Reply to What is the End Game in Ukraine?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]No, its more like, why should Ukraine cede Crimea? Ukraine has a borders. It is a country. Russia needs to get out.

It's not that hard.[/quote]

Crimea is never coming back.  Ukraine knows it and the world knows it so there's no point focusing on the unrealistic goals.

I mean is Israel getting out of the West Bank? Nope.  A full ocean of Palestinian tears won't change that. [/quote]

Never say never—history is long.  But I suspect Ukraine would settle for something without the peninsula but can’t give up the southern shore.  And Russia feels like it needs that southern shore to lock down the Black Sea which has always been its military obsession since C the Great at least.  I’ve looked at the map a lot and I just don’t see how anyone can let Russia have that lane bridge they want.  It cuts off Ukraine too sharply and leaves Odessa hanging.  It’s literally a bridge too far.[/quote]

I've said that before like a hundred times...that's exactly what Istanbul talks offered.  Retreat to Feb 24 lines, and tabling Crimea/Donetsk for 15 years.  They could have had their south back.[/quote]

I think part of the issue is trust.  No one in Ukraine believes Russian when they say they’ll go back to 2020 positions.  Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.  I wouldn’t trust Putin at all, so I can’t really blame them.  It costs become too high, they may not have much choice but I think there would be a greater comfort level if anyone sensed any regret on Putin’s part, and not like he’ll just roll back in once they have a chance to catch their breath and make better preparations (which they utterly failed to do this time).  If that happens it might go worse for Ukraine in round 3.[/quote]

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