Reply to Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread

Forum Index » Political Discussion

Reply to "Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread"

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
+1 and here are the specifics on what NYT/Siena got wrong and by how much in 2018.
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElRkxSsXEAIsYCx?format=jpg&name=large[/img][/quote]

We really don't know what is going to happen in Texas. Nate Cohn is pretty open about the challenges of polling in Texas:

[i]"With still a week of early voting and Election Day to go, more than seven million voters have already cast ballots in the state, representing more than 80 percent of the total turnout from four years ago. The state has not been vigorously contested at the presidential level in decades, leaving analysts with even more uncertainty about the eventual electorate than elsewhere.

No pollster and analyst can be reasonably confident about what the final Texas electorate will look like, given that a significant departure from prior turnout patterns is all but an inevitability."[/i]
...
[i]"Low-turnout Hispanic voters in Texas are some of the toughest voters to reach in the country for pollsters. It is even harder to ensure a representative sample of the group in a state like Texas where voters don’t register with a party; party registration can be used to ensure the right number of Democrats and Republicans. We can’t rule out the possibility that the poll failed to reach the most Democratic-leaning of these voters."
[/i]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/26/upshot/texas-polls-biden-trump.html
[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics