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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]TO: Trump Campaign Senior Leadership Team
FROM: Tony Fabrizio, Fabrizio Lee & Associates – Chief Pollster, DJTFP / RNC
Tim Saler, Grassroots Targeting – Chief Data Consultant, DJTFP / RNC
SUBJ: Des Moines Register outlier poll versus stable Emerson College survey of Iowa
DATE: November 2, 2024
BLUF: Des Moines Register is a clear outlier poll. Emerson College, released today, far more closely reflects the 
state of the actual Iowa electorate and does so with far more transparency in their methodology.
Facts about voter registration & early voting:
Voter registration on Election Day 2020: R+0.5% (+10,547 voters)
Voter registration as of today: R+6.4% (+143,490 voters)
These figures include inactive voters; the margins are improved if reviewing only active voters.
Absentee & early voting as of this point in 2020: D+13 (-121,602 voters)
Absentee & early voting as of today: even (-20 voters)
To their credit, the Emerson College poll has an R+4 party split (below 2020 exit polls at R+10), and a Trump +8 
recalled 2020 vote margin that aligns with reported returns. Emerson shows Trump ahead of Harris 53-43 in their 
survey.
In the outlier Des Moines Register poll, they claim Harris leads with seniors (age 65+) by 19 points (55-36). In 2020, 
President Trump carried seniors 54-45 over Biden according to CNN exit polls.
The Emerson College poll released today concurs with the CNN exits from 2020, with President Trump solidly 
ahead 54-45 among voters aged 60-69, and 54-44 among voters aged 70+.
The Des Moines Register also claims Harris leads by 20 points among women (56-36). In 2020, President Trump 
tied Biden 49-49 among women according to CNN exits.
Once again, Emerson College's poll today is more similar to the exits, showing instead a lead for President Trump of 
5 points - 52-47.
Des Moines Register claims President Trump leads 51-39 among voters without a college degree. In 2020, 
President Trump won non-college voters by 17 points (58-41).
Yet again, Emerson College's poll from today agrees, with President Trump leading strongly among voters who have 
less than a 4-year degree.
Unlike Emerson which transparently reports its share of partisans and the 2020 vote recall, Des Moines Register 
does NOT disclose the distribution of this information, even though they asked it in their survey.
Emerson College reports President Trump leading strongly 93-7 among Republicans, while getting 8% of 
Democrats to Harris's 92%. President Trump solidly leads among independents 55-42.[/quote]
MAGA copium is delicious.  :lol: [/quote]

The fact that MAGA is expending all this time and energy with their pollster to debunk a single poll from a supposedly non-swing state tells you all about how credible this poll is, and how much a freakout this is causing to MAGA. Most importantly, it debunks their narrative of “we are winning” which is so important for them to boost in the MAG-verse, so that the confederacy of dunces is primed to challenge the results when they lose.

I don’t see Dems freaking out over the series of 75 “tracking” polls from the likes of Atlas showing Dear Leader winning every single state by 3 points or more, all coming out in the last 5 days. Because they are not worth freaking out over. In fact the desperate deluge of pro-Trump polls while respected pollsters like NYT/Siena, Marist, Yougov and now Seltzer - the absolutely non-partisan gold standard for one state - makes us quietly confident about the tide turning.

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