Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:TO: Trump Campaign Senior Leadership Team
FROM: Tony Fabrizio, Fabrizio Lee & Associates – Chief Pollster, DJTFP / RNC
Tim Saler, Grassroots Targeting – Chief Data Consultant, DJTFP / RNC
SUBJ: Des Moines Register outlier poll versus stable Emerson College survey of Iowa
DATE: November 2, 2024
BLUF: Des Moines Register is a clear outlier poll. Emerson College, released today, far more closely reflects the
state of the actual Iowa electorate and does so with far more transparency in their methodology.
Facts about voter registration & early voting:
Voter registration on Election Day 2020: R+0.5% (+10,547 voters)
Voter registration as of today: R+6.4% (+143,490 voters)
These figures include inactive voters; the margins are improved if reviewing only active voters.
Absentee & early voting as of this point in 2020: D+13 (-121,602 voters)
Absentee & early voting as of today: even (-20 voters)
To their credit, the Emerson College poll has an R+4 party split (below 2020 exit polls at R+10), and a Trump +8
recalled 2020 vote margin that aligns with reported returns. Emerson shows Trump ahead of Harris 53-43 in their
survey.
In the outlier Des Moines Register poll, they claim Harris leads with seniors (age 65+) by 19 points (55-36). In 2020,
President Trump carried seniors 54-45 over Biden according to CNN exit polls.
The Emerson College poll released today concurs with the CNN exits from 2020, with President Trump solidly
ahead 54-45 among voters aged 60-69, and 54-44 among voters aged 70+.
The Des Moines Register also claims Harris leads by 20 points among women (56-36). In 2020, President Trump
tied Biden 49-49 among women according to CNN exits.
Once again, Emerson College's poll today is more similar to the exits, showing instead a lead for President Trump of
5 points - 52-47.
Des Moines Register claims President Trump leads 51-39 among voters without a college degree. In 2020,
President Trump won non-college voters by 17 points (58-41).
Yet again, Emerson College's poll from today agrees, with President Trump leading strongly among voters who have
less than a 4-year degree.
Unlike Emerson which transparently reports its share of partisans and the 2020 vote recall, Des Moines Register
does NOT disclose the distribution of this information, even though they asked it in their survey.
Emerson College reports President Trump leading strongly 93-7 among Republicans, while getting 8% of
Democrats to Harris's 92%. President Trump solidly leads among independents 55-42.

MAGA copium is delicious.

Anonymous wrote:I think Nate Silver is freaking out a little lol. Even if Selzer's poll is off by 5 points, which is within her MOE (3.4 points for each candidate) it means this election won't be close at all and nobody is going to pay attention to poll aggregators anymore because most of the polls are complete garbage.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Selzer poll is generally considered the gold standard in polling. Dr. Selzer and her firm only tackle Iowa-level races, but it's the one poll that doesn't miss: she predicted Obama's caucus win in 2008, and Trump's wins in 2016 and 2020 (again, in Iowa) and was within 2% of the final margins - so even when people where saying that Biden was comfortably leading Trump, Seltzer's data was actually showing Trump winning Iowa by +7 or so (which meant the rest of the race in swing states was going to be much tighter, which it ended up being). This is the one poll that continued to output good quality results, even in the face of Trumpism and during the COVID years.

That is really good news to hear.

Anonymous wrote:The Selzer poll is generally considered the gold standard in polling. Dr. Selzer and her firm only tackle Iowa-level races, but it's the one poll that doesn't miss: she predicted Obama's caucus win in 2008, and Trump's wins in 2016 and 2020 (again, in Iowa) and was within 2% of the final margins - so even when people where saying that Biden was comfortably leading Trump, Seltzer's data was actually showing Trump winning Iowa by +7 or so (which meant the rest of the race in swing states was going to be much tighter, which it ended up being). This is the one poll that continued to output good quality results, even in the face of Trumpism and during the COVID years.

Anonymous wrote:TO: Trump Campaign Senior Leadership Team
FROM: Tony Fabrizio, Fabrizio Lee & Associates – Chief Pollster, DJTFP / RNC
Tim Saler, Grassroots Targeting – Chief Data Consultant, DJTFP / RNC
SUBJ: Des Moines Register outlier poll versus stable Emerson College survey of Iowa
DATE: November 2, 2024
BLUF: Des Moines Register is a clear outlier poll. Emerson College, released today, far more closely reflects the
state of the actual Iowa electorate and does so with far more transparency in their methodology.
Facts about voter registration & early voting:
Voter registration on Election Day 2020: R+0.5% (+10,547 voters)
Voter registration as of today: R+6.4% (+143,490 voters)
These figures include inactive voters; the margins are improved if reviewing only active voters.
Absentee & early voting as of this point in 2020: D+13 (-121,602 voters)
Absentee & early voting as of today: even (-20 voters)
To their credit, the Emerson College poll has an R+4 party split (below 2020 exit polls at R+10), and a Trump +8
recalled 2020 vote margin that aligns with reported returns. Emerson shows Trump ahead of Harris 53-43 in their
survey.
In the outlier Des Moines Register poll, they claim Harris leads with seniors (age 65+) by 19 points (55-36). In 2020,
President Trump carried seniors 54-45 over Biden according to CNN exit polls.
The Emerson College poll released today concurs with the CNN exits from 2020, with President Trump solidly
ahead 54-45 among voters aged 60-69, and 54-44 among voters aged 70+.
The Des Moines Register also claims Harris leads by 20 points among women (56-36). In 2020, President Trump
tied Biden 49-49 among women according to CNN exits.
Once again, Emerson College's poll today is more similar to the exits, showing instead a lead for President Trump of
5 points - 52-47.
Des Moines Register claims President Trump leads 51-39 among voters without a college degree. In 2020,
President Trump won non-college voters by 17 points (58-41).
Yet again, Emerson College's poll from today agrees, with President Trump leading strongly among voters who have
less than a 4-year degree.
Unlike Emerson which transparently reports its share of partisans and the 2020 vote recall, Des Moines Register
does NOT disclose the distribution of this information, even though they asked it in their survey.
Emerson College reports President Trump leading strongly 93-7 among Republicans, while getting 8% of
Democrats to Harris's 92%. President Trump solidly leads among independents 55-42.

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Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

NP. Was she wrong when she called Iowa for the obese orange man in 2016 and 2020?

She is now claiming there has been an astronomic 11 point shift leftward in one election cycle. That doesn’t happen with the political polarization in the country. Nothing in the 2022 midterms showed that Democrats were gaining ground in Iowa.

Post-Dobbs, new Democratic candidate, post J6, and voters have had 4 more years to "get to know" Donald Trump.

Plus it might not be an 11 point shift. Her margin for error is 3.4%. So it could be 5-8 point shift which is not actually weird. A lot of places saw a similar swing between Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016.

Voters outside of DC don’t give a shit about J6, and Trump’s favorability is higher than it has been.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's going to be hard for Trump to steal the election and thereby avoid prison if Iowa is even close..thank God.

Actually if you look at the recent electoral polls trump will still win if he loses iowa

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's going to be hard for Trump to steal the election and thereby avoid prison if Iowa is even close..thank God.

Actually if you look at the recent electoral polls trump will still win if he loses iowa