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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Look you made something that you thinks tells a story. It was a good exercise, don't get me wrong.

Others have pointed out that there are some major holes in your calculations and variables you didn't account for and cant really explain what "formula" you used to arrive at your conclusions.

It one way of looking at things and many don't agree with your conclusions.

Personally, its a start, but without accounting for many other variables, I don't think the numbers mean much. [/quote]

I don't know, I find it more interesting that some Robinson parent or player posting a couple of jersey numbers for the 50th time in the last month, and he's working with what he has. When people do these sorts of analyses for professions sports you can screen for only stats when the win probability is below X% or something to get better data and avoid things like the garbage time goals that someone mentioned previously, but VHSL boys lax doesn't keep stats that are anything close to that detailed. Or OP could probably figure out how to weigh recent games more than early season ones (which you also do with sports modeling), but I suspect he has a day job.

All in all it's not perfect, but I like it as a data point to consider and appreciate the effort.[/quote]

I don’t know, what’s the point if the numbers don’t make sense? How does Madison go from near last to mid pack and BF go from upper end to lower all while Robo goes up 1? And then the only explanation is that the math is expressed on an opponent adjusted basis and then correlated to goals scored. Might as well be expressed as a fart because it smells like poo.[/quote]

As always, head-to-head and then common opponent performance matters more than anything else. [/quote]

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