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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Look you made something that you thinks tells a story. It was a good exercise, don't get me wrong.

Others have pointed out that there are some major holes in your calculations and variables you didn't account for and cant really explain what "formula" you used to arrive at your conclusions.

It one way of looking at things and many don't agree with your conclusions.

Personally, its a start, but without accounting for many other variables, I don't think the numbers mean much. [/quote]

I don't know, I find it more interesting that some Robinson parent or player posting a couple of jersey numbers for the 50th time in the last month, and he's working with what he has. When people do these sorts of analyses for professions sports you can screen for only stats when the win probability is below X% or something to get better data and avoid things like the garbage time goals that someone mentioned previously, but VHSL boys lax doesn't keep stats that are anything close to that detailed. Or OP could probably figure out how to weigh recent games more than early season ones (which you also do with sports modeling), but I suspect he has a day job.

All in all it's not perfect, but I like it as a data point to consider and appreciate the effort.[/quote]

As I said, its something, but maybe not what the OP thinks it is. Based on the replies the OP had to questions, I suspect its not a day job but a class they need to attend.

As you stated the numbers are very high level and don't tell a full story, so the old saying holds "garbage in, garbage out"
Agree its something to consider, but too many other variables missing to make a valid assumption(s) on. [/quote]

List the specific variables needed for "valid assumptions" (which is the the right term).[/quote]

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