Anonymous wrote:Nationally in 2016 the polls were "off" by one point (Clinton won popular vote by 2 points, the polling average was Clinton +3). Very little evidence if shy Trump supporters there.

State polls were off, but they weren't many if them in 2016, especially high quality polls right before the election. What made them off?
1. They didn't weight for education
2. Undecideds swung towards Trump after the Comey letter

This year many are weighting for education, there are more high quality polls, and there are few undecideds. Very different from 2016.

You think so? Convince me.

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Anonymous wrote:It's weird how Trump supporerts are arguing:
1) Trump supporters are enthusiastic and eagar as shown by massive rally attendance but are afraid to tell anybody how they will vote.
2) Loud, obnoxious Democrats are intimidating Trump supporters and destroying friendships because they believe Trump is uniquely evil but won't vote.

Stop being obtuse. Trump voters come in different stripes. The rabble rousing fanatics and the soft spoken Midwest “folks” who don’t wear politics on their sleeves. Why would you tell a CNN pollster you’re voting for a “Nazi” if you were in the latter camp? Why would you even respond to the “fake news” if you were in the former.

There is absolutely no social stigma for being a Biden voter as being a Trump voter. I don’t see people getting knocked out for wearing Biden gear. Why would you think this cultural climate wouldn’t influence the answers of at least 5% to 10% of Trump voters?

You are the obtuse one. You are making arguments that have no evidence behind them. Instead, DCUM Trump supporters choose whichever narrative fits their theme, as you are doing here.

If you think there are shy Trump voters, please provide empirical evidence that they are lying to pollsters in the numbers you say, not suppositions.

Article about “shy” Trump voters from Politico:

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619

Real Clear Politics was off by 7.2% in favor of Trump in Wisconsin. Midwesterners are notorious for playing everything close to the vest and being recalcitrant about their political and religious views:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html

I’m fairly certain the 2016 polls in Michigan were wildly off too. Will repost when I find that data.

No, 2016 polls for Michigan were within the margin for error, and 12 percent were undecided voters. Lots of people voted third party. Almost 80 thousand people voted without marking anyone for president. Trump won by about 10 thousand votes.

Be this all as it may, if god forbid the polls were reversed, and it was Trump leading in nearly 15 swing states- a number of which were never swing states until this year- I’d be sh****ing my pants. If the best trump can hope for is a Hail Mary, and hope that the polls are off beyond a standard margin of error in a dozen states, it’s a good position for Biden to be in. You can’t logically argue that Trump can do anything besides eck out a win, and likely by stealing a few states via absentee ballot counting.

+1. We can all agree that the only thing that matters is the actual vote (and the counting of it). But I would rather be a Biden supporter than a Trump supporter right now. GOTV and let’s finish this thing strong.

Reuters

MICHIGAN
Biden 52% (+10)
Trump 42%


WISCONSIN
Biden 53% (+10)
Trump 43%
Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 0%
West 0%


PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 51% (+6)
Trump 45%
Jorgensen 1%
Hawkins 1%
West 0%

SCS/MINNESOTA
Biden 54% (+15)
Trump 39%

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Anonymous wrote:It's weird how Trump supporerts are arguing:
1) Trump supporters are enthusiastic and eagar as shown by massive rally attendance but are afraid to tell anybody how they will vote.
2) Loud, obnoxious Democrats are intimidating Trump supporters and destroying friendships because they believe Trump is uniquely evil but won't vote.

Stop being obtuse. Trump voters come in different stripes. The rabble rousing fanatics and the soft spoken Midwest “folks” who don’t wear politics on their sleeves. Why would you tell a CNN pollster you’re voting for a “Nazi” if you were in the latter camp? Why would you even respond to the “fake news” if you were in the former.

There is absolutely no social stigma for being a Biden voter as being a Trump voter. I don’t see people getting knocked out for wearing Biden gear. Why would you think this cultural climate wouldn’t influence the answers of at least 5% to 10% of Trump voters?

You are the obtuse one. You are making arguments that have no evidence behind them. Instead, DCUM Trump supporters choose whichever narrative fits their theme, as you are doing here.

If you think there are shy Trump voters, please provide empirical evidence that they are lying to pollsters in the numbers you say, not suppositions.

Article about “shy” Trump voters from Politico:

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619

Real Clear Politics was off by 7.2% in favor of Trump in Wisconsin. Midwesterners are notorious for playing everything close to the vest and being recalcitrant about their political and religious views:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html

I’m fairly certain the 2016 polls in Michigan were wildly off too. Will repost when I find that data.

No, 2016 polls for Michigan were within the margin for error, and 12 percent were undecided voters. Lots of people voted third party. Almost 80 thousand people voted without marking anyone for president. Trump won by about 10 thousand votes.

Be this all as it may, if god forbid the polls were reversed, and it was Trump leading in nearly 15 swing states- a number of which were never swing states until this year- I’d be sh****ing my pants. If the best trump can hope for is a Hail Mary, and hope that the polls are off beyond a standard margin of error in a dozen states, it’s a good position for Biden to be in. You can’t logically argue that Trump can do anything besides eck out a win, and likely by stealing a few states via absentee ballot counting.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's weird how Trump supporerts are arguing:
1) Trump supporters are enthusiastic and eagar as shown by massive rally attendance but are afraid to tell anybody how they will vote.
2) Loud, obnoxious Democrats are intimidating Trump supporters and destroying friendships because they believe Trump is uniquely evil but won't vote.

Stop being obtuse. Trump voters come in different stripes. The rabble rousing fanatics and the soft spoken Midwest “folks” who don’t wear politics on their sleeves. Why would you tell a CNN pollster you’re voting for a “Nazi” if you were in the latter camp? Why would you even respond to the “fake news” if you were in the former.

There is absolutely no social stigma for being a Biden voter as being a Trump voter. I don’t see people getting knocked out for wearing Biden gear. Why would you think this cultural climate wouldn’t influence the answers of at least 5% to 10% of Trump voters?

You are the obtuse one. You are making arguments that have no evidence behind them. Instead, DCUM Trump supporters choose whichever narrative fits their theme, as you are doing here.

If you think there are shy Trump voters, please provide empirical evidence that they are lying to pollsters in the numbers you say, not suppositions.

Article about “shy” Trump voters from Politico:

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619

Real Clear Politics was off by 7.2% in favor of Trump in Wisconsin. Midwesterners are notorious for playing everything close to the vest and being recalcitrant about their political and religious views:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html

I’m fairly certain the 2016 polls in Michigan were wildly off too. Will repost when I find that data.

No, 2016 polls for Michigan were within the margin for error, and 12 percent were undecided voters. Lots of people voted third party. Almost 80 thousand people voted without marking anyone for president. Trump won by about 10 thousand votes.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's weird how Trump supporerts are arguing:
1) Trump supporters are enthusiastic and eagar as shown by massive rally attendance but are afraid to tell anybody how they will vote.
2) Loud, obnoxious Democrats are intimidating Trump supporters and destroying friendships because they believe Trump is uniquely evil but won't vote.

Stop being obtuse. Trump voters come in different stripes. The rabble rousing fanatics and the soft spoken Midwest “folks” who don’t wear politics on their sleeves. Why would you tell a CNN pollster you’re voting for a “Nazi” if you were in the latter camp? Why would you even respond to the “fake news” if you were in the former.

There is absolutely no social stigma for being a Biden voter as being a Trump voter. I don’t see people getting knocked out for wearing Biden gear. Why would you think this cultural climate wouldn’t influence the answers of at least 5% to 10% of Trump voters?

AYFKMWT? Do you need to see the video of the Trumples trying to run the Biden bus off the road? I linked in another thread to a Biden voter who found that her Biden sign had been shot down. You’re acting like a dullard. The “cultural climate” is the one in which the sitting president and his eldest offspring are acting as stochastic terrorists. Trump has been urging violence for months - stand back and stand by.

So let’s not pretend that Trump voters don’t have personality disorders, Midwestern or not. And I live in the upper Midwest. I can assure you that Trumpies aren’t quiet, even up here.

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's weird how Trump supporerts are arguing:
1) Trump supporters are enthusiastic and eagar as shown by massive rally attendance but are afraid to tell anybody how they will vote.
2) Loud, obnoxious Democrats are intimidating Trump supporters and destroying friendships because they believe Trump is uniquely evil but won't vote.

Stop being obtuse. Trump voters come in different stripes. The rabble rousing fanatics and the soft spoken Midwest “folks” who don’t wear politics on their sleeves. Why would you tell a CNN pollster you’re voting for a “Nazi” if you were in the latter camp? Why would you even respond to the “fake news” if you were in the former.

There is absolutely no social stigma for being a Biden voter as being a Trump voter. I don’t see people getting knocked out for wearing Biden gear. Why would you think this cultural climate wouldn’t influence the answers of at least 5% to 10% of Trump voters?

You are the obtuse one. You are making arguments that have no evidence behind them. Instead, DCUM Trump supporters choose whichever narrative fits their theme, as you are doing here.

If you think there are shy Trump voters, please provide empirical evidence that they are lying to pollsters in the numbers you say, not suppositions.

Article about “shy” Trump voters from Politico:

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619

Real Clear Politics was off by 7.2% in favor of Trump in Wisconsin. Midwesterners are notorious for playing everything close to the vest and being recalcitrant about their political and religious views:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html

I’m fairly certain the 2016 polls in Michigan were wildly off too. Will repost when I find that data.

Yes, I saw those. That article is fairly speculative itself. The Trafalgar pollster leans extremely R, so is often wrong, only in the opposite direction from other pollsters.

If you look at WI, PA, and MI from 2016, the polling average was exactly correct for Clinton but underestimated Trump. The reason Trump won was that all the undecideds broke for Trump. If there were shy Trump voters, they were pretending to be undecided. which might not even be a lie if they really did feel a little uncertain. The polls were not "off," analysts simply didn't consider the undecideds breaking for Trump in their analysis.


This year there are many fewer undecideds, and Biden is polling at or over 50%. So even in the unlikely event that all undecideds vote for the incumbent, Biden will still win.

Thanks for looking at evidence though. Makes for better discussion.

Nationally in 2016 the polls were "off" by one point (Clinton won popular vote by 2 points, the polling average was Clinton +3). Very little evidence if shy Trump supporters there.

State polls were off, but they weren't many if them in 2016, especially high quality polls right before the election. What made them off?
1. They didn't weight for education
2. Undecideds swung towards Trump after the Comey letter

This year many are weighting for education, there are more high quality polls, and there are few undecideds. Very different from 2016.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's weird how Trump supporerts are arguing:
1) Trump supporters are enthusiastic and eagar as shown by massive rally attendance but are afraid to tell anybody how they will vote.
2) Loud, obnoxious Democrats are intimidating Trump supporters and destroying friendships because they believe Trump is uniquely evil but won't vote.

Stop being obtuse. Trump voters come in different stripes. The rabble rousing fanatics and the soft spoken Midwest “folks” who don’t wear politics on their sleeves. Why would you tell a CNN pollster you’re voting for a “Nazi” if you were in the latter camp? Why would you even respond to the “fake news” if you were in the former.

There is absolutely no social stigma for being a Biden voter as being a Trump voter. I don’t see people getting knocked out for wearing Biden gear. Why would you think this cultural climate wouldn’t influence the answers of at least 5% to 10% of Trump voters?

You are the obtuse one. You are making arguments that have no evidence behind them. Instead, DCUM Trump supporters choose whichever narrative fits their theme, as you are doing here.

If you think there are shy Trump voters, please provide empirical evidence that they are lying to pollsters in the numbers you say, not suppositions.

Article about “shy” Trump voters from Politico:

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619

Real Clear Politics was off by 7.2% in favor of Trump in Wisconsin. Midwesterners are notorious for playing everything close to the vest and being recalcitrant about their political and religious views:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html

I’m fairly certain the 2016 polls in Michigan were wildly off too. Will repost when I find that data.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's weird how Trump supporerts are arguing:
1) Trump supporters are enthusiastic and eagar as shown by massive rally attendance but are afraid to tell anybody how they will vote.
2) Loud, obnoxious Democrats are intimidating Trump supporters and destroying friendships because they believe Trump is uniquely evil but won't vote.

Stop being obtuse. Trump voters come in different stripes. The rabble rousing fanatics and the soft spoken Midwest “folks” who don’t wear politics on their sleeves. Why would you tell a CNN pollster you’re voting for a “Nazi” if you were in the latter camp? Why would you even respond to the “fake news” if you were in the former.

There is absolutely no social stigma for being a Biden voter as being a Trump voter. I don’t see people getting knocked out for wearing Biden gear. Why would you think this cultural climate wouldn’t influence the answers of at least 5% to 10% of Trump voters?

You are the obtuse one. You are making arguments that have no evidence behind them. Instead, DCUM Trump supporters choose whichever narrative fits their theme, as you are doing here.

If you think there are shy Trump voters, please provide empirical evidence that they are lying to pollsters in the numbers you say, not suppositions.

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Anonymous wrote:Oh, and I'm "braving Covid" to vote for Biden on election day.

You are, but we’re in DC. The average working and middle class voter in the Milwaukee suburbs is not. Biden voters are anti-Trump voters, not pro Biden. Trump voters are almost cultists in their enthusiasm. Enthusiasm drives turnout and turnout >>> polling.

I bet a sizeable portion of “Biden voters” won’t even bother to return their ballots. People can’t even be bothered to pay their bills by mail anymore. A lot of people who aren’t inside the Beltway or politically astute are just gonna to let their ballots linger. Trump voters won’t.

2018 begs to differ

Trump wasn’t on the ballot in 2018. This is an extremely shallow, celebrity obsessed country. Culture > politics and a lot of people vote for Trump because he’s “the guy on TV.”

Right. We're not talking about the enthusiasm of Trump voters. You're saying the anti-Trump voters don't have enough enthusiasm to come to the polls. I'm saying look at how motivated we were in 2018 - when Trump wasn't EVEN on the ballot. Do you really think two years later, with all that's happened between then and now, we are LESS enthusiastic about getting him out?

As I have said a thousand times, and have to keep reminding myself = we have zero guarantee Trump will lose. I pray to gd he will but can't guarantee it. But you are out of your mind if you think Dems aren't fired up. I just got back from my fourth time volunteering with the Biden campaign to deliver voting guides in my swing state. Do you think I am the only one giving up my free time to do that? Have you seen the fundraising numbers? Have you seen the early voting numbers?

Biden has been a surprisingly lovable candidate. I think he's really tapped into something deep. But even more than that TRUMP IS SO GD AWFUL and I certainly don't feel LESS that way now than in 2018.

That's what I mean when I say 2018 begs to differ.

The polls could be wrong again. We could be reading them wrong. We could be failing to take into account that something with a 1 in 10 chance of happening happens. I am not sitting here feeling like I can just relax, it's all sewn up. But I do feel like your take on this is anywhere near correct. I think Trump voters are really misreading how much we hate him.

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Anonymous wrote:I don’t know about PA. Those Trump rallies were massive. Is there indeed a large uncounted vote there?

If you read articles about the rallies, you learn that they are sort of like Grateful Dead concerts. There are people who travel around from show to show. Yes, of course locals come out because its always exciting to see a president of the US live and in person, but a few thousand people at a superspreader event is not the same as ensuring the millions of votes needed to win a state or country.

Bernie also had a lot of packed rallies. Biden won the nomination. I think you can read enthusiasm into those rallies, but not necessarily numbers.

Anyway, all we can do now is one last GOVT push, and hope.

No Bernie did not have a “lot” of “packed” rallies, at least by Trump standards. Trump had four rallies yesterday in PA alone. There were 57,000 people at ONE of them.

Bernie had nothing of the sort, ever in his wildest dreams.

57000 people at a rally during a pandemic? Thanks for reminding me that the Republican Party is a death cult.

Do you honestly think Biden could pull 57,000 people at a rally if covid didnt exist and things were normal? Color me skeptical.

Probably. But remember, Biden isn’t a cult leader. Dems don’t need to hear a dear leader speak for validation about our choices. Backing Biden isn’t a lifestyle and we aren’t defensive about backing him. We know he’s a good guy and don’t need to be in a political rally to feel good about supporting him. Unlike Trump voters who need group validation for backing a crook, a liar, a rapist, bigot, white supremicist, tax cheat, etc...

I really love this response.

I know this is about polls, but it seems that Trump supporters think that polls can be replaced by rally attendance. They are literally responding to data with anecdotes.

The polls were not foolproof last time. Trump closed in rapidly at the finish in 2016.

How rapidly can he gain ground when 90 million people have already voted?

No, they didn’t close. Democratic turn out plummeted.

What didn’t close? What are you talking about, other than a county or two in south Florida?

93,131,017 people have already voted.

WHOOOOoooo HooOo !! That’s my cousins ‘n them! Riding with Biden! Don’t mKe is get on the road in our trucks too... 🚙 🚙 🚙 🚙

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It seems that Trump supporters think that polls can be replaced by rally attendance.

This. Hilarious.

Exactly. Mondale had a rally of 100,000 just before his historic loss.

Trump has a solid base of 42 to 44 percent, and this people can't wait to go to their KKK rallies to be their racist selves and dance and be deplorables with the rest of the fanatics.

You think people are telling pollsters they’re voting for Trump when the person on the other line thinks by saying “yes” they’re supporting a KKK affiliated Nazi? You think right wingers are telling “fake news” “Deep State” operatives who they’re voting for when CNN conducts a poll? Nope. These polls are gonna turn out to be off by way more than in 2016.

And yet, they are going to rallies and posting selfies on Facebook. They are using their own names in social media to say the most vile things about Biden.

Trump humpers are not shy.

I’m talking about regular, apolitical people, not diehards. Why would you tell a pollster you’re voting for someone who CNN says is a Nazi? There is a huge incentive for “shy” Trump supporters to lie to pollsters. This is why Trafalgar and Rassmussen factor this in and he’s surging in these polls. And they were right in 2016.

What did they say in 2018?

Trump wasn’t on the ballot in 2018.

No, but polling was done for the 2018 elections.

“ The midterm elections prove that at least for now Rasmussen is dead wrong and traditional pollsters are correct.” - CNN article.

Anonymous wrote:It's weird how Trump supporerts are arguing:
1) Trump supporters are enthusiastic and eagar as shown by massive rally attendance but are afraid to tell anybody how they will vote.
2) Loud, obnoxious Democrats are intimidating Trump supporters and destroying friendships because they believe Trump is uniquely evil but won't vote.

Stop being obtuse. Trump voters come in different stripes. The rabble rousing fanatics and the soft spoken Midwest “folks” who don’t wear politics on their sleeves. Why would you tell a CNN pollster you’re voting for a “Nazi” if you were in the latter camp? Why would you even respond to the “fake news” if you were in the former.

There is absolutely no social stigma for being a Biden voter as being a Trump voter. I don’t see people getting knocked out for wearing Biden gear. Why would you think this cultural climate wouldn’t influence the answers of at least 5% to 10% of Trump voters?