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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Look you made something that you thinks tells a story. It was a good exercise, don't get me wrong.

Others have pointed out that there are some major holes in your calculations and variables you didn't account for and cant really explain what "formula" you used to arrive at your conclusions.

It one way of looking at things and many don't agree with your conclusions.

Personally, its a start, but without accounting for many other variables, I don't think the numbers mean much. [/quote]

I don't know, I find it more interesting that some Robinson parent or player posting a couple of jersey numbers for the 50th time in the last month, and he's working with what he has. When people do these sorts of analyses for professions sports you can screen for only stats when the win probability is below X% or something to get better data and avoid things like the garbage time goals that someone mentioned previously, but VHSL boys lax doesn't keep stats that are anything close to that detailed. Or OP could probably figure out how to weigh recent games more than early season ones (which you also do with sports modeling), but I suspect he has a day job.

All in all it's not perfect, but I like it as a data point to consider and appreciate the effort.[/quote]

I don’t know, what’s the point if the numbers don’t make sense? How does Madison go from near last to mid pack and BF go from upper end to lower all while Robo goes up 1? And then the only explanation is that the math is expressed on an opponent adjusted basis and then correlated to goals scored. Might as well be expressed as a fart because it smells like poo.[/quote]

I have explained the numbers over and over, with more and more detail every single time. Perhaps you, and others, aren't asking very good questions and need to add more details to what you'd like to know.

For offense I adjusted each team’s scoring based on the strength of the defenses it faced. Scoring 10 goals against a strong opponent counts more than scoring 10 against a weak one, so the final number estimates how many goals a team would be expected to score against an average opponent rather than just using raw goals per game.

For defense “I adjusted each team’s goals allowed based on the strength of the offenses it faced. Allowing 8 goals to a strong offense is better than allowing 8 to a weak one, so the final number estimates how many goals a team would be expected to allow against an average opponent.

You will still complain, and say it doesn't "take all factors into account" and then never once suggest what those factors, or even a single factor, could be.

You seem are the fart.[/quote] FFS you wrote a novel and you still can’t explain why there’s a delta. what did you did different between the two runs? Or did you make a mistake? Or are you just trying to manipulate the numbers to get a certain outcome?

[/quote]

I already effing wrote the explanation! You just can't read.

"The first (quick) method I came up with was a rough weighted scoring index. The second was, as part of making defense and offense measures the same, on a goals-equivalent vs an average opponent version.

The first method was done quickly, and was a looser weighted index. The second method was more rigorous on an "expected goals" basis, which is the more fully opponent adjusted method."

Over and over and over I explain this stuff. You find a new weird ass thing to complain about. Just ignore the numbers since you can't understand them and you're too fragile to read.[/quote]

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