over the years.

I assume no one really hangs anyone anymore, so whatever version of what the nazis got by the new standards.

I still enjoy the footage of nazis hanging….would be cool to see some Russians swing too if that is still a form of punishment for war crimes.

And then everyone clapped. I'm guessing your a NAFO fella right?

I do not see Putin living more than 2 years. After he is whacked by his own people Russia will pull back and negotiate to give back crimea, not face war crimes and not pay reparations. Or they keep crimea and let some officers take the fall/be hung for war crimes over the years.

I assume no one really hangs anyone anymore, so whatever version of what the nazis got by the new standards.

I still enjoy the footage of nazis hanging….would be cool to see some Russians swing too if that is still a form of punishment for war crimes.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Per WSJ reporting, Western military advisors knew that the Ukrainian counter offensive was doomed from the start. The lack of air support and the inability to limit Russian air power meant a high-cost in men and armor with little chance of success. So why did everyone insist on a counter-offensive?

RT link for non-WSJ subscribers: https://www.rt.com/russia/580159-ukraine-not-ready-counteroffensive/

You don’t have to be a military advisor to know that Ukraine doesn’t have the capacity or capability for a dramatic counter-offensive. Stalemate and negotiation.

What's Russia's long-term plan? They're going to keep that new border manned for years? How is that possible?

Push to the dneiper and cut off Black Sea access and turn a “new ukr” into a land locked state around Lvov

Magical thinking. How and with what? Russia has not been able to assert air superiority and has been losing pilots. Russian warships in the Black Sea have been threatened and repeatedly evacuated from Sevastopol. Russian artillery has been destroyed at an eye-popping rate. Russian armor and infantry are demoralized and being decimated. Not that Russia has been able to effectively mount any effective combined arms campaign to begin with. Russian special forces have been getting decimated, along with Kadyrovites and others. Wagner was the only one to have any meaningful advance in the last year, but now Wagner is out of the game.

Another instalment in the logical pretzels of "the Russian army is falling apart, we need kazillions of dollars to fight it!"

Anonymous wrote:Meanwhile as the bots claim it's all a failure, Ukraine just passed a milestone of having reclaimed 50% of its lands previously invaded and occupied by Russia. Meanwhile Russian targets all the way in Moscow are being blown up by Ukrainian drones. Russia continues to lose.

And what ridiculous contortions did you go through to reach that milestone?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Per WSJ reporting, Western military advisors knew that the Ukrainian counter offensive was doomed from the start. The lack of air support and the inability to limit Russian air power meant a high-cost in men and armor with little chance of success. So why did everyone insist on a counter-offensive?

RT link for non-WSJ subscribers: https://www.rt.com/russia/580159-ukraine-not-ready-counteroffensive/

You don’t have to be a military advisor to know that Ukraine doesn’t have the capacity or capability for a dramatic counter-offensive. Stalemate and negotiation.

What's Russia's long-term plan? They're going to keep that new border manned for years? How is that possible?

Push to the dneiper and cut off Black Sea access and turn a “new ukr” into a land locked state around Lvov

Magical thinking. How and with what? Russia has not been able to assert air superiority and has been losing pilots. Russian warships in the Black Sea have been threatened and repeatedly evacuated from Sevastopol. Russian artillery has been destroyed at an eye-popping rate. Russian armor and infantry are demoralized and being decimated. Not that Russia has been able to effectively mount any effective combined arms campaign to begin with. Russian special forces have been getting decimated, along with Kadyrovites and others. Wagner was the only one to have any meaningful advance in the last year, but now Wagner is out of the game.

Not to mention, many key Russian supply routes and depots have been compromised or destroyed outright.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Per WSJ reporting, Western military advisors knew that the Ukrainian counter offensive was doomed from the start. The lack of air support and the inability to limit Russian air power meant a high-cost in men and armor with little chance of success. So why did everyone insist on a counter-offensive?

RT link for non-WSJ subscribers: https://www.rt.com/russia/580159-ukraine-not-ready-counteroffensive/

You don’t have to be a military advisor to know that Ukraine doesn’t have the capacity or capability for a dramatic counter-offensive. Stalemate and negotiation.

What's Russia's long-term plan? They're going to keep that new border manned for years? How is that possible?

Push to the dneiper and cut off Black Sea access and turn a “new ukr” into a land locked state around Lvov

Magical thinking. How and with what? Russia has not been able to assert air superiority and has been losing pilots. Russian warships in the Black Sea have been threatened and repeatedly evacuated from Sevastopol. Russian artillery has been destroyed at an eye-popping rate. Russian armor and infantry are demoralized and being decimated. Not that Russia has been able to effectively mount any effective combined arms campaign to begin with. Russian special forces have been getting decimated, along with Kadyrovites and others. Wagner was the only one to have any meaningful advance in the last year, but now Wagner is out of the game.