Ill throw in some variables to help out.
Weather at game time
Was there a running clock.
Who let in goals? - starting D and goal, or backups

as people said, its interesting, but you seem very tied to it and I get that your proud of it, but it is just a nice distraction.

Sports gambling exists because statistical models predicting winners in sporting events are largely ineffective. The analysis being posted here is not nuanced or granular enough to warrant the creators time for anything other than entertainment.

There has been player # references at times about who is a good goalie, LSM, FO, etc.

Is there a "best of 6a" list we can make for positions?

I think it'd be a fun exercise to come up with a suggested list of players, and then people could maybe offer any observations if they've seen two FO nominees compete, or an Attack go against a Pole or Goalie.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Enough of the math and nerd talk... Some great games tonight...

Yorktown @ Oakton
Chantilly @ Madison
Stone Bridge @ Riverside
Freedom SR @ Lightridge

Arlington Baby Blues by 7.
Vienna Warbirds by 5.
Leesburg Rams by 4.
Aldie Lightning by 1 in OT.

This is as arbitrary as using math to make predictions, what genius level insight do you have for these?

I know things.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Enough of the math and nerd talk... Some great games tonight...

Yorktown @ Oakton
Chantilly @ Madison
Stone Bridge @ Riverside
Freedom SR @ Lightridge

Arlington Baby Blues by 7.
Vienna Warbirds by 5.
Leesburg Rams by 4.
Aldie Lightning by 1 in OT.

This is as arbitrary as using math to make predictions, what genius level insight do you have for these?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look you made something that you thinks tells a story. It was a good exercise, don't get me wrong.

Others have pointed out that there are some major holes in your calculations and variables you didn't account for and cant really explain what "formula" you used to arrive at your conclusions.

It one way of looking at things and many don't agree with your conclusions.

Personally, its a start, but without accounting for many other variables, I don't think the numbers mean much.

I don't know, I find it more interesting that some Robinson parent or player posting a couple of jersey numbers for the 50th time in the last month, and he's working with what he has. When people do these sorts of analyses for professions sports you can screen for only stats when the win probability is below X% or something to get better data and avoid things like the garbage time goals that someone mentioned previously, but VHSL boys lax doesn't keep stats that are anything close to that detailed. Or OP could probably figure out how to weigh recent games more than early season ones (which you also do with sports modeling), but I suspect he has a day job.

All in all it's not perfect, but I like it as a data point to consider and appreciate the effort.

I don’t know, what’s the point if the numbers don’t make sense? How does Madison go from near last to mid pack and BF go from upper end to lower all while Robo goes up 1? And then the only explanation is that the math is expressed on an opponent adjusted basis and then correlated to goals scored. Might as well be expressed as a fart because it smells like poo.

I have explained the numbers over and over, with more and more detail every single time. Perhaps you, and others, aren't asking very good questions and need to add more details to what you'd like to know.

For offense I adjusted each team’s scoring based on the strength of the defenses it faced. Scoring 10 goals against a strong opponent counts more than scoring 10 against a weak one, so the final number estimates how many goals a team would be expected to score against an average opponent rather than just using raw goals per game.

For defense “I adjusted each team’s goals allowed based on the strength of the offenses it faced. Allowing 8 goals to a strong offense is better than allowing 8 to a weak one, so the final number estimates how many goals a team would be expected to allow against an average opponent.

You will still complain, and say it doesn't "take all factors into account" and then never once suggest what those factors, or even a single factor, could be.

You seem are the fart.

FFS you wrote a novel and you still can’t explain why there’s a delta. what did you did different between the two runs? Or did you make a mistake? Or are you just trying to manipulate the numbers to get a certain outcome?

I already effing wrote the explanation! You just can't read.

"The first (quick) method I came up with was a rough weighted scoring index. The second was, as part of making defense and offense measures the same, on a goals-equivalent vs an average opponent version.

The first method was done quickly, and was a looser weighted index. The second method was more rigorous on an "expected goals" basis, which is the more fully opponent adjusted method."

Over and over and over I explain this stuff. You find a new weird ass thing to complain about. Just ignore the numbers since you can't understand them and you're too fragile to read.

Anonymous wrote:Enough of the math and nerd talk... Some great games tonight...

Yorktown @ Oakton
Chantilly @ Madison
Stone Bridge @ Riverside
Freedom SR @ Lightridge

Arlington Baby Blues by 7.
Vienna Warbirds by 5.
Leesburg Rams by 4.
Aldie Lightning by 1 in OT.

Enough of the math and nerd talk... Some great games tonight...

Yorktown @ Oakton
Chantilly @ Madison
Stone Bridge @ Riverside
Freedom SR @ Lightridge

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look you made something that you thinks tells a story. It was a good exercise, don't get me wrong.

Others have pointed out that there are some major holes in your calculations and variables you didn't account for and cant really explain what "formula" you used to arrive at your conclusions.

It one way of looking at things and many don't agree with your conclusions.

Personally, its a start, but without accounting for many other variables, I don't think the numbers mean much.

I don't know, I find it more interesting that some Robinson parent or player posting a couple of jersey numbers for the 50th time in the last month, and he's working with what he has. When people do these sorts of analyses for professions sports you can screen for only stats when the win probability is below X% or something to get better data and avoid things like the garbage time goals that someone mentioned previously, but VHSL boys lax doesn't keep stats that are anything close to that detailed. Or OP could probably figure out how to weigh recent games more than early season ones (which you also do with sports modeling), but I suspect he has a day job.

All in all it's not perfect, but I like it as a data point to consider and appreciate the effort.

I don’t know, what’s the point if the numbers don’t make sense? How does Madison go from near last to mid pack and BF go from upper end to lower all while Robo goes up 1? And then the only explanation is that the math is expressed on an opponent adjusted basis and then correlated to goals scored. Might as well be expressed as a fart because it smells like poo.

I have explained the numbers over and over, with more and more detail every single time. Perhaps you, and others, aren't asking very good questions and need to add more details to what you'd like to know.

For offense I adjusted each team’s scoring based on the strength of the defenses it faced. Scoring 10 goals against a strong opponent counts more than scoring 10 against a weak one, so the final number estimates how many goals a team would be expected to score against an average opponent rather than just using raw goals per game.

For defense “I adjusted each team’s goals allowed based on the strength of the offenses it faced. Allowing 8 goals to a strong offense is better than allowing 8 to a weak one, so the final number estimates how many goals a team would be expected to allow against an average opponent.

You will still complain, and say it doesn't "take all factors into account" and then never once suggest what those factors, or even a single factor, could be.

You seem are the fart.

FFS you wrote a novel and you still can’t explain why there’s a delta. what did you did different between the two runs? Or did you make a mistake? Or are you just trying to manipulate the numbers to get a certain outcome?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look you made something that you thinks tells a story. It was a good exercise, don't get me wrong.

Others have pointed out that there are some major holes in your calculations and variables you didn't account for and cant really explain what "formula" you used to arrive at your conclusions.

It one way of looking at things and many don't agree with your conclusions.

Personally, its a start, but without accounting for many other variables, I don't think the numbers mean much.

I don't know, I find it more interesting that some Robinson parent or player posting a couple of jersey numbers for the 50th time in the last month, and he's working with what he has. When people do these sorts of analyses for professions sports you can screen for only stats when the win probability is below X% or something to get better data and avoid things like the garbage time goals that someone mentioned previously, but VHSL boys lax doesn't keep stats that are anything close to that detailed. Or OP could probably figure out how to weigh recent games more than early season ones (which you also do with sports modeling), but I suspect he has a day job.

All in all it's not perfect, but I like it as a data point to consider and appreciate the effort.

I don’t know, what’s the point if the numbers don’t make sense? How does Madison go from near last to mid pack and BF go from upper end to lower all while Robo goes up 1? And then the only explanation is that the math is expressed on an opponent adjusted basis and then correlated to goals scored. Might as well be expressed as a fart because it smells like poo.

nailed it, haha

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look you made something that you thinks tells a story. It was a good exercise, don't get me wrong.

Others have pointed out that there are some major holes in your calculations and variables you didn't account for and cant really explain what "formula" you used to arrive at your conclusions.

It one way of looking at things and many don't agree with your conclusions.

Personally, its a start, but without accounting for many other variables, I don't think the numbers mean much.

I don't know, I find it more interesting that some Robinson parent or player posting a couple of jersey numbers for the 50th time in the last month, and he's working with what he has. When people do these sorts of analyses for professions sports you can screen for only stats when the win probability is below X% or something to get better data and avoid things like the garbage time goals that someone mentioned previously, but VHSL boys lax doesn't keep stats that are anything close to that detailed. Or OP could probably figure out how to weigh recent games more than early season ones (which you also do with sports modeling), but I suspect he has a day job.

All in all it's not perfect, but I like it as a data point to consider and appreciate the effort.

I don’t know, what’s the point if the numbers don’t make sense? How does Madison go from near last to mid pack and BF go from upper end to lower all while Robo goes up 1? And then the only explanation is that the math is expressed on an opponent adjusted basis and then correlated to goals scored. Might as well be expressed as a fart because it smells like poo.

I have explained the numbers over and over, with more and more detail every single time. Perhaps you, and others, aren't asking very good questions and need to add more details to what you'd like to know.

For offense I adjusted each team’s scoring based on the strength of the defenses it faced. Scoring 10 goals against a strong opponent counts more than scoring 10 against a weak one, so the final number estimates how many goals a team would be expected to score against an average opponent rather than just using raw goals per game.

For defense “I adjusted each team’s goals allowed based on the strength of the offenses it faced. Allowing 8 goals to a strong offense is better than allowing 8 to a weak one, so the final number estimates how many goals a team would be expected to allow against an average opponent.

You will still complain, and say it doesn't "take all factors into account" and then never once suggest what those factors, or even a single factor, could be.

You seem are the fart.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look you made something that you thinks tells a story. It was a good exercise, don't get me wrong.

Others have pointed out that there are some major holes in your calculations and variables you didn't account for and cant really explain what "formula" you used to arrive at your conclusions.

It one way of looking at things and many don't agree with your conclusions.

Personally, its a start, but without accounting for many other variables, I don't think the numbers mean much.

I don't know, I find it more interesting that some Robinson parent or player posting a couple of jersey numbers for the 50th time in the last month, and he's working with what he has. When people do these sorts of analyses for professions sports you can screen for only stats when the win probability is below X% or something to get better data and avoid things like the garbage time goals that someone mentioned previously, but VHSL boys lax doesn't keep stats that are anything close to that detailed. Or OP could probably figure out how to weigh recent games more than early season ones (which you also do with sports modeling), but I suspect he has a day job.

All in all it's not perfect, but I like it as a data point to consider and appreciate the effort.

Thank you very much. I don't understand this straw man method people keep using, claiming this is an attempt to fully distil the entirety of a team or season into a single measure. It's taking the results of the games played and comparing them. With records, goals scored, common opponents etc we can take the SoS and do some calculations to normalize the data to see who is actually scoring more or less based on quality of opponent.

You are the only person I've seen who has actually made any sort of concerte suggestion on how this could be better. And it'd be easy to weight on the most recent games in some capacity.

If someone said "Hey, for team X they were missing their best player on the team for these 3 games, can you factor that into the numbers?" then we could do that.

But basically people here just want to be negative and crap on the numbers because they don't understand them, the numbers contradict their near religiously held public HS lacrosse opinions, or they have nothing of value to contribute so they just have to complain about something.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look you made something that you thinks tells a story. It was a good exercise, don't get me wrong.

Others have pointed out that there are some major holes in your calculations and variables you didn't account for and cant really explain what "formula" you used to arrive at your conclusions.

It one way of looking at things and many don't agree with your conclusions.

Personally, its a start, but without accounting for many other variables, I don't think the numbers mean much.

I don't know, I find it more interesting that some Robinson parent or player posting a couple of jersey numbers for the 50th time in the last month, and he's working with what he has. When people do these sorts of analyses for professions sports you can screen for only stats when the win probability is below X% or something to get better data and avoid things like the garbage time goals that someone mentioned previously, but VHSL boys lax doesn't keep stats that are anything close to that detailed. Or OP could probably figure out how to weigh recent games more than early season ones (which you also do with sports modeling), but I suspect he has a day job.

All in all it's not perfect, but I like it as a data point to consider and appreciate the effort.

I don’t know, what’s the point if the numbers don’t make sense? How does Madison go from near last to mid pack and BF go from upper end to lower all while Robo goes up 1? And then the only explanation is that the math is expressed on an opponent adjusted basis and then correlated to goals scored. Might as well be expressed as a fart because it smells like poo.

As always, head-to-head and then common opponent performance matters more than anything else.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look you made something that you thinks tells a story. It was a good exercise, don't get me wrong.

Others have pointed out that there are some major holes in your calculations and variables you didn't account for and cant really explain what "formula" you used to arrive at your conclusions.

It one way of looking at things and many don't agree with your conclusions.

Personally, its a start, but without accounting for many other variables, I don't think the numbers mean much.

I don't know, I find it more interesting that some Robinson parent or player posting a couple of jersey numbers for the 50th time in the last month, and he's working with what he has. When people do these sorts of analyses for professions sports you can screen for only stats when the win probability is below X% or something to get better data and avoid things like the garbage time goals that someone mentioned previously, but VHSL boys lax doesn't keep stats that are anything close to that detailed. Or OP could probably figure out how to weigh recent games more than early season ones (which you also do with sports modeling), but I suspect he has a day job.

All in all it's not perfect, but I like it as a data point to consider and appreciate the effort.

I don’t know, what’s the point if the numbers don’t make sense? How does Madison go from near last to mid pack and BF go from upper end to lower all while Robo goes up 1? And then the only explanation is that the math is expressed on an opponent adjusted basis and then correlated to goals scored. Might as well be expressed as a fart because it smells like poo.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Look you made something that you thinks tells a story. It was a good exercise, don't get me wrong.

Others have pointed out that there are some major holes in your calculations and variables you didn't account for and cant really explain what "formula" you used to arrive at your conclusions.

It one way of looking at things and many don't agree with your conclusions.

Personally, its a start, but without accounting for many other variables, I don't think the numbers mean much.

I don't know, I find it more interesting that some Robinson parent or player posting a couple of jersey numbers for the 50th time in the last month, and he's working with what he has. When people do these sorts of analyses for professions sports you can screen for only stats when the win probability is below X% or something to get better data and avoid things like the garbage time goals that someone mentioned previously, but VHSL boys lax doesn't keep stats that are anything close to that detailed. Or OP could probably figure out how to weigh recent games more than early season ones (which you also do with sports modeling), but I suspect he has a day job.

All in all it's not perfect, but I like it as a data point to consider and appreciate the effort.

As I said, its something, but maybe not what the OP thinks it is. Based on the replies the OP had to questions, I suspect its not a day job but a class they need to attend.

As you stated the numbers are very high level and don't tell a full story, so the old saying holds "garbage in, garbage out"
Agree its something to consider, but too many other variables missing to make a valid assumption(s) on.

List the specific variables needed for "valid assumptions" (which is the the right term).