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Reply to "Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread"
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[quote=Anonymous]I think this is interesting with respect to early voting data versus polls. Based on specific states (e.g. Florida) that report party affiliation, as well as reports on where turnout is occurring in states that don't report partisan affiliation, it looks like conservatives/registered Republicans are turning out for early voting in large numbers. Although registered Democrats are ahead of Republicans in Florida, it's pretty close. And with more Republicans than Democrats expected to vote on November 3, that's a little worrying. But, as Nate Silver points out, this is actually consistent with polls which don't indicate a more liberal leaning electorate but rather one where more independents and Republicans are voting Democrat. Speaks to the limitations of analyses of early vote numbers as well. [twitter]https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1321463399012880385?s=20[/twitter][/quote]
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