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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Russia is about to make an “incursion” to Ukraine, mark my words.
Probably within 2 days.[/quote]

Why do you think that?  My current thinking is that nothing will happen.  That the Russian troops will go home but the supplies stay in place and they declare some sort of Olympic truce.[/quote]

It will have to wait until the amphibious fleet has entered the Black Sea. After that, could be any time. Wait for pics of the Russian fleet clearing the Bosporus. I say 3-4 days after that, it’ll start. [/quote]

It's the middle of winter and the ground is covered with snow.  The satellite imagery shows that most of the new forward bases Russia has staged near the Ukraine border have a lot of extra vehicles and tents but the reality of the tents and vehicles is that the snow betrays the fact that most of the tents are currently unoccupied and most of the vehicles are just sitting idle.[/quote]

Question: How long does it take to air lift a Infantry division (about 10,000 personnel) and get them into pre-positioned lager areas like you mentioned, where vehicles are sitting ready and bivouac emplacements are already set up?

Answer: about 6 hours with a couple dozen IL-76’s making 200 mile flights, twice. So, less than a full workday to go from parked vehicles and empty tents to having a full division in place and ready to roll out the next morning.

You folks really don’t understand how fast a modern military moves people and assets around when it’s for-real.

Everything in the current Russian army land warfare doctrine is stuff they observed us doing in 1992 against the Iraqi army. They watched us, and they learned, and they’ll do the same things we did. The Ukrainians aren’t even going to know what hit them, and it will (hopefully) be over in days.

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