Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Pence has already given up on the Presidential race. He is going there for Lindsey Graham. This is the beginning of his campaign for the 2024 Republican nomination.

Pence won't be the candidate in 2024 if Trump loses. Trump will be.

Funny you think Trump will be alive in 2024.

Trump will be alive in 2054.

Only the good die young.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Pence has already given up on the Presidential race. He is going there for Lindsey Graham. This is the beginning of his campaign for the 2024 Republican nomination.

Pence won't be the candidate in 2024 if Trump loses. Trump will be.

Funny you think Trump will be alive in 2024.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Pence has already given up on the Presidential race. He is going there for Lindsey Graham. This is the beginning of his campaign for the 2024 Republican nomination.

Pence won't be the candidate in 2024 if Trump loses. Trump will be.

Interesting insights on Texas from TargetSmart (I think they are Democrat strategists but not super familiar):

"Turnout in Texas is huge. So far nearly 6.2 million Texans have cast a ballot, compared to 2.1 million at this time in 2016. This is good news for Joe Biden and Democrats despite the fact that based on modeled party Dems trail by roughly 12%. There’s a simple reason for this: the model looks at generic partisanship, not candidate support.

If you compare that to 2018 at this same point in the state, Dems trailed in the early vote by 14.1%. This means that the 2020 early vote electorate is 2% more Democratic than the 2018 electorate, which in the end resulted in a highly competitive US Senate election. This is a good sign for Biden.

The next positive sign is that while the overall turnout is breaking records, youth vote in Texas is surging beyond all other groups. Voters under the age of 30 account for 10.7% of all early votes thus far, up from 7.5% at this point in 2016.

Finally, one more positive sign for Biden is a surging Latino turnout. Latino voters account for 16.4% of ballots cast, up slightly from this point in 2016. Interestingly, white non-college voters, a key Trump base, are down 3% while white college educated voters are up more than 1%."
https://insights.targetsmart.com/insights-50-million-votes-in-how-to-interpret-tx-turnout.html

Anonymous wrote:
+1 and here are the specifics on what NYT/Siena got wrong and by how much in 2018.

+2

We really don't know what is going to happen in Texas. Nate Cohn is pretty open about the challenges of polling in Texas:

"With still a week of early voting and Election Day to go, more than seven million voters have already cast ballots in the state, representing more than 80 percent of the total turnout from four years ago. The state has not been vigorously contested at the presidential level in decades, leaving analysts with even more uncertainty about the eventual electorate than elsewhere.

No pollster and analyst can be reasonably confident about what the final Texas electorate will look like, given that a significant departure from prior turnout patterns is all but an inevitability."
...
"Low-turnout Hispanic voters in Texas are some of the toughest voters to reach in the country for pollsters. It is even harder to ensure a representative sample of the group in a state like Texas where voters don’t register with a party; party registration can be used to ensure the right number of Democrats and Republicans. We can’t rule out the possibility that the poll failed to reach the most Democratic-leaning of these voters."


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/26/upshot/texas-polls-biden-trump.html

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I doubt he wins. If he wins, it will be close. If its close, there will be litigation and the Supreme Court will ultimately side with the republicans. I am sorry, I want Biden but we are far from a victory.

There might be a few states that are close. States that won't be close: MI, PA, WI.

I would submit that the EC numbers on election night or by the end of the day on 11/4 will be such that there won't be any need for SCOTUS challenges.

If a state is within 50,000 votes then yes it will get the Florida 2000 treatment.

Now if Biden gets 270+ EVs of clear wins it is up to Republicans at various levels to provide a Goldwater 1974 moment. Otherwise they risk creating a Jamaica 1980 moment.

This made me smile but simultaneously realize I don’t even truly know what a Goldwater 1974 moment OR a Jamaica 1980 moment even means.

It was 1964, but Goldwater lost to LBJ in a landslide.

In 1974, Goldwater was picked to tell Nixon it's time to quit.

And in 1980, there were hundreds of murders in the run up to the election. THAT is why I made the comparison

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

We shall see. I’m going in believing Biden will win Texas. I don’t think they’re polling first time and unlikely voters in an election with significantly higher turnout than usual.

I like your optimism. 10% undecided is big. And the lead is about the margin of error.

In any case, this is a nightmare for the GOP. That Trump is under 50% in TX spells their doom.

There are some pretty significant caveats in this poll, a lot of it having to do with Latino voters in the state being difficult to poll. According to this, Trump is doing 14 points better with them, than Hillary did in 2016. They also got House races pretty consistently wrong the last time around (towards R), so as with the PP, I'm going to hold on to the hope that Biden will win Texas in a close one.

+1 and here are the specifics on what NYT/Siena got wrong and by how much in 2018.

NV always seems to break 2-4 more points for the Dem than polls indicate. IIRC there was a similar effect in N.M. and CO but those aren’t close.

If AZ and TX Hispanics start behaving like NV, CO, and N.M. Hispanics, Trump is not looking good.

Anonymous wrote:

Pence has already given up on the Presidential race. He is going there for Lindsey Graham. This is the beginning of his campaign for the 2024 Republican nomination.

Anonymous wrote:

We shall see. I’m going in believing Biden will win Texas. I don’t think they’re polling first time and unlikely voters in an election with significantly higher turnout than usual.

I like your optimism. 10% undecided is big. And the lead is about the margin of error.

In any case, this is a nightmare for the GOP. That Trump is under 50% in TX spells their doom.

I remember election night 2016, when all the pundits said Hillary would win.

It was one of the most devastating nights of my life. Horrifying, and everything I feared then has come to pass, only much, much worse!!

I can't understand why anyone in Texas would vote for Trump. I guess they all have horseshit in their heads instead of brains?

This election ought to be a total landslide for Biden, a win in every single state. Look at Covid! Look at the Stock Market Crash! Look at the environment! Look at...everything. What a mess our beautiful country is in, and a new hurricane is headed our way too!

This national nightmare must end!! VOTE FOR BIDEN, everyone, VOTE for SANITY. VOTE!!!!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I doubt he wins. If he wins, it will be close. If its close, there will be litigation and the Supreme Court will ultimately side with the republicans. I am sorry, I want Biden but we are far from a victory.

There might be a few states that are close. States that won't be close: MI, PA, WI.

I would submit that the EC numbers on election night or by the end of the day on 11/4 will be such that there won't be any need for SCOTUS challenges.

If a state is within 50,000 votes then yes it will get the Florida 2000 treatment.

Now if Biden gets 270+ EVs of clear wins it is up to Republicans at various levels to provide a Goldwater 1974 moment. Otherwise they risk creating a Jamaica 1980 moment.

This made me smile but simultaneously realize I don’t even truly know what a Goldwater 1974 moment OR a Jamaica 1980 moment even means.

It was 1964, but Goldwater lost to LBJ in a landslide.

In 1974, Goldwater was picked to tell Nixon it's time to quit.